Dov Zakheim writes: Michael Auslin opens his book with a preface entitled “The Asia that Nobody Sees.” He might better have entitled it “Hiding in Plain Sight.” For far too long, but especially during the Obama years, policymakers chose to focus on Asia’s remarkable economic growth, coupled with an era of relative peace. Too often they overlooked economic, demographic, social, political and military tensions that did not lurk all that far below Asia’s shiny surface. – The National Interest
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The hit squad assembled here quickly from three countries and practiced at least twice at posh shopping malls before executing their brazen assault at the airport. Such emerging details are feeding suspicions here and in South Korea that the killing last week of Kim Jong Nam , half-brother of North Korea’s mercurial dictator, was a well-orchestrated plot directed from Pyongyang. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
The estranged half brother of Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, was assassinated in Malaysia this week, the South Korean news media reported Tuesday, citing an unidentified government source. – New York Times
Technical advancements in North Korea’s ballistic missile programs, demonstrated in the latest test-launch from a mobile launcher, pose a “clear, grave threat” to U.S. security, a Pentagon spokesman said Monday. – Associated Press
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres strongly condemned North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launch Monday ahead of an urgent meeting of the Security Council. – Associated Press The new type of ballistic missile launched by North Korea on Sunday has a range of more than 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles), according to South Korea's intelligence agency, the South's Yonhap News Agency reported on Tuesday. - Reuters Editorial: The United States must be willing to use sticks — such as sanctions and deploying missile defenses in South Korea — as well as carrots to end the North Korean threat. These studies, and many others, have emphasized how China is central to any such strategy. Mr. Trump, with his oft-touted dealmaking skills, enjoys a fresh chance to put the matter high on the agenda with China and tackle one of the world’s most pressing security problems. He should waste no time in doing so. – Washington Post
For 16 years, the United States has publicly refused to engage in direct talks with North Korea, arguing that doing so would reward its leader, Kim Jong-un, for bad behavior. In the meantime, the North raced ahead with its nuclear weapons program. Yet with a new president in the White House and South Korea’s leader under the threat of impeachment, a break from the longstanding stalemate suddenly seems possible. – New York Times
The absence of Kim Jong-nam — the eldest son of the family, who was bound by Korean tradition to preside over the funeral — was all the evidence outside analysts needed to see how isolated he had become from the center of power in North Korea, the world’s most secretive regime. – New York Times Kim Jong Un’s brother, who was killed in Malaysia on Monday, begged the North Korean leader to spare his life after escaping an earlier assassination attempt, the head of South Korean intelligence said on Wednesday. – Financial Times The astonishing assassination of North Korea leader Kim Jong Un's half-brother rippled across Asia on Wednesday as Malaysian investigators scoured airport surveillance video for clues about the two female assailants and rival South Korea offered up a single, shaky motive: paranoia. – Associated Press Editorial: The Trump Administration says it has launched a North Korea policy review, and not a moment too soon. Regardless of how or why Kim Jong Nam was killed, the U.S. and its allies need plans to handle a Pyongyang palace coup as well as a nuclear assault. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Patrick Cronin writes: The more Kim looks for invulnerability in nuclear missiles that threaten great powers, the more vulnerable Kim is apt to feel. This is not a call for or a forecast of regime change. Instead, it is a recognition of our national and collective strength and resilience, as well as a recognition that what the people of North Korea need will not be delivered on a nuclear-tipped missile. – The National Interest
North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un issued an assassination order to kill his half-brother after seizing power in 2011 and agents tried to execute it at least once before succeeding this week, South Korea’s top spy chief said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
What followed was an assassination that, complete with a honey trap and a public poisoning, has focused new attention on Kim Jong Un, the 33-year-old leader of North Korea, suggesting he will stop at nothing to keep power. – Washington Post Economists inside and outside China have long warned that China is making little progress bringing down the country’s dangerously-high debt levels. Some official voices are now joining in. – WSJ’s China Real Time Robert Samuelson writes: Given this background, it seems astounding that anyone would suggest that the TPP may rise from the dead, with a new name and slightly altered provisions. Yet that’s the message of a new study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank and unabashed advocate of TPP. – Washington Post Tunisian security forces are using methods in their war against Islamist militants that are associated with overthrown leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, including torture, arbitrary arrests and detentions, Amnesty International said on Monday. - Reuters
