Japanese air security: Russian and Chinese military aircraft are probing Japanese air defenses at a rate not seen in over a decade, causing repeated scrambling of Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force jets, Peter J Brown writes. The activity may put pressure on Tokyo to boost military spending amid talk of Beijing and Moscow playing a role to defuse the confrontation with North Korea. Japan recorded more than 850 such events in the year ended March 2017 that required the scrambling of its F-15J fighter aircraft. If China and Russia continue to flex military muscle in the skies above Japan, Tokyo may be pushed down a path to further militarization. READ THE STORY HERE
Denuclearizing North Korea is empty talk. @gordongchang @michaelauslin @hooverinst
Yet despite such tensions, Beijing has failed to put real pressure on Kim, at least until very recently. But China’s call for more negotiations is best seen as a tactic to preserve the status quo, whereby endless negotiations absorb all of Washington’s energy while doing nothing to actually resolve the crisis. Kim and his father before him used all previous negotiations as a respite to push forward on the nuclear and missile programs, and there is no reason to think a new round of negotiations will have any different result. For years, observers in Asia and the United States have claimed that China “holds the keys” to solving the North Korean crisis. If so, Beijing has once again shown its disinterest in doing so. More likely, it has less influence than the world thinks, and has as few ideas for dealing with Kim as do the Americans. Nonetheless, China could help in controlling North Korea if it decided to work with an equally realistic United States to contain and deter Pyongyang. There is little reason to believe it will do so. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-china-can-really-help-north-korea-22163?page=show
Putin moves to take charge of the unfinished Korean War. Gregory Copley, Defense & Foreign Affairs
On Saturday, North Koreans will celebrate the anniversary of their country's founding, and experts think the country may mark the holiday with a full-range test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. South Korean media earlier this week reported that a North Korean ICBM appeared to be on the move, and CNN cited the South Korean prime minister on Thursday as saying that "some believe" a launch Saturday was possible. Also this week, North Korea said the US could expect more "gift packages" in the form of further missile testing. With only two successful tests on record, North Korea's latest ICBM is in need of further trials. But firing a ballistic missile thousands of miles across the globe could have disastrous consequences if not executed properly. North Korea fired a missile over Japan in late August, and geography dictates that Pyongyang will most likely have to do so again to complete a full-range ICBM test. An unannounced missile heading toward the US mainland from North Korea could cause a nuclear retaliation, so Pyongyang would most likely try to aim the missile elsewhere. Possible trajectories may send the missile south toward the pole or into the Pacific south of the US. Even unarmed, the missile's reentry vehicle would pose a huge threat to maritime life and traffic as it blazes through the atmosphere at many times the speed of sound. But there's no guarantee the launch would be unarmed. In 1966, as the US and the outside world doubted China could build a functional nuclear-armed ICBM without outside help, Beijing launched a missile at full range with a nuclear payload. http://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-expected-icbm-launch-full-range-september-9-2017-9
The irreparable tragedy of Korea. Michael Vlahos, JHUWorldCrisis
The Battle of Pusan Perimeter was a large-scale battle between United Nations and North Korean forces lasting from August 4 to September 18, 1950. It was one of the first major engagements of the Korean War. An army of 140,000 UN troops, having been pushed to the brink of defeat, were rallied to make a final stand against the invading North Korean army, 98,000 men strong. UN forces, having been repeatedly defeated by the advancing North Koreans, were forced back to the "Pusan Perimeter", a 140-mile (230 km) defensive line around an area on the southeastern tip of the Korean Peninsula that included the port of Pusan. The UN troops, consisting mostly of forces from the Republic of Korea (ROK), United States and British Commonwealth, mounted a last stand around the perimeter, fighting off repeated North Korean attacks for six weeks as they were engaged around the cities of Taegu, Masan, and P'ohang, and the Naktong River. The massive North Korean assaults were unsuccessful in forcing the United Nations troops back further from the perimeter, despite two major pushes in August and September. North Korean troops, hampered by supply shortages and massive losses, continually staged attacks on UN forces in an attempt to penetrate the perimeter and collapse the line. However, the UN used the port to amass an overwhelming advantage in troops, equipment, and logistics, and its navy and air forces remained unchallenged by the North Koreans during the fight. After six weeks, the North Korean force collapsed and retreated in defeat after the UN force launched a counterattack at Inchon on September 15. The battle would be the furthest the North Korean troops would advance in the war, as subsequent fighting ground the war into a stalemate. The Long Arm of Chinese Intelligence
