India’s governing party on Saturday appointed a firebrand Hindu cleric to lead the country’s most populous state, a turning point for a government that has, until now, steered clear of openly embracing far-right Hindu causes. – New York Times
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[S]ome critics say Tillerson has bent too far, handing Beijing what Chinese news media reports are calling a “diplomatic victory.” After meeting China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Saturday, Tillerson voiced Chinese catchphrases about the relationship, including the avoidance of conflict and confrontation and the need to build “mutual respect” and strive for “win-win” cooperation. – Washington Post Out of Time in North Korea
From Richard N. Haass, The Strategist (ASPI): “There is a growing consensus that the first genuine crisis of Donald Trump’s presidency could involve North Korea and, more specifically, its ability to place a nuclear warhead on one or more ballistic missiles possessing sufficient range and accuracy to reach the continental United States. A crisis could stem from other factors as well: a large increase in the number of nuclear warheads that North Korea produces, evidence that it is selling nuclear materials to terrorist groups, or some use of its conventional military forces against South Korea or US forces stationed there." Russia starts construction of new nuclear reactor in IranRosatom, Russia's nuclear corporation, announced Wednesday that construction and installation of the second unit of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southwestern Iran has begun. Russia and Iran signed a $10 billion deal in November 2014 for the construction of two reactors at Bushehr-2 with a total capacity of 2,100 megawatts. RUSSIA: Russia's Deadly "Delta Force"
From Dave Majumdar: “Incorporating lessons from Western special operations forces (SOF), the Kremlin had established its own equivalent of the U.S. Army’s elite 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment-Delta—better known as Delta Force. This new force is called Special Operations Command, known by its Russian acronym as KSSO.” Rival factions fight for control of TripoliForces loyal to Libya’s UN-backed Government of National Accord seized the headquarters of a rival prime minister in Tripoli on Wednesday following heavy fighting that erupted earlier this week over control of a bank. Khalifa Ghwell, leader of the self-declared National Salvation Government, was injured in the clashes, and a television station supportive of him was forced off the air. In the east, the Tobrouk-based House of Representatives on Wednesday urged the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by strongman Khalifa Hifter, to hand over two major oil ports that the LNA seized from a rival faction earlier this week. The parliament's energy committee said it is ready to move forward with its own National Oil Corporation independent of Tripoli, suggesting that it may try to leverage the east’s control over oil ports despite international sanctions. Armed groups aligned with a Libyan government in Tripoli that is backed by the United Nations took over a compound occupied by the leader of a rival government on Wednesday after heavy fighting that spread to several parts of the city. – New York Times
Libya's eastern parliament said on Wednesday it supported ending a deal to unify the country's National Oil Corporation (NOC), a day after eastern forces recaptured major oil ports from a rival faction. - Reuters West Africa
Four female teenage suicide bombers killed two people and injured 16 others in a residential area in the northeast Nigerian city of Maiduguri, a disaster agency spokesman said on Wednesday. - Reuters Islamist militant sect Boko Haram on Tuesday released a video purporting to show the execution of three men the group accused of being Nigerian military spies. - Reuters East Africa The U.S. has increasing security concerns about China’s first overseas military base close to the hub of operations for U.S. Africa Command in Djibouti, a U.S. commander told Congress – Military.com The African Union is making itself complicit in South Sudan's bloodshed by failing to set up a court to try atrocities, members of a U.N. human rights investigation said on Tuesday. - Reuters Pirates off the coast of Somalia, who hijacked an oil tanker with eight Sri Lankan crew on board, are demanding a ransom for the release of the vessel, the EU Naval Force said. - Reuters Interview: Mr. Kagame sat down with Wall Street Journal Editor in Chief Gerard Baker to discuss, among other things, the move toward populism in the U.S. and Europe and what it might mean for Africa as a whole and for Rwanda. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) The Continent Since 2015 about a dozen African countries have had wide-ranging internet shutdowns, often during elections. Rights defenders say the blackouts are conducive to carrying out serious abuses. The internet outages also can inflict serious damage on the economies of African countries that desperately seek growth, according to research by the Brookings Institution think tank. – Associated Press Interview: Neanda Salvaterra, a reporter for The Wall Street Journal, discussed plans and concerns about African power development with Jay Ireland, president and chief executive of GE Africa, and Elizabeth L. Littlefield, former president and CEO of the Overseas Private Investment Corp., the U.S. government’s development-finance agency. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Lee Smith writes: The main point is this: While the Trump cabinet is at daggers drawn, while it can’t hire the staff to implement the policies the president campaigned on—to destroy ISIS, to reign in Iran and crash the nuclear deal, to protect American citizens and interests, and to realign with allies like Israel that Obama made vulnerable—there are much more decisive and deadly conflicts going on almost everywhere around the world. The people who are handling key elements of those conflicts now are the same people who handled those areas under Obama, despite the results of the last election. No wonder the results look equally awful. - Tablet