Why Aesthetics Matters in Both War & Politics, And Why Working, voting citizens Despise Major media2/14/2017
In the past week, at least 154 Christian families have fled their homes in Al Arish for Ismailia, the closest major city, according to church officials, marking the largest uprooting of Egyptians by violence in recent years. The escalating violence and intimidation against both Muslims and Christians have again exposed the weakness of the Egyptian army in the region, despite pledges by President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to restore security. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
The Tunisian government acknowledged fault on Wednesday for the way its police force responded when a gunman linked to the Islamic State went on a rampage in Sousse in June 2015. A spokesman for the Tunisian Justice Ministry confirmed that at least six police officers had been referred to trial for criminal negligence for failing to help the victims, most of them British tourists. – New York Times The head of Libya’s UN-backed government is to hold talks with top Russian officials in Moscow on Thursday as the Kremlin manoeuvres itself into a pivotal position in the north African state’s conflict. – Financial Times Few consider Ghwell a serious contender for power. But in recent weeks the ex-prime minister has bolstered his presence at his base four km from the heart of the capital, in an increasingly brazen challenge aimed at undermining a U.N.-backed government that was meant to shepherd Libya toward peace. - Reuters Egypt's former president Hosni Mubarak denied on Thursday involvement in the killing of protesters during the 2011 uprising that ended his 30-year rule as his final retrial in the case began. - Reuters This week, Somalia, which has languished without a functioning central government for more than 25 years and has been propped up by billions of dollars of American aid, is holding an innovative, closely watched presidential election that United Nations officials have billed as a “milestone.” But several analysts, investigators and some Western diplomats say the election has turned out to be a milestone of corruption, one of the most fraudulent political events in Somalia’s history – New York Times
The newly installed Trump administration is eyeing an opportunity to revamp the U.S. domestic missile defense system to combat evolving threats posed by Iran, China, North Korea, and other rogue regimes, according to senior White House officials and new congressional communication disclosing how nations across the globe are "working diligently to exploit the many gaps and seams" in America's current defenses. – Washington Free Beacon
North Korea, Iran, PRC & What is to be done? GordonGChang. @thadmccotter.
“…The general’s surprise downfall was the latest indication that even top lieutenants are at risk as Mr. Kim has rival agencies monitor one another to detect and punish any sign of disrespect or disloyalty. Until his dismissal, General Kim had been Mr. Kim’s chief henchman in purging potential enemies. “Kim Won-hong has been a key aide to Kim Jong-un and has buttressed his reign of terror,” Mr. Jeong said. “His dismissal could further deepen unrest among officials and add to the instability of the regime by weakening its control on the people.” Mr. Jeong said General Kim was accused of corruption and held responsible for various human rights violations, including torture, committed at his agency. But other political machinations could be at play behind the dismissal, Mr. Jeong said, citing speculation about a rivalry among different power centers. Mr. Jeong noted that the dismissal resulted from an investigation by another powerful agency, the Organization and Guidance Department of the governing Workers’ Party of North Korea. The department supervises all state agencies and is reportedly directly overseen by Mr. Kim. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/world/asia/north-korea-purge-kim-jong-un-kim-won-hong.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0 There's a way to stop Iran's and North Korea's missile programs, but Washington has not tried it yet. https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2017/02/05/will-trumps-next-iran-sanctions-target-chinas-banks/#4e52ddfa1fc1
Mark Dubowitz and Behnam Ben Taleblu write: The administration could also accelerate the process, both technical and diplomatic, of getting America’s Middle East partners and allies to integrate existing ballistic missile defense systems. But most important, the U.S. can respond against future missile tests by targeting sectors of the Iranian economy that underwrite, procure, produce, develop, and house those capabilities. – The Hill
Negotiating an Advance
