Pyongyang’s rocket science: Even if North Korea’s April 16 missile test was a failure, the public display of rockets at this month’s military parade shows that Pyongyang still possesses some of the most developed missile systems in the world, writes Bertil Lintner. The most advanced of those missiles, known as the Taepodong 2, could conceivably reach the west coast of the United States and North Korea’s expanding missile reach is known to be a driving force behind the US’ rising strategic threats against Pyongyang. READ THE STORY HERE
When a North Korean missile test went awry on Sunday, blowing up seconds after liftoff, there were immediate suspicions that a United States program to sabotage the test flights had struck again. The odds seem highly likely: Eighty-eight percent of the launches of the North’s most threatening missiles have self-destructed since the covert American program was accelerated three years ago. But even inside the United States Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, where the operation is centered, it is nearly impossible to tell if any individual launch is the victim of a new, innovative approach to foil North Korean missiles with cyber and electronic strikes. – New York Times
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal has expanded to 30 warheads and will grow further as Pyongyang produces increased quantities of weapons-grade uranium and plutonium, according to estimates. – Washington Times When China’s best-known historian of the Korean War, Shen Zhihua, recently laid out his views on North Korea, astonishment rippled through the audience. China, he said with a bluntness that is rare here, had fundamentally botched its policy on the divided Korean Peninsula. – New York Times China defended its trade practices on Tuesday after Chinese-made vehicles were seen towing ballistic missiles during a North Korea military parade despite international sanctions against selling military hardware to Pyongyang. – Associated Press U.S. experts who have been forecasting an imminent North Korean nuclear test said on Tuesday they were surprised when they viewed their latest satellite images of the country's nuclear test site and saw volleyball games under way. - Reuters Joshua Stanton, Sung-Yoon Lee, and Bruce Klingner write: Washington must make clear to both Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping that it would prefer the regime’s chaotic collapse to a stable, nuclear-armed North Korea. The missing ingredient in U.S. diplomacy with Pyongyang has been not trust but leverage—and the willingness to use it. Washington must threaten the one thing that Pyongyang values more than its nuclear weapons: its survival. – Foreign Affairs Fred Fleitz writes: I believe the Trump administration understands that the Kim regime’s missile and nuclear programs are becoming too dangerous to allow this pattern of appeasement to continue. Hopefully China also realizes this too, and will begin cooperating with the United States to implement more aggressive steps to pressure Pyongyang to halt these programs and work with Washington on the only real solution to the North Korean problem: regime change. – National Review Online Sources of Resilience in the Lord’s Resistance Army From Pamela Faber, CNA: “The LRA has two major sources of resilience: it positions itself within the nexus of four interconnected conflicts in the region, and it adapts its tactics to changes in its capabilities and environment. The resilience of the LRA has implications both for its potential resurgence and for other armed groups who may look to it as a template for survival.” John Ikenberry writes: Today, the defenders of the order will need to recapture its essence as a security community, a grouping of countries bound together by common values, shared interests, and mutual vulnerabilities. Trump will do a lot of damage to this order, but the decisions of others—in the United States and abroad—will determine whether it is ultimately destroyed. “The best lack all conviction, while the worst / Are full of passionate intensity,” William Butler Yeats wrote in the aftermath of World War I. If the liberal democratic world is to survive, its champions will have to find their voice and act with more conviction. – Foreign Affairs
The Trump administration is attempting a balancing act in its confrontation with North Korea, using bellicose rhetoric and promises of military help to America’s allies to defend against Pyongyang while trying to coax China to apply economic and political pressure on its traditional ally. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Vice President Mike Pence issued a fresh warning to North Korea on Monday not to test America’s resolve. But behind the threatening talk, the White House is taking a more calculated approach, giving the Chinese government time to show whether it is ready to use its influence to curb its erratic, nuclear-armed neighbor. – New York Times China is not alone in struggling to construct a successful policy toward North Korea, as the United States can attest. But the failure of its approach has seldom been more starkly outlined, as Pyongyang presses ahead with its nuclear program, the United States sends an aircraft-carrier strike group to the region and fears of military conflict mount, analysts say. – Washington Post North Korea’s military parade on Saturday, more than rallying its citizens, appeared intended to send a message to the rest of us: The country is seeking a program sophisticated enough to fire a guaranteed nuclear retaliation in any war, including one day against the United States. – New York Times Rep. Adam Kinzinger on Monday said a pre-emptive strike on North Korea is a ‘next-to-worse case’ scenario, with the country’s developing the ability to strike a U.S. ally with a nuclear weapon the worst-case scenario. – Washington Times North Korea's test of a nuclear warhead did not take place last weekend amid mounting diplomatic and military pressure from the United States and possibly China. The stepped-up pressure is part of a policy recently adopted by the White House that seeks ways to force North Korea into giving up its nuclear program and long-range missiles without triggering another Korean war. – Washington Free Beacon Heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula underscore the need for an increased military presence there and worldwide, according to the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. – Defense News North Korea's persistent violations of missile test bans mean there is not "much enthusiasm" for international talks to avoid a clash over their nuclear weapons program, according to the State Department. – Washington Examiner For more than a week, media reports in the U.S. and around Asia routinely have mentioned the approach of the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group, seemingly implying an attack on North Korea could be imminent. But a week after the U.S. announced the carrier and its escorts would leave Singapore, forego port calls in Australia and instead return to Korean waters, the carrier and its group had yet to head north. – Defense News North Korea’s deputy U.N. ambassador accused the United States on Monday of turning the Korean Peninsula into “the world’s biggest hotspot” and creating “a dangerous situation in which a thermonuclear war may break out at any moment.” – Associated Press Josh Rogin reports: The Trump administration is planning to drastically ramp up pressure on North Korea, and it needs cooperation from America’s partners in the region for the strategy to work. But deep uncertainty about the future of South Korea’s government could undermine Donald Trump’s plan to tighten the noose around the Kim Jong Un regime. – Washington Post Editorial: The Trump administration is right both to declare a limit to Western patience and to look for a non-military solution. But the horror of Mr. Kim’s rule also cannot be overstated, from the reported assassination of his own half brother in Malaysia to systematic and grave human rights violations. As long as North Korea remains a giant prison camp, the long-term problem will not have been solved. – Washington Post South Korea For decades, South Koreans have lived in a technical state of war with a hostile brother country that considers them traitors and imperialist lackeys. Throughout verbal attacks and periodic military ones, this nation of 50 million people has brushed off tensions, much as one might ignore a combative uncle at Thanksgiving…But now, there is one new wild card that South Koreans haven’t had to factor in before: President Trump. – Washington Post South Korea pushed Monday for “swift” action to activate the U.S. Army‘s THAAD anti-missile system against the North Korean threat a day after a White House official said it could take months. – Defense Tech The Trump administration is to review and reform the US trade deal with South Korea, Mike Pence said on Tuesday, citing a widening bilateral trade deficit and obstacles for American businesses in the east Asian nation. – Financial Times With no political party to speak of, and never having held elective office, Mr. Macron, 39, a onetime investment banker and former economy minister, is leading an improbable quest to become modern France’s youngest president. His profile is that of an insider, but his policies are those of an outsider. If the ever-precocious Mr. Macron is to succeed, his first challenge is to sell a product still largely unfamiliar to almost everyone: himself. – New York Times
North Korea