By Scott Stewart, Stratfor: “The Chinese government has a sophisticated human intelligence program that is quite capable of recruiting company employees using cash, sex or other approaches. This capability is useful against not only government targets, but also commercial targets that have information or technology the Chinese government deems critical to the country's military and economic goals.” A Contested Asia: What Comes After U.S. Strategic Predominance? By Peter Varghese, The Strategist (ASPI): “The central role of the US is under pressure and we cannot assume that the patterns of the past in Asia will continue. China’s nightmare neighbor: Judging by its recent provocative missile tests, North Korea will be a major obstacle on China’s path to regional supremacy, Xuan Loc Doan writes. As a rising power, China’s ultimate ambition is to replace the US as the dominant player in Asia. But China can only overtake the US if the world’s biggest economy and military withdraws from this strategically and economically important region, something that looks increasingly unlikely as Pyongyang’s provocations force Washington to intensify its presence. READ THE STORY HERE Japanese defense policy: Uncertainty over America’s commitment to Pacific security could lead Tokyo to conclude that “going nuclear” might be its best recourse, Richard A Bitzinger writes. Japan has the technological capacity to build an atomic bomb in a relatively short time – months, perhaps, a few years at the most. But becoming a nuclear-weapons state is a lot harder than it or most others think. It is not simply a matter of building an atomic bomb. Yes, if Japan were to build a nuclear bomb and test it, it would have resonance throughout Asia, and, indeed, the rest of the world. But it would require much, much more for Tokyo to create a credible nuclear deterrent. Massive fiscal, infrastructural and technological challenges aside, it would likely face massive public opposition. READ THE STORY HERE Unlocking Myanmar’s potential:
To create a more sophisticated financial system that facilitates economic development, institutional reform is required, Teun van Vlerken writes. First, regulatory capacity should be improved; the country’s antiquated institutions tasked with prudential oversight are not up to the job of regulating a rapidly expanding financial sector. Second, generally accepted accounting standards must become the norm across the board. Third, Myanmar needs a credit bureau. With many entrepreneurs still borrowing in their personal capacity, a nationwide database detailing the credit history of individuals would support banks and micro-finance institutions alike in their credit decision process. READ THE STORY HERE Philippines counterinsurgency campaign:
Military officials claim the battle for the Islamic State-besieged city of Marawi is nearly over, but the contest for the hearts and minds of those affected by the fighting has only just begun, Bong S Sarmiento writes. “I’m confident the end is already near,” said Lieutenant General Carlito Galvez Jr, commander of the Western Mindanao Command, predicting that troops would “normalize” the situation in the besieged city by October. However, restoring normalcy will be no easy task. The fighting continues to displace some 360,000 civilians, mostly ethnic Maranao Muslims, and has laid waste to what was the Philippines’ most religiously significant Muslim majority city on the southern island of Mindanao. READ THE STORY HERE Path Not Preordained: A Profile of China’s Xi Jinping | Kenneth Dekleva, Former Regional Medical Officer/Psychiatrist, U.S. Embassy in Moscow While Xi is no stranger to U.S. policymakers, he remains – even after five years in power – an opaque and seemingly-inscrutable leader. In part due to such misunderstanding, tensions between China and the U.S. have escalated. Here's What the US Could Sell South Korea and Japan to Counter North Korea // Marcus Weisgerber and Patrick Tucker Trump doubles the allowable size of Seoul's warheads and promises to transfer more sophisticated weapons to Asian allies. The logic of N. Korea's nuke-tests; How Tokyo, Seoul might arm up; Why NATO can't move forces like Russia; and just a bit more... // Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston New diplomatic approach:
Having 12 times the population of North Korea, and military and economic power of a much greater magnitude of multiples, mighty America can afford the magnanimity of making the first gesture of accommodation to resolve the Korean Peninsula crisis, George Koo asserts. But even then, the US diplomatic effort would need infinite patience to gradually overcome the years of bad blood and distrust between Washington and Pyongyang. Perhaps another high-profile emissary to Pyongyang is needed to break the ice. Instead of former president Jimmy Carter, might not Bill Clinton fill the bill? It’s time to think and act differently about North Korea before the situation gets out of control. READ THE STORY HERE Anger over killing: The assassination of veteran Kannada journalist and political activist Gauri Lankesh by three gunmen at her Bangalore residence on Tuesday night sparked off a wave of protests across India on Wednesday, Anusha Venkat and E Jaya Kumar write. The 55-year-old editor of the weekly tabloid magazine Gauri Lankesh Patrike was a fierce critic of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and right-wing Hindu nationalist groups. Conspiracy theories abound but police, who are examining CCTV footage and mobile phone activity in the area around Lankesh’s home, remain muted about possible suspects. READ THE STORY HERE
DECODING THE PUTIN REGIME: As the Russia election interference saga consumes Washington elites and the media, Leon Aron poses an important question in a Wall Street Journal op-ed: Why is Vladimir Putin engaging in such activity, and what should Americans expect next? Aron concludes that what seems to explain the Russian president’s policies most consistently is his emerging identity as an ardent Soviet patriot who must avenge the Soviet Union’s fall and lead Russia to reclaim its glory as a geopolitical, military, and moral counterbalance to the US. What this worldview may drive Putin to do next in Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltics is extremely troubling. Find out what that might be here.
