Director of Expeditionary Warfare on the chief of naval operations’ staff (OPNAV N95) Marine Maj. Gen. David Coffman recently toured forces in the Pacific, and in an interview after his trip he told USNI News that, especially in that region of the world, the force needs to shift from a focus on “forward-deployed, forward-engaged, crisis response” operations to a preparation for higher-end crisis, contingency operations and major combat operations. - USNI
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Walter Russell Mead writes: It would be a mistake to be too pessimistic about the U.S.-Turkish alliance. While relations are frosty, the core interests of the two countries, which diverged after the collapse of the Soviet Union, are again closely aligned. The Russian-Iranian partnership now dominating Syria and upending the regional balance of power is Turkey’s worst nightmare come true. - Wall Street Journal Putin's quest for control in the former Soviet empire Leon Aron | AEI Russia's economic challenges, combined with diplomatic pressure applied by the US and its European allies, could make Moscow more inclined to accommodate the West. Or Russia could double down on its attempts at destabilization in its near abroad through direct and indirect military intervention and territorial conquest. Turkish forces are reportedly poised to enter the embattled city of Afrin in northwest Syria, the culmination of a two-month-old campaign against Syrian Kurdish militia. But it’s not clear what Turkey sees as a victory, according to Amb. James Jeffrey, former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Iraq. He offers a way for the U.S. and Turkey to secure a compromise:
The U.S. has tried desperately to get Turkey, a NATO ally, to agree to some sort of joint U.S.-Turkish or international patrols to guarantee the security of its southern border, but Turkey is insisting all Kurds in the north be relocated east of the Euphrates River, and in particular that they be evicted from Manbij. - Defense News
In the last three years of war, Iraq’s Shiite-led government has overcome challenges posed by Sunni insurgents and Kurdish separatists. But now it faces a reckoning among its core Shiite constituency, including many who fought to keep the country united and paid with the deaths of their sons and fathers. - Wall Street Journal The Syrian government and its allies had managed overnight to split the enclave, eastern Ghouta, into three blocs, each surrounded and besieged, leaving Mr. Habaq suddenly separated from his family, he said by phone. - New York Times 7 Years On, Syria War Shifting Gears But Still Deadly
quoting Fabrice Balanche via AFP Syria enters its eighth year of war on Thursday, free of the jihadist "caliphate" but torn apart by an international power struggle as the regime presses its blistering reconquest. Talks with North Korea are a zero-sum game. Here’s how to play it. Nicholas Eberstadt | The Washington Post High-level meetings with North Korea are a zero-sum game. Any gains by Seoul or Washington are losses for Pyongyang — and vice versa. Team North is looking for unforced errors and extracted concessions to consolidate its nuclear status, fund its programs, split the US–South Korea alliance, and delegitimize the South. Anne Gearan writes: President Trump says he will “talk denuclearization” at his planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un — a word he has emphasized to underscore the tough line he plans to take in the most surprising foreign policy development of his presidency. But the diplomatic buzzword can mean different things to different players on the world stage. - Washington Post
Hong Seok-hyun writes: If Trump has a shrewd eye on the chessboard, he should be able to discern North Korea’s deeply rooted anti-China sentiment. Trump should use his supposedly forthcoming meeting with Kim Jong Un as a golden opportunity to maintain U.S. influence in Northeast Asia. - Washington Post Russian Spy Case: Dead Men Walking By Kyle Wilson, the interpreter: “The policy of assassinating those abroad deemed traitors goes back to the Cheka, the secret police set up by Vladimir Lenin in 1917, succeeded by the KGB and today’s FSB. Punish Russia For Skripal Murder, Or Prepare To Face Bolder Putin Attacks by Markos Kounalakis via Sacramento Bee Global spy games just got a little more dangerous with the byzantine poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal in the medieval-era UK city of Salisbury. Leon Aron describes Vladimir Putin’s March 1 speech as an explosive mixture of militarism, chauvinism, and paranoia. The address, which included references to nuclear-armed cruise missiles and nuclear armed submarine drones, was intended to affirm Putin’s argument that Russia is at war to drive Russians to reelect Putin on March 18. It also served to remind Westerners that though its conventional forces may be weak, Russia can still escalate any confrontation to a nuclear doomsday. Continue here. In brief: To have and to hold: Putin’s quest for control in the former Soviet empire Leon Aron | American Enterprise Institute Leon Aron on Russian threats to Europe and Central Asia Spencer Moore, Cecilia Gallogly, and Leon Aron | Banter Leon Aron discusses the threat Vladimir Putin’s Russia poses to countries in Europe and Central Asia. Aron recently released a collection of essays titled “To Have and to Hold: Putin’s Quest for Control in the Former Soviet Empire.” The essays assess the likelihood of Russian intervention in six neighboring countries. After a thorough examination of Russian forces’ military posture, Frederick W. Kaganreaches a startling conclusion in his new report for the Institute for the Study of War: US leaders and their European allies are unprepared for the ways in which Putin is poised to wage war in Ukraine and the Baltic. The Russian military is well positioned to launch a conventional war in Ukraine and a hybrid war in the Baltic States, the opposite of what Western leaders seem to be expecting in each theater. Read the full report. Editorial: Like the 2006 murder of Alexander Litvinenko, another British informant, who was poisoned with radioactive polonium 210, the attack on Mr. Skripal was intended to be as horrific, frightening and public as possible.The blame has been made clearer this time and this attack on a NATO ally needs a powerful response both from that organization and, perhaps more important, by the United States. - New York Times Chemical Weapons Are Back, Thanks to Russia
The banned agents are increasingly being used for assassination and terror.