North Korea launched a ballistic missile Sunday morning from near its submarine base in Sinpo on its east coast, but the launch was the latest in a series of failures just after liftoff, according to American and South Korean military officials. – New York Times In the wake of North Korea’s failed missile test over the weekend, Trump administration officials stepped up pressure on China, saying the threat has reached an inflection point that demands new urgency. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Vice President Pence warned North Korea Monday that it could be in for the same treatment as Syria and Afghanistan — both of which the Trump administration has bombed this month — if it continues with its nuclear program. – Washington Post North Korea showed off what appeared to be at least one new long-range missile at a military parade Saturday, as tensions simmer over the possibility of a military confrontation between the U.S. and North Korea. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Even as Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping pledge to stop North Korea’s fast-advancing nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, there’s one uncomfortable secret that neither leader has publicly acknowledged: Chinese banks and businesses are playing key roles in providing Pyongyang with access to the global markets they need to acquire critical parts and technologies. - Politico North Korea snubbed senior Chinese diplomats this month as tensions mounted with the U.S., according to people familiar with the situation, raising questions about the influence Beijing’s leaders have over Kim Jong Un. - Bloomberg National security adviser H.R. McMaster said a failed early-morning missile test by North Korea "fits into a pattern of provocative and destabilizing and threatening behavior on the part of the North Korean regime." - Politico How President Trump responds to North Korea’s push to develop a nuclear missile capable of striking the United States could be the “first real test” of his administration, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said Sunday. – The Hill North Korea is sending a “message to China,” as well as the U.S. and Japan, with its latest round of failed missile launches, the top House Republican on military issues said Sunday. – The Hill Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly said he's more concerned about North Korea launching a cyber attack on the U.S. than any direct military action. – The Hill Analysis: What is playing out, said Robert Litwak of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, who tracks this potentially deadly interplay, is “the Cuban missile crisis in slow motion.” But the slow-motion part appears to be speeding up, as President Trump and his aides have made it clear that the United States will no longer tolerate the incremental advances that have moved Mr. Kim so close to his goals. – New York Times Josh Rogin reports: Despite heated rhetoric about potential military conflict, the Trump administration’s official policy on North Korea is not aimed at regime change, but rather seeks to impose “maximum pressure” on Pyongyang in the hopes of returning to negotiations to get rid of its growing nuclear arsenal. That’s the result of a comprehensive policy review the Trump White House completed this month. – Washington Post Editorial: Mr. Trump’s art of the deal includes keeping adversaries guessing, but eventually China may choose to test how far he is willing to go to stop a Korean nuclear missile. Mr. Trump needs to make clear what he will do if China won’t make a Korean deal. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) William Perry writes: We might have to use military force against North Korea at some point, but now is not the time. We still have a real opportunity for successful diplomacy. The big question is: Do we have the sense to seize this chance? After all, it could be the last one we have. - Politico East Asia South Korea’s recently impeached and ousted president, Park Geun-hye, was formally indicted on Monday on charges of collecting or demanding $52 million in bribes, becoming the first leader put on criminal trial since the mid-1990s, when two former military-backed presidents were imprisoned for corruption and mutiny. – New York Times China and Russia have launched intelligence-gathering vessels to follow the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier as it travels toward the Korean Peninsula, multiple Japenese government sources told The Yomiuri Shimbun, as reported by the Associated Press. – The Hill Josh Rogin reports: Pence’s four-nation tour of Asia, which will take him also to Japan, Indonesia and Australia, could be called a reassurance tour, meant to both remind America’s Pacific allies where we’ve come from and let them know that the United States under Trump has a clear sense and firm commitment to where we are going. There’s no doubt that reassurance is both badly needed and welcomed, given the confusion foreign partners have about the Trump administration. – Washington Post Chris Miller and Joshua Walker write: On some issues of Asia-Pacific security, the United States and Russia might even find that they agree. Yet Washington too often only sees Russia through a European lens. Japan’s effort to rebuild its relations with Moscow just might help us see Russia and Asia in a new light. – War on the Rocks John Vinocur writes: A head-to-head Mélenchon-Le Pen presidential clash is now plausible. It means a presidential victory by a French extremist, left or right. Virtually in common, even though they detest one another, each has devastating plans for the West: spending the groggy French economy into a deeper coma, partnership with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and exits from NATO, the European Union and the euro. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Jeremy Black writes: A defeat for Ms. Le Pen appears likely. That would be welcome, but it should not detract from the broader failures of a corporatist social-welfare model that has already done great harm to France and the EU. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) One man gives shivers to banks, businesspeople and the bourgeoisie. One man has been rising rapidly in polls, threatening the front-runners a week before the first round in France’s presidential election. One man has suddenly turned the French contest, locked for months between two favorites, into a four-man race. That one man is Jean-Luc Mélenchon, admirer of Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez, sworn enemy of NATO and high finance, and candidate of his own “France Unsubjugated” movement – New York Times Editorial: Two years ago, having repeated his loathsome views, he was expelled from the National Front and repudiated by his daughter, then eyeing a presidential bid. But the party, which leads in next weekend’s first-round presidential races, according to some opinion polls, hasn’t really been remade, just recast. Ms. Le Pen has made that clear. – Washington Post [W]ith just two weeks to go before the first round of the election, the question is whether Macron, long considered the favorite in the race, and his romantic, often lofty proposals can persuade a largely undecided and disillusioned electorate to join his march. In an age of political extremes — in which those voters certain to participate have increasingly said they will support the far right or far left — Macron’s careful center is not sure to hold. – Washington Post
Little more than a week before France’s presidential election, Marine Le Pen remains a front-runner after working hard to sanitize the image of her party, the National Front, and to distance it from the uglier associations of Europe’s far right. But descriptions of the inner workings of her party by present and former close Le Pen associates, as well as court documents, raise fresh doubts about the success and sincerity of those efforts. – New York Times
Air Force's Epic Elephant Walk Sends a Message to North Korea
From David Cenciotti, The Aviationist: “With a U.S. Navy Carrier Strike Group heading to the Korean Peninsula, and several aircraft (including the WC-135 “nuclear sniffer”) amassing not far from North Korea, it seems to be quite likely that the Elephant Walk at Kadena Air Base was just a way to showcase U.S. Air Force 18th Wing’s ability to quickly generate combat air power in the event of an attack on Kadena, the largest U.S. military installation in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region, and flex the muscles against Kim Jong Un and his nuclear plans.”
Countering North Korea’s Weapons Program
From LtGen Dan Leaf (USAF, Ret.), Defense News: “It is difficult to turn on the news or surf the web without seeing what a mess the world faces in North Korea. In a troubled world, it may be the most dangerous mess out there. North Korea has a history of provocations, an unpredictable and supposedly crazy young leader, and nuclear weapons. The next Korean War, if there is one, could dwarf Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan in the magnitude of tragedy and disastrous global impact. North Korean missile and nuclear tests, coupled with strong rhetoric from both North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump, have the region and the world on watch.” North Korea in for Some Trump-style Shock and Awe From John Hemmings, Lowy Institute Interpreter: “All eyes are on Beijing, and the coming weeks will be critical to the course of the Korean confrontation. This month, North Korea marks several major anniversaries, the most important of which, the 'Day of the Sun' on 15 April, is the birthday of the state’s founder Kim Il-Sung. Significant anniversaries are usually celebrated with demonstrations of military might and weapons tests. As the carrier group moves closer to North Korea, one wonders how this day will be commemorated in the last Stalinist state.” The Korean Peninsula: A Cast of Very Jaded Players From Ron Huisken, The Strategist (ASPI): “South Korea, Japan and the United States expressed outrage at North Korea’s simultaneous launch of four extended-range SCUD ballistic missiles in early March 2017. The missiles—the most primitive in the DPRK arsenal—splashed down about 1,000 kilometers from the launch site in the Sea of Japan, inside Japan’s EEZ. That spectacular simultaneous launch, which coincided with the start of the annual US–ROK military exercise ‘Foal Eagle’, followed a spate of other launches in the recent past of different missile systems, including the Soviet-era Musudan intermediate-range ballistic missile which has a range of 3–4,000 kilometers but is still under development (that is, not operationally deployed).”