Russia professes that its upcoming Zapad military exercise with Belarus is merely a routine exercise. Yet, Russia used similar exercises to serve as cover for its operations in Georgia in 2008 and in Crimea in 2014. While these are not NATO countries, the US and its Western allies cannot stand by while Russia violates the sanctity of national borders or undermines the European system and the peace that has, for the most part, reigned since the end of World War II. Revisit Gary J. Schmitt’s US News & World Report op-ed from this past May, in which he outlines the reasons NATO members need to invest more in their own defense here. The Pentagon has confirmed it will send the Army’s Dagger Brigade — the Second Armored Brigade of the First Infantry Division — to Europe this September in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve, the American military’s response to Russian meddling in Ukraine. Having met with the commander of the brigade, Thomas Donnelly and James E. Cunningham provide a firsthand account in a Wall Street Journal op-ed of the consequences of the US military’s readiness crisis on the US servicemen about to deploy to Europe. Find it here. Catch up on more of Donnelly and Cunningham’s work on the US military’s readiness crisis by reading their latest full-length report on the subject here. Building an H-Bomb in Plain Sight // Alex Wellerstein Usually countries build nuclear weapons in secret—but not North Korea. The Clear Logic of the Latest North Korean Test // Joshua Pollack Kim Jong Un has a predictable purpose and a plan. North Korea detonates its biggest nuke yet; Army rapid-reaction brigade says it's unready; ISIS fight gets new US commander; Spy satellites set to shrink; and just a bit more... // Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston Tillerson and Trump: On Morality Versus Realism By Joseph Bosco, RealClearDefense: “The secretary and the president must soon come to grips with the reality that decades of U.S. policy have advanced neither our moral aspirations for the North Korean people nor the security of South Korea, Japan, and the United States.” U.S., NORTH KOREA: U.S. Military Arsenal Poised to WIPE OUT Kim’s threat
By Will Kirby, Express: “After North Korea's UN envoy said the country would never bow down to international pressure and give up its nuclear weapons program, diplomatic means of addressing the hostilities appear to have been sidelined in favor of military action.” U.S., SOUTH KOREA: South Korea to Temporarily Deploy Four Remaining THAAD Launchers From Reuters: “South Korea said on Monday it will temporarily deploy four remaining launchers for a U.S. THAAD missile defense system after the completion of an environmental assessment by the government.” U.S., SOUTH KOREA: South Korea’s Defense Minister: Bring Back U.S. Tactical Nukes By Anna Fifield, The Washington Post: “South Korea’s defense minister on Monday said it was worth reviewing the redeployment of American tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula to guard against the North, a step that analysts warn would sharply increase the risk of an accidental conflict.”
2 months ago: North Korea and Iran are two parts of an unsolved crisis. @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein _ARuggiero @fdd
• http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/anthony-ruggiero-trump-and-moon-must-unite-to-send-a-tough-message-to-north-korea/ • http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/anthony-ruggiero-trump-acts-against-chinese-bank-for-north-korean-money-laundering/ • https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/05/world/asia/north-korea-south-us-nuclear-war.html
China Builds a Wall to Prepare for North Korea’s Collapse. @gordongchang @thadmccotter.
Although the Sino-Korean