Hannah Suh Harry Krejsa, and Mira Rapp-Hooper write: The Trump administration should learn from the failures and build upon the successes of the rebalance. Regardless of the title used to identify these efforts, American force posture, security assistance, military innovation, and new concepts of operation should all support a broader strategy for Asia if the new administration hopes to maintain military access to the seas and skies of the Western Pacific. – War on the Rocks
Sarah Cook and Annie Boyajian write: U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s first trip to China this week will set the tone for the U.S.-China relationship under the Trump administration. It is critical that he raise human rights as a core U.S. principle, as a matter that directly affects American businesses and nonprofits, and as a strategically important symbol of U.S. resolve, signaling that the administration will not simply acquiesce to the Chinese government’s long-standing insistence that Washington has no right to question the country’s dreadful record of political repression. – The Diplomat
At a time of multiplying tensions in Asia, Rex W. Tillerson, the American secretary of state, began his first major foreign trip in Japan and said on Thursday that the United States needed a “different approach” to North Korea’s escalating nuclear threat, though he declined to give specifics. – New York Times
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will warn China’s leaders that the United States is prepared to step up missile defenses and pressure on Chinese financial institutions if they fail to use their influence to restrain North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, according to several officials involved in planning his first mission to Asia. – New York Times
The threat from North Korea — nuclear-armed, impoverished and deeply suspicious of a potential U.S. attack — is the centerpiece of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to Asia beginning Wednesday. It was also the main topic for Defense Secretary Jim Mattis’s Asia trip last month — his first as the Pentagon chief. – Washington Post
South Koreans will go to the polls in May to elect a successor to Park Geun-hye, whose presidency ended last week in a historic court ruling, the government announced on Wednesday. – New York Times American and Korean captains of industry gathered on Wednesday in a convention center here to mark the fifth anniversary of the U.S.-South Korean trade pact. But it was a nervous celebration. Many were worried the U.S. will try to renegotiate or even abrogate the hard-fought agreement, which many tout as “the gold standard,” after U.S. President Donald Trump deemed it detrimental to American interests. Mr. Trump already scrapped American participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was structured on the Korean deal. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) The U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) deployed to South Korea earlier this month and while the missile-muting shield is meant to keep North Korean nuclear ambitions in check it is also driving the Chinese to distraction. – Scout Warrior Anthony Blinken writes: What, if anything, can change his strategic calculus? The answer is a comprehensive, sustained and relentless international pressure campaign, led by the United States, South Korea, Japan and China, that raises the price of Mr. Kim’s obstinacy to the point that he believes his survival is in jeopardy. – New York Times Joel Wit and Richard Sokolsky write: Fair or not, Secretary Tillerson has been pilloried by the press and pundits as missing in action. This sensitive diplomatic mission offers him an opportunity to show his mettle. The last thing Washington needs, at a time when America’s global leadership and position in Asia is under challenge, is for Secretary Tillerson to leave the region empty-handed, or in worse shape than he found it. – The National Interest Minxin Pei writes: Unless the upcoming summit reaches a grand bargain that stabilizes U.S.-China relations across the board, the risks that the Trump administration will push back against China on trade and security will remain high and China will have little incentive to help America out where North Korea is concerned. If anything, the unfolding crisis in North Korea could get far more dangerous – The Atlantic Trump hosts Saudi deputy crown prince at the White HouseUS President Donald Trump met at the White House with Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman on Tuesday to discuss regional issues and economic relations. A Saudi adviser called the meeting a “turning point” in US-Saudi ties, which had become strained under the Barack Obamaadministration, mainly over the nuclear deal with Iran. Trump said he hoped that the Saudis and other Gulf allies would assist the United States on a number of issues, including the creation of safe zones in Syria and Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
Syria's civil war began six years ago this week as a popular revolt against the brutal regime of President Bashar Assad. Now a domestic uprising that has left an estimated 500,00 dead and millions homeless has morphed into a global war, sucking major powers into a conflict growing more volatile by the day. – USA Today
Iraqi forces prepare to take Mosul’s Grand MosqueIraqi forces set their sights on the Grand Mosque of Mosul's Old City today, as Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said the battle to drive out Islamic State (IS) militants is reaching its final stages. Iraq's Joint Operations Command announced Tuesday that 80% of Mosul has been liberated. Federal police said that its forces had killed the military commander for the Old City, Abu Abdul Rahman al-Ansary, on Tuesday during operations to clear the Bab al-Tob district. Iraqi forces also control the Mosul train station, which links Basra and Baghdad to Turkey.