North Korea appears prepared to stage its sixth nuclear weapons test as soon as this weekend, current and former U.S. officials said, placing immediate pressure on President Donald Trump and his efforts to improve bilateral relations with China. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Amid sharply rising tensions over North Korea’s nuclear arms program, China said on Thursday that its trade with the country had expanded, even though it had complied with United Nations sanctions and stopped buying North Korean coal, a major source of hard currency for Pyongyang. – New York Times North Korea hit out at President Trump on Friday, accusing him of “making trouble” with his “aggressive” tweets, amid concerns that tensions between the two countries could escalate into military action. – Washington Post The U.S. is prepared to launch a preemptive strike with conventional weapons against North Korea should officials become convinced that North Korea is about to follow through with a nuclear weapons test, multiple senior U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News. – NBC News Prime Minister Shinzo Abe warned Thursday that North Korea may be capable of firing a missile loaded with sarin nerve gas toward Japan, as international concern mounted that a missile or nuclear test by the authoritarian state could be imminent. – Associated Press Patrick Cronin writes: It will be vital for U.S. national security officials to remain clear-eyed about the limits of military power. The U.S. national security team should remain attentive to the potential for a pattern break in North Korean behavior. The White House must be tough but smart about North Korea. North Korea is not Syria. – The National Interest James Durso writes: The North’s best model is economic development à la Chine. China wants to lead its “little brother” and, despite the historical friction between the Chinese and the Koreans, it is the best example of how an authoritarian government develops a market economy. Offering an economic opening to the world with Kim and Co. in power will definitely be a glass-half-full situation, but war it ain’t. – The Hill LTG Dan Leaf, USAF (Ret.) writes: There is, however, a viable military option — a defensive option — that has not received the attention it deserves. The U.S. can significantly strengthen the missile defenses protecting Hawaii by deploying an operational missile system. Timely investment in a combination of current capabilities could protect Hawaii from the North Korean (and other) threats quickly and affordably. – Defense News
Now, with less than a month to go before the election and as tensions flare on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Ahn, 55, has suddenly become a leading contender to be the next president, offering hope to conservatives and others alarmed by the North’s nuclear and missile threats. Mr. Ahn’s support in polls has surged this month, turning the campaign into a two-way race between him and Moon Jae-in, the candidate from the largest political party, the left-leaning Democrats, who control 119 parliamentary seats. – New York Times
Japan scrambled a record number of fighter jets in the past year, according to official figures released on Thursday, in a sign of rising tensions with China. – Financial Times U.S. Vice President Mike Pence will travel to South Korea on Sunday in what his aides said was a sign of the U.S. commitment to its ally in the face of rising tensions over North Korea's nuclear program. - Reuters Dalibor Rohac writes: Hungary’s European partners are cautious in using the substantial leverage they have over Budapest. In per capita terms, Hungary is the third-largest recipient of EU funds…Unless they turn their outrage into action by threatening to turn off the spigot of EU funds and to expel Fidesz from the family of Europe’s center-right parties, both the EPP and the EU at large risk becoming complicit in Hungary’s descent into a Putin-style authoritarian kleptocracy. – Foreign Affairs
U.S., CHINA, NORTH KOREA: China Warns Against U.S. Force As North Korea Prepares Nuke Test From Michael Martina and Sue-Lin Wong: “Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from April 12 shows continued activity around the North Portal, new activity in the Main Administrative Area, and a few personnel around the site’s Command Center.” NORTH KOREA: North Korea Primed and Ready for Nuclear Test From Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu, 38 North: “Commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site from April 12 shows continued activity around the North Portal, new activity in the Main Administrative Area, and a few personnel around the site’s Command Center.” NORTH KOREA: Japan: North Korea May Be Capable of Sarin-tipped Missiles From Kiyoshi Takenaka, Reuters: “North Korea may have the capacity to deliver missiles equipped with sarin nerve gas, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Thursday, amid concerns that the reclusive state could soon conduct its sixth nuclear test or more missile launches.” An Early North Korean Provocation Remembered From Todd Crowell, RealClearDefense: “A North Korean provocation, a U.S. President new to the job and untested, a show of force by a