From David C. Benson, Strategy Bridge: “When faced with a rising power, states essentially have two options: balancing (resisting the rising power), and bandwagoning (accepting the rising power, or even helping it). Balancing comes in two forms: internal and external. Internal balancing means strengthening oneself in order to pursue or resist deterrence or coercion. In other words, one builds one’s own military or government capacity. By building internal capacity, one hopes to be able to either deter other states from doing something, or resist their attempts to coerce you into doing something. In this case we are concerned with deterring Russian intervention.” The Foundation of U.S. Presence in East Asia From Stratfor: “The United States' partnership with Japan is a legacy of Washington's efforts to contain the spread of communism in Asia during the Cold War. Since then, Japan has hosted U.S. troops on its soil, and today, roughly 54,000 American military personnel are stationed on the Japanese islands. This is a mutually beneficial arrangement for Tokyo and Washington, at once strengthening Japan's self-defense capabilities and enabling the United States to project its military power, and particularly its unrivaled maritime prowess, in the region . . . ” Washington Institute for Near East Policy: Guiding Principles for U.S. Policy in the Middle East2/6/2017
Report: The scope of Iranian combat operations in Syria guarantees that Iran will remain a dominant player on the ground, regardless of any shifts in Russia’s official position on Iranian involvement. Russia has outsourced the ground campaign to Iran and would not be willing to commit the many thousands of Russian troops required to replace Iranian troops or Iranian-backed proxies in the conflict. Most importantly, it signals that Iran’s leaders have decided for the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic to focus on developing a conventional force projection capability that can seriously challenge the armed forces of its neighbors. The balance of power in the region may be forever altered by that decision. – American Enterprise Institute/Institute for the Study of War
Peddling Peril: How the Secret Nuclear Trade Arms America's Enemies by David Albright
From Publishers Weekly Albright, founder and president of the Institute for Science and International Security, offers an uneven exposé on the illicit trade in nuclear technology and the threats it poses to American security. Following in the traces of such earlier investigations as Gordon Correra's Shopping for Bombs (2006), Albright details how the convergence of easy money and weak [export] controls on the sale of high tech equipment created a perfect storm that was easily exploited by North Korea and such rogue proliferators as A.Q. Khan, the founder of Pakistan's nuclear program, who established a transnational network of smugglers to sell nuclear weapons capabilities to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. Albright also examines the efforts of al-Qaeda to obtain nuclear weapons and the cat-and-mouse game between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency over that nation's nuclear ambitions. While acknowledging that nuclear proliferation is difficult to detect and stop, the author cautions against fatalism—a deadly foe—but the turgid prose and esoteric nuclear tutorials slow the narrative and likely will tax the understanding, if not patience, of lay readers. Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. A former CIA and NSA intelligence analyst who heads an organization that monitors nuclear proliferation, Albright traces in disturbing detail exactly how nuclear technology has proliferated worldwide in the last 20 years. The trail leads back to the infamous Pakistani nuclear specialist A. Q. Khan, who began by stealing technology back in the 1970s from under the noses of his easily duped Dutch employer and a lax Dutch government, then sharing it, first with his home country and subsequently with Iran, Libya, and North Korea, along with Iraq, South Africa, even al-Qaeda. The shock is not only how far-reaching was Khan’s mischief but also how easily he carried it out, working with all-too-willing suppliers and around national governments that had neither the monitoring capabilities nor—even when Khan’s actions were discovered—the political will to stop him. Albright argues for establishing universal laws and norms against nuclear smuggling, securing existing nuclear stocks, and developing a globally interconnected system that would provide early detection of nuclear trade. A book that puts into context our genuine nuclear peril, while offering concrete ideas on how to reduce it. --Alan Moores https://www.amazon.com/Peddling-Peril-Nuclear-Americas-Enemies/dp/1416549315/ref=la_B001HPEB5C_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1486339458&sr=1-1 Beijing's Missiles on "The 1st Island Chain" Arrive & U.S. Policy for Managing A Rising China2/6/2017 CHINA: China Showcases New First Island Chain Ballistic Missile From AP: “A highly accurate Chinese ballistic missile capable of threatening U.S. and Japanese bases in Asia has made its latest appearance at recent Rocket Force drills. While the Rocket Force boasts an extensive armory of missiles of various ranges, the DF-16 fills a particular role in extending China's reach over waters it seeks to control within what it calls the "first-island chain."” Derek Scissors writes: Next year will probably be difficult for Sino–American economic relations. It should be. The United States has for many years avoided coming to grips with problems that will be painful to solve. The incoming administration will have to adopt and, crucially, hold to a strategy that makes sense for 2017, not 2007 or 1997. If it does, Beijing can be pushed away from some of its anti-competitive practices, and President Trump can fulfill a key promise to make trade and investment with China work better for America – National Review Online