The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda
By Bruce Hoffman, the interpreter: “Nearly seven years after the killing of Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda is numerically larger and present in more countries than at any other time in its history.”
Michael P. Dempsey writes: Nearly three years on from the Islamic State’s high water mark in the summer of 2015, there are several lessons that the United States and its allies can discern from the terrorist group’s meteoric rise to control large parts of Iraq and Syria to the loss of its physical caliphate late last year. - War on the Rocks
A key defense lawmaker wants to know why, after more than 10 years of operations in Africa, the U.S. combatant command for the continent still isn’t located there. - Defense News
Xi Jinping’s ‘rule for life’: dealing with two risks
EMANUELE SCIMIA The National People's Congress (NPC), China’s rubber-stamp legislative body, approved the removal of presidential term limits on Sunday, meaning Xi Jinping can potentially remain president for life. Aside from value judgments about a lack of rule of law in the Asian country, as well as the authoritarian nature of the Chinese regime, Xi’s elevation as the most powerful ruler after Communist China’s founder Mao Zedong will pose two risks. The first is a quite likely...
China is considering paring back annual summits with eastern European countries that have fueled concerns in western capitals that Beijing is seeking to divide the continent, according to three European diplomats. - Reuters
China will strengthen punishment of intellectual property rights violations and provide equal protection to both Chinese and foreign companies, the head of the intellectual property rights office said on Tuesday. - Reuters Following passage of a constitutional amendment potentially making him president-for-life, China’s Xi Jinping moved to further expand his powers Tuesday with the establishment of a powerful new anti-corruption agency. - Associated Press Erica Frantz, Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Joseph Wright write: Research on how to measure a leader’s personalism sheds light on these developments and how Xi’s moves compare with those in other regimes, like Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Kim Jong Un’s North Korea or Paul Kagame’s Rwanda. - Washington Post
Deterring Russian First Use of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: ““Moscow’s military doctrine on the use of nuclear weapons has been evolving and probably has served as the justification for the development of very low-yield, high-precision nuclear weapons...”
RUSSIA: Russia Test-fires Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile
By Daniel Uria, UPI: “The Kinzhal hypersonic missile was launched from an MiG-31 interceptor jet, which departed from an airfield in the Southern Military District.”
What can be done to counter Russia’s combining of conventional and nuclear threats with hybrid warfare to operate successfully in places such as Ukraine and Syria? In a Hill op-ed, Kagan and Catherine Harris argue that it’s time for the US to take swift action to combat Russian aggressions. We can start by disrupting Russian efforts to co-opt disgruntled minorities, even as we prepare to stop Russian armored columns in places such as Eastern Europe. Read more here.