naval armada: a date pregnant with meaning. All point to a half-forgotten but seminal episode of the Cold War more than 40 years go that still resonates.” Assessing North Korea’s Weapons Programs From Will Edwards, The Cipher Brief: “North Korea has concluded preparations for a sixth nuclear test, and it may do so on or around April 15th to coincide with the 105th birthday of founding North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, according to most experts. North Korea’s progress, and the war of words that has followed, has created the highest level of tension on the peninsula in recent memory.” China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and President Trump spoke by phone on Wednesday about the escalating tensions with North Korea as a prominent Chinese state-run newspaper warned the North that it faced a cutoff of vital oil supplies if it dared test a nuclear weapon. – New York Times New satellite images suggest that North Korea might soon conduct another underground detonation in its effort to learn how to make nuclear arms — its sixth explosive test in a decade and perhaps its most powerful yet. – New York Times
Entire sections of booster rocket were snagged by South Korea’s navy and then scrutinized by international weapons experts for clues about the state of North Korea’s missile program. Along with motor parts and wiring, investigators discerned a pattern. Many key components were foreign-made, acquired from businesses based in China. – Washington Post Japan could be at risk from North Korean missiles carrying sarin nerve gas, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, raising the prospect of a similar scenario to the recent attack in Syria that prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to respond with a military strike. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Despite sending a naval force to the Korean peninsula, the Trump administration is focusing its North Korea strategy on tougher economic sanctions, possibly including an oil embargo, banning its airline, intercepting cargo ships and punishing Chinese banks doing business with Pyongyang, U.S. officials say. - Reuters U.S. Military Considers New Superweapon to Counter Russian Nukes From Luke Coffey and Daniel Kochis, The Heritage Foundation: “Although Ukraine is not a NATO member, there are things the U.S. can and should do to help. These include continuing and, when necessary, expanding economic sanctions against Russia; providing advanced weaponry and military training to the Ukrainians; issuing a nonrecognition declaration over Crimea; pressuring Russia to live up to its commitments under the Minsk II cease-fire agreement; and helping Ukraine to uproot entrenched corruption and cronyism within its economy and governing system.”
Reform in Pyongyang? Officially, North Korea is guided by the socialist self-reliance philosophy of founder Kim Il-sung, whose 105th birthday is being marked this weekend, but analysts say economic change is happening. Sebastien Berger writes that the transformations that are starting are similar to the first stages of Beijing’s “reform and opening” under Deng Xiaoping in the early 1980s. READ THE STORY HERE
Kenya’s economy, a rare bright spot on a continent battered by plummeting commodities prices, will expand at a slower rate in 2017 at the back of a drought, the World Bank said Tuesday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Zambia’s opposition leader was detained and accused of treason on Tuesday after police raided his home, his lawyer said, in an escalation of political tensions in Africa’s second-biggest copper producer. – Financial Times Several thousand people gathered in South Africa's capital on Wednesday to protest against President Jacob Zuma following a much-criticized cabinet reshuffle, days after the opposition called countrywide marches to demand his resignation. - Reuters Anthea Jeffery writes: The larger problem is that most blacks in rapidly urbanizing South Africa don’t want land for farming. They want houses and jobs in the towns and cities. The ANC is nevertheless using their supposed hunger for farmland to tear up the constitutional settlement, crafted so carefully during the country’s political transition. The real aim isn’t to provide redress for past injustices. It’s to empower the state by mandating a program of nationalization of land and other property. – Wall Street Journal (Subscription required) Boko Haram, a militant Islamist group based in northeastern Nigeria and surrounding regions, has horrified the international community with its use of children in terrorist attacks. A new report from UNICEF reveals that the number of child suicide bombers has grown alarmingly over the past three years — and continues to rise. – Foreign Policy’s The Cable Nigeria is in talks to release the remaining captive Chibok girls, its president said on Thursday, a day before the third anniversary of the kidnapping of 276 schoolgirls by Islamist insurgents Boko Haram. - Reuters Nigeria's military said on Thursday that it had destroyed 13 illegal refineries in the restive Niger Delta oil hub, in an operation in which two soldiers died in clashes with "sea robbers". - Reuters East Africa