Turkey seeks to unite Syrian Arab tribes against IS and KurdsTurkey hosted a gathering of Syrian Arab tribes to create a united front against Islamic State (IS) and Kurdish fighters, Turkish media reported Tuesday. Some 50 tribal leaders from Raqqa, Hasakah and Deir ez-Zor gathered in Turkey's southeastern city of Sanliurfa to discuss military and political cooperation. They agreed to form the “Army of Al Jazira and Euphrates tribes” to liberate their lands from IS and the US-allied Kurdish Democratic Union Party. The united force is to be led by former Syrian regime officers or Free Syrian Army commanders, a joint statement said.
African top brass, representing nearly half of the countries that make up the continent, came to the Army War College last week and made the case for stronger leadership roles as they combat challenges in their respective nations. But while the African military leaders there said they want to take the lead and, in some cases, feel capable, U.S. assistance is indispensable in helping build capacity to deal with a diverse array of challenges. – Defense News Tunisia’s top diplomat says the Trump administration should “reach out more” to the tiny North African nation for collaboration against the evolving threat posed by the Islamic State — and to bolster the fragile island of democracy Tunisians are struggling to uphold in the Arab world. – Washington Times Russia appears to have deployed special forces to an airbase in western Egypt near the border with Libya in recent days, U.S., Egyptian and diplomatic sources say, a move that would add to U.S. concerns about Moscow's deepening role in Libya. - Reuters Fierce clashes resumed on Monday at a tower block complex in southwest Benghazi where forces loyal to Libya's eastern government have been battling for weeks to dislodge rival fighters, a security official said. - Reuters Eastern Libya forces recapture major oil portsThe eastern-based Libyan National Army, led by Russia-backed strongman Khalifa Hifter, regained control on Tuesday of the major oil terminals of Ras Lanuf and Sidra from a rival faction, its spokesman, Ahmed al-Mismari, said. The Benghazi Defense Brigades, which had seized the oil ports earlier this month, withdrew toward the coastal town of Harawa, while airstrikes against them continued late on Tuesday, according to a Libyan air force official.