http://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/256899/left-right-russiagate
Syrian rebels who have joined Turkey’s cross-border offensive against a Kurdish enclave say they see the assault as a way to settle personal scores, and reports are mounting of looting and summary executions carried out by the Syrian fighters. - Washington Post
Syrian government forces seized vast swaths of territory including farmland in the opposition-held suburbs of Damascus on Wednesday, effectively dividing the besieged enclave in two and further squeezing rebels and tens of thousands of civilians trapped inside, state media and a war monitor reported. - Associated Press A second aid convoy will attempt to reach desperate residents of Syria's Eastern Ghouta rebel enclave later Thursday after weeks of pummeling by government forces and Russian warplanes in defiance of UN calls for a halt to violence. - Agence France Presse The Syrian army is poised to slice rebel-held eastern Ghouta in two as forces advancing from the east link up with troops at the enclave’s western edge, a pro-Damascus military commander said on Thursday. - Reuters French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Thursday pressed Russia and Iran to use their influence over Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad to ensure Damascus respects a U.N. resolution calling for a 30-day ceasefire. - Reuters Options to Build Local Capabilities to Stabilise the Lake Chad Region By Fulan Nasrullah, Divergent Options: “United States investment in building local capabilities is a necessity for both the U.S. and Lake Chad regional states, both to degrade active non-state armed groups in the region, and to build, foster, and maintain stability.” The United States military has carried out twice as many airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Libya since President Trump took office as it has publicly acknowledged, raising questions about whether the Pentagon has sought to obscure operations in the strife-torn North African nation. - New York Times
As Egyptian security forces intensify their campaign against Islamic State in the north Sinai region, authorities have isolated the area’s largest city, in a sign of how the insurgency has shifted from the region’s desert expanses to the city streets. - Wall Street Journal WINEP’s Metin Gurcan on civil-military relations in Turkey "Significant" consequences if China takes key port in Djibouti: U.S. general (Reuters) The top U.S. general for Africa told lawmakers on Tuesday that the American military could face “significant” consequences should China take a key port in Djibouti, as Beijing becomes increasingly muscular in Africa in an effort to expand its influence. China tops migrant issue as priority for Merkel: Report BY ASIA TIMES STAFF Beijing’s strategic interests in Europe are German leader’s ‘chief global concern’ US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lieutenant General Robert Ashley has expressed concern over the Chinese military’s growing capabilities, especially those extending further into the Pacific Ocean. - IHS Jane’s
Two Worlds of Strategy
By Michael J. Hennelly, Strategy Bridge: “There are two worlds of strategy and most people are only aware of one.” 2018 World Navies in Review By Eric Wertheim, Proceedings Magazine: “The proliferation of sophisticated naval weapons and technology has reached fever pitch during the past few years. Sales of advanced submarines, long-range antiship weapons, and cutting-edge surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) have provided asymmetric capabilities to all interested parties. Modern navies must now come to grips with these challenges, and they must be prepared to face even the most advanced military threats anywhere and everywhere they operate.” Claudia Ochoa Felix Mexico's Drug Kingpin Enforcer Essential Reading
For China U.S. Steel Tariffs Are Likely Just the Tip of the Iceberg After months spent laying the legal groundwork, the United States has begun making moves against its top strategic competitor, China. One Man's Drive to Reshape Mexico's Cartel Wars A single criminal leader cannot change the geopolitics of Mexico, but a skillful one can influence how much of the border his organization can control and how mutch drug revenue it can rake in. The Long-Running Headache of Minority Rule in Ethiopia Until the Tigrayans -- the ethnic minority that dominates military, economic assets and ruling coalition in Ethiopia -- concede some control, turmoil will continue to threaten the stability of this East African giant.
Has Xi Overreached?
By Andrew Davies & Michael Shoebridge, The Strategist (ASPI): “China’s militarisation of the South China Sea, an increasingly threatening tone towards Taiwan, border incursions in the Himalayas, and the frequent and often aggressive incursions around the Senkaku Islands are the most obvious practical demonstrations of its emboldened foreign and strategic policy. None of those are helpful in positioning China as a non-revisionist power.” China’s Options Towards the (Re)emerging Quadrilateral Security Dialogue By Adam Ni, Divergent Options: “The People’s Republic of China (China) is facing the (re)emergence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as the Quad, consisting of the United States, India, Japan and Australia. The unstated aim of the Quad is to constrain China’s growing power in Asia through possible military and economic cooperation that would raise the cost if Beijing challenges the status quo.”