Uganda’s top prosecutor sought this week to crack down even further on dissent, trying to use a colonial-era law, once employed by the British to quash African resistance, to commit a prominent critic of the president to a mental institution. – New York Times The killings and other atrocities going on South Sudan amount to a genocide and African leaders need to "step up" and not just rely on others for a response, Britain's secretary for international development, Priti Patel, said late on Wednesday. - Reuters Somali troops on Wednesday rescued eight Indians who had been taken hostage two days earlier by pirates near the coastal town of Hobyo, officials said. – New York Times More than 25,000 people in famine-threatened Somalia have been struck by cholera or acute watery diarrhoea and the deadly epidemic should double by this summer, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Friday. - Reuters Central/Southern Africa Tens of thousands of people filled the streets of this capital city Wednesday morning, demanding that President Jacob Zuma step down or be forced from office after a string of political scandals that have rocked his administration. – Washington Post Zimbabwe is hoping to enlist cows, goats and sheep in an attempt to revive its credit-starved economy after President Robert Mugabe’s ruling party proposed a law to make livestock eligible for backing bank loans. – Financial Times Violence against civilians in Central African Republic (CAR), including summary executions and mutilations, is reaching levels not seen since the height of its years-long conflict, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has said. - Reuters
Venezuela’s opposition is putting up its most determined challenge to President Nicolás Maduro in years, with near-daily protests that are backed by widening international condemnation of the government’s authoritarian rule. – Washington Post
Venezuelan authorities on Tuesday were investigating the death of a university student killed by gunfire at a protest against President Nicolas Maduro, as opposition leaders mapped out their next steps to push for new elections and government officials held a gathering to drum up state support. – Associated Press U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said Tuesday that U.N. peacekeeping has made “a great contribution” to Haiti and the Security Council’s expected vote to withdraw all troops from the Caribbean nation by mid-October is an example of how peacekeeping missions should change as a country’s political situation changes. – Associated Press Roger Noriega writes: As desperate Venezuelans lose their fear and take their battle to the streets against a brutal regime, it is clear that US policymakers miscalculated tragically by favoring stability over democracy in the past 18 months. That policy must be overhauled now so the United States can help avert a bloody disaster. – The Hill Tense comments and warnings from Russia set the tone Wednesday for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson as he attempts to persuade Moscow to abandon its support for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. – Washington Post
When Secretary of State Rex Tillerson meets with Vladimir Putin’s top diplomat in Moscow on Wednesday, he’d better come prepared. Tillerson’s counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, is a wily veteran of world diplomacy who has dueled — and routinely infuriated — no less than four of Tillerson’s predecessors as secretary of state. - Politico RFE/RL's Russian Service spoke to three gay Chechen men who gave their personal accounts of their escapes from the abuse they faced in the southern Russian republic, where homosexuality is stigmatized and so-called honor killings carried out by family members are not uncommon. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty An anticorruption protest in the Siberian city of Irkutsk on March 26 passed peacefully…The drama came later, in the early morning hours of April 6. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty More than 17 years after Mr Putin became president, the authoritarian system he built is showing signs of internal corrosion. Mr Navalny’s ambitions are not expected to undo Mr Putin’s re-election bid. But the uncertainty over what comes next is stirring ambitions and sparking jostling among power brokers in the Kremlin and across Russia. – Financial Times Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny vowed on Tuesday to continue his fight against President Vladimir Putin after spending 15 days in jail for organising the largest anti-Kremlin protests in years. – Financial Times President Donald Trump's frequent questioning about the integrity of his spy agencies is coming back to haunt him. As his administration used U.S. intelligence to pressure Moscow over its support for Syrian President Bashar Assad, Russian President Vladimir Putin parroted back Trump's doubts about the reliability of U.S. spy agencies. – Associated Press Analysis: Even in a presidency marked by unpredictability, the head-spinning shift from coziness to confrontation has left Washington and other capitals with a case of geopolitical whiplash. The prospects of improving Russian-American relations were already slim given the atmosphere of suspicion stemming from Kremlin meddling in last year’s election, but the détente once envisioned by Mr. Trump has instead deteriorated into the latest cold war. – New York Times Editorial: The investigations into ties between Russia and the Trump presidential campaign have a long way to go, but Mr. Trump isn’t acting like someone who is making foreign-policy judgments out of fear of Russia’s response. This is reassuring and will strengthen his leverage with the Russian strongman. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Leon Aron writes: So instead of wasting time on Foreign Minister Lavrov’s denials and counter-accusations, Tillerson should convey a message of credibility and seriousness: The US will bomb Assad again if he uses chemical weapons. If Russia escalates, so will the US. – AEI Ideas Michael Carpenter writes: All eyes are on Moscow this week as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson prepares to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday, following Friday’s U.S. airstrikes in Syria. After President Donald Trump’s sudden change of heart on the utility of striking Syrian military installations to punish and/or deter the use of chemical weapons (something he vigorously opposed during the Barack Obama presidency), the Russian side will try to use the meeting to better understand U.S. intentions in Syria and other key global hotspots. – Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government A senior Abu Sayyaf commander was among several people killed in a firefight with Philippine government forces on a popular tourist island, as the battle extended into a second day. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
A blasphemy case brought against Jakarta’s Christian governor for allegedly insulting Islam was put on hold Tuesday amid tensions surrounding a runoff election next week in which he is facing a candidate backed by hard-line Islamic groups. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Singapore has deployed its Boeing F-15s to Guam for training with the United States Air Force for the first time, according to the Southeast Asian island state’s defense ministry. – Defense News Growing numbers of African migrants passing through Libya are traded in what they call slave markets before being held for ransom, forced labor or sexual exploitation, the U.N. migration agency said on Tuesday. - Reuters
President Donald Trump has signed off on a policy approach to North Korea that involves increased economic and political pressure while military options remain under consideration longer term, a senior U.S. official said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
President Trump, frustrated by China’s inaction on North Korea, opened the door on Tuesday to concessions on his trade agenda with Beijing Beijing in exchange for greater Chinese support in pressuring Pyongyang. In doing so, he lashed together two sharply different issues in an already-complex relationship. – New York Times China’s leader, Xi Jinping, and President Trump spoke by phone on Wednesday about the escalating tensions with North Korea as a prominent Chinese state-run newspaper warned the North that it faced a cutoff of vital oil supplies if it dared test a nuclear weapon. – New York Times The United States and North Korea are engaging in high-tension brinkmanship, with North Korea warning Tuesday that it will “hit the U.S. first” with nuclear weapons, but the prospects that this could escalate into an actual clash of arms are slim. – Washington Post Reacting to worries and conjecture spreading in South Korea of a possible pre-emptive American military strike on nuclear-armed North Korea, the government sought to reassure citizens on Tuesday that there would be no such attack without its consent. – New York Times There was no specific reason U.S. Pacific Command elected to rearrange the schedule of the Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group and send it toward the Korean peninsula, Secretary of Defense James Mattis told reporters on Tuesday. – USNI News A U.S. aircraft that specializes in detecting radioactive debris after the detonation of a nuclear device has arrived on Okinawa amid rising tensions on the Korean peninsula. – Stars and Stripes
Peter Huessy writes: We know previous serious economic and banking sanctions worked to get the North to the negotiating table in 2007, but then the sanctions were inexplicably dropped. It is time to ramp them back up, albeit with the understanding the North’s banking capability is more diverse. – Real Clear Defense
Editorial: The U.S. sale of submarine technology would carry symbolic weight precisely because Beijing has worked so hard to deny Taiwan this capability. Politically, the prospect of the U.S. ramping up support for Taiwan’s defense would force China to reconsider its strategy of intimidating the island’s population into submission. That would help stabilize the region and reduce the risk of the U.S. having to come to Taiwan’s aid in a conflict. While Beijing would undoubtedly find ways to retaliate, the strategic benefits would outweigh the costs. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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