Editorial: Narendra Modi’s fourth budget deserves praise for what it didn’t do. Despite imminent elections in five states, the Indian Prime Minister resisted the temptation to woo voters with expensive giveaways. He didn’t raise the long-term capital-gains tax or soak foreign portfolio investors. Instead he continued to boost capital spending on roads and railways while putting India’s public finances in order. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Sadanand Dhume writes: The BJP’s leftward lurch is probably due in part to opposition taunts that it was too pro-business. The government’s chief economic advisor, Arvind Subramanian, suggests that the problem may go even deeper. He noted in a report released ahead of the budget that “India has distinctly anti-market beliefs relative to others.” Whatever the reason, it’s time to accept that whatever else Mr. Modi uses his 2014 mandate for, it will not be to dramatically reform Asia’s third-largest economy. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Benjamin Weinthal writes: Dire warnings have been issued about a pending implosion in Algeria and a flood of migrants to Europe. At least one prominent Algerian expert views this prediction as off the mark. Nonetheless, the dangerous mix of radical Islamism, economic instability, and growing youth unrest could be the recipe for a new Arab revolt in North Africa. – National Review Online
General David Petraeus, USA (Ret.) testified: Perhaps it is in the nature of humanity that, only when we came to grasp fully how bad things could be, were we capable of galvanizing ourselves to set them right. That is also the great responsibility, and equally great opportunity, that those in positions of power have before them now – to conjure out of the accelerating crises and deepening challenges of the moment a world that is better than the one we inherited. And it is my hope that we will demonstrate the will and commit the resources needed to do just that. - House Armed Services Committee (PDF)
John McLaughlin testified: Unlike during the Cold War, the enemy now is not a singular competing ideology but rather a struggle over the rules governing international conduct and over global leadership. I firmly believe that the United States — and the world — will run great risks if America neglects its leadership responsibilities. No other nation has a record of leading with both its own interests and the global common good in mind - House Armed Services Committee (PDF)
Editorial: Rolling back the gains Iran has made across the Middle East in the past decade will be, at best, a work of years. To succeed, the Trump administration will have to clarify priorities: Russia, which it regards as a potential ally in the region, has become Iran’s strategic partner. Leaving the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad in place will lock in Iranian domination where it matters most. Until it has a strategy for addressing such challenges, the administration will find it hard to impress the mullahs. – Washington Post
John Bolton writes: Time always works on the side of nuclear proliferators, and the Iran deal is providing the ayatollahs with protective camouflage. Every day Washington lets pass without ripping the deal up is a day of danger for America and its friends. We proceed slowly at our peril. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Fred Fleitz writes: Putting Iran on notice is significant because it signals the return to the global stage of a strong and decisive United States prepared to reinstate the successful national-security strategy of President Ronald Reagan: “peace through strength.” Such a jolt to the international order could convince rogue states such as Iran and North Korea to dial back their destabilizing behavior and possibly agree to talks to address regional concerns about their missile and weapons-of-mass-destruction programs. – National Review Online
Reinforcing the Front Line: U.S. Defense Strategy and the Rise of China
From Evan B. Montgomery, CSBA: “With some of the world’s largest economies, most vital sea lanes, and closest U.S. allies, the Asia-Pacific Region is quickly becoming centrally important to today’s international system. It is also home to the first new great power of the twenty-first century: the People’s Republic of China. Managing China’s rise will not be easy.”
Benn Steil and Emma Smith write: Raising the interest rates China charges on overseas lending is, however, not without costs. China would have to stop subsidizing its companies in order to win foreign contracts, as well as its efforts aimed at putting dollars to the service of geostrategic objectives. In short, it would mean China behaving more like a mature developed country. For China and the world, this is the better path for it to take. It would eliminate a source of both financial instability and political friction. – The Weekly Standard
Andrew Krepinevich writes: The military balance in the Western Pacific has been shifting sharply in China’s favor in recent years. It will continue to do so without a major effort by America and its allies in that region to preserve a stable balance of power. A strategy to accomplish this needs to be developed. Given the time such a strategy will take to implement, the effort must start now, before it’s too late. Let’s hope Secretary Mattis’ trip is only the first step in this important effort. – Breaking Defense |
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