The world can only benefit as China marches toward “irresistible” national rejuvenation and assumes greater global leadership under President Xi Jinping, China’s top diplomat said Thursday as he sought to dismiss concerns about China’s rise while also underscoring its inevitability. - Washington Post
Why America’s ‘Quad’ is not a priority for India
BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR Likely motivated by realism, the Modi government is moving toward an independent policy vis a vis China
Xi Jinping Steers China back to the Days of Mao Zedong
By Willy Wo-Lap Lam, China Brief: “The success of Xi’s relentless self-aggrandizement became apparent at the 19th Party Congress last October, where Xi’s faction, consisting mostly of his protégés from Fujian and Zhejiang, were elevated to senior positions in the party, government and army.” The 'American Century' Is Over, and It Died in Syria (Bloomberg) For anyone who thought that the winding down of the campaign against the Islamic State would cause the Syrian civil war to recede from the headlines, the last few weeks have been a rude awakening. Far from abating, the Syrian conflict is intensifying, with a brutal assault -- reportedly involving chemical weapons -- by the Syrian government on rebel-held areas near Damascus, sharp aerial clashes between Israeli, Iranian and Syrian forces, and a bloody and one-sided confrontation between American airpower and Russian "mercenaries." Syria: A Long, Long History Of War by Barry Strauss via Military History in the News The war in Syria just seems to go on and on, with civilians in the line of fire as often as not. Currently an estimated 400,000 civilians are trapped in Eastern Ghouta, a Damascus suburb and rebel enclave, currently under bombardment by government forces. Fighting since February 18 has killed over 600 people, including many children. U.S. Mission in Syria Poses Risk Without Rewards By Daniel L. Davis, RealClearDefense: “It is difficult to overstate how chaotic, violent, and intractable the situation in Syria has become. Regional powers such as the Syrian regime, Russia, Iran, and Turkey—along with hundreds of rebel groups—employ armed forces or violent militia in search of competing objectives.” What Putin Wants in Syria Nina Khrushcheva argues that Russia's goal is to send a message that popular revolts against its allies will not succeed. Russia's Favorite Syrian Warlord // Sam Dagher Brigadier General Suheil al-Hassan has won over Putin and played a central role in the assault on eastern Ghouta. Putin’s Answer to Russia’s Many Problems: Missiles and More Missiles
By Pavel K. Baev, Eurasia Daily Monitor: “Putin attacked the theme with passion resembling Nikita Khrushchev’s braggadocio and presented video animations that outshone even the Cold War–era Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI, or “Star Wars”) proposals of the Ronald Reagan administration.” The Flawed Logic of Russia’s New Weapon Systems By Victor Abramowicz, the interpreter: “Putin said the U.S. system might eventually be able to intercept of all Russia’s missiles, resulting “in the complete devaluation of Russia’s nuclear potential” and leaving the country open to attack. ”
Italy heads for hung parliament in big election (Politico) Italy was headed for a hung parliament after Sunday’s election put Silvio Berlusconi‘s center-right coalition first but without a clear majority and made the anti-establishment 5Star Movement the largest single party, according to early results. Italy’s national elections yielded no outright winner, initial projections showed, likely ushering in a protracted period of political instability and tension in the eurozone’s third-largest economy. Populist parties staged a strong showing, winning about half of all votes cast. Europe's months of electoral showdowns between mainstream and populist parties have ended with the establishment weakened in Germany and defeated in Italy – and trouble brewing for both countries. The weekend’s events capped a year of elections in which the EU’s broadly centrist governing establishment faced its strongest-ever challenges from insurgent movements, ranging from far-right nationalists to far-left anticapitalists. Weakened Merkel Has Her Work Cut Out To Make Coalition Last
quoting Josef Joffe via Reuters Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) have bought Chancellor Angela Merkel time with their vote to join her conservatives in another coalition, but she risks losing her long grip on power if she fails to balance the awkward allies’ conflicting demands. India must prepare for a two-front war with Pakistan and China
PRAKASH KATOCH There is considerable commotion about a statement by India's Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Bipin Rawat, that India must be prepared for a two-front war and Western Army Commander Lieutenant-General Surinder Singh saying a two-front war is not such a good idea. An impression is being created that the western army commander has contradicted the army chief. But a closer examination will reveal there is no contradiction, considering the contexts in which these statements were... US tailors forces to deter growing Chinese nuclear threat
BY BILL GERTZ The Pentagon's Nuclear Posture Review outlines a new 'tailored deterrence' policy that seeks to persuade Chinese leaders to avoid miscalculations – provocative action in the South China Sea, or hostile activity related to Taiwan or Japan – that could escalate into war.
Why is Russia Building Nuclear Powered Cruise Missiles?
By Dave Majumdar, The National Interest: “...Among these weapons are the Status-6 nuclear-powered intercontinental range torpedo and a new nuclear-powered nuclear-tipped cruise missile.”
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a19040770/vladimir-putin-gloating-nuclear-weapons-hypersonic/
From the description, Putin is most likely talking about the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. Its NATO codename name is SS-X-30 Satan 2. Reports of Russia’s new missile have been circulating for years, and Putin's engineers are not alone. Russia, the United States, and China have all dedicated time and money to hypersonic missiles. U.S. tests have ended in crashes, revealing a fundamental flaw in the missile’s ability to steer or even remain in control at ultra-high speeds. Nevertheless, these missiles can strike targets anywhere in the world within a few minutes, a promise too tantalizing to ignore. The idea that they can carry nukes or conventional weapons is a worry for those who fear an accidental nuclear exchange. What does this do to the calculus of mutually assured destruction? In one way, not much. Any attack from Russia today would overwhelm the limited number of U.S. interceptors. The idea that Putin can use missiles to destroy America is nothing new |
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