South Sudanese rebels have kidnapped eight locals working for a U.S. charity and are demanding aid deliveries as ransom, a military spokesman said on Monday, as food in the famine-hit nation looks increasingly likely to become a weapon of war. - Reuters
Hundreds of soldiers went on strike in the Somali capital on Sunday, blocking roads and forcing businesses to close in protest over unpaid salaries, a challenge for the new president who has vowed to defeat Islamist militant group, al Shabaab. - Reuters Former CIA Deputy Director Mike Morell said on Saturday that the WikiLeaks' dump of documents it claims are from the top-secret CIA hacking program is "absolutely" an "inside job." – Washington Examiner
Russian Military Outposts: Tripwires or Lily-Pads? From John DeRosa, Strategy Bridge: "The Russian National Security Strategy establishes its military defense and status as a world power as two of its most enduring strategic security interests. It further notes, the top threats to its national security include North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), foreign militaries’ encroachment on its borders, and armed conflicts in neighboring countries. In response to these threats, Russia’s military doctrine prioritizes national defense, strategic deterrence, and the mobilization and deployment of forces in “dangerous strategic directions.” Given these interests, threats, and military priorities, the string of military outposts of the former Soviet Union from the Baltic to the Black Sea can serve either as defensive or offensive means. Assessing the defensive and offensive dispositions of these outposts aids in evaluating their role and utility in Russia’s military strategy." An Outdated Message to Garcia: Why Hubbard’s Essay Needs to Be Shelved for Good From Adam Maisel and Will DuVal, Modern War Institute: “Long a staple of military professional reading lists, “A Message to Garcia,” written by Elbert Hubbard continues to be considered among the most important literary works on leadership—and followership. It held a place of prominence on the Marine Corps Commandant’s reading list from the first list in 1989 all the way through 2015. We have both personally witnessed it being praised in various military education and professional development venues. And our experiences raised serious questions about the work’s enduring value. The lesson intended to be derived from the story is unclear, and its applicability to the modern military professional is far from certain. Despite being written over a century ago for a world that no longer exists, “A Message to Garcia” is still frequently referenced as a seminal text for young officers and NCOs. It’s time to retire it from that vaunted position in the professional development canon.” Why Russia Will Keep Cheating on the INF Treaty
From William McHenry, Small Wars Journal: “We must understand that Moscow will continue to cheat on the INF treaty, so it is important to explore the root causes of Russian misbehavior. Putin has decided to disregard the INF treaty due to China’s growing military strength and Russia’s own military doctrine. Furthermore, Russia violating the treaty helps Putin fulfill his long-term goal of weakening NATO.” It has long been accepted wisdom that Ms. Le Pen and her far-right party can make it through the first round of the presidential voting on April 23, when she and four other candidates will be on the ballot, but that she will never capture the majority needed to win in a runoff in May. But a visit to this southeastern National Front stronghold suggests that Ms. Le Pen may be succeeding in broadening her appeal to the point where a victory is more plausible, even if the odds are still stacked against her. – New York Times
U.S., CHINA: Locking Horns on Missile Defense Against North Korea
From Matthew Pennington, AP: “China is concerned that THAAD has powerful radar that could track Chinese missiles and weaken its deterrence against the United States. Beijing said Tuesday it will take "necessary measures" to protect itself and warning that the U.S. and South Korea should be prepared to bear the consequences.” CHINA: China Reorients Strategic Military Intelligence From Peter Mattis, IHS Jane's: “On 26 November 2015, Chinese president Xi Jinping announced the first significant revision of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) since its reorganisation during the 1950s, when the PLA transformed from an army fighting a civil war to one capable of protecting a nation-state. The reforms removed the Soviet-inspired system of general departments, established a new division of labour, and realigned the PLA organisationally to better fulfil the Military Strategic Guidelines that state the goal of "winning informationised local wars."”
North Korea’s test launch of four ballistic missiles Monday — three of which crashed into the Sea of Japan — prompted a swift and harsh reaction from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who said the development showed that Pyongyang now represents a “a new level of threat” to Tokyo and the world. – Washington Times
Alarmed over North Korea’s increasingly provocative behavior, the United States said Tuesday that it had started to deploy an antimissile system in South Korea that China has angrily opposed as a threat to its security. – New York Times
China warned Tuesday of “consequences” for South Korea over the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile system, raising regional tension and questions about China’s commitment to free, open trade. – Washington Post South Korea’s embattled president colluded with a confidante to extract $37 million from Samsung in return for granting favorable treatment to the corporate behemoth, special prosecutors asserted Monday after a 75-day investigation of the corruption scandal that has been roiling the country. – Washington Post South Korea will consider filing a complaint against China to the World Trade Organization over what it described as trade retaliation for the deployment of a U.S. anti-missile system outside of Seoul, the ruling party said on Tuesday. - Reuters North Korea warned Monday that U.S.-South Korean military exercises, which it called "the most undisguised nuclear war maneuvers," are driving the Korean Peninsula and northeast Asia toward "nuclear disaster." – Associated Press Editorial: Inducing Pyongyang’s elites to defect isn’t easy, not least because Kim Jong Un punishes family members left behind. But Seoul’s move shows welcome recognition that the key to stopping the North Korean regime is to hasten its collapse. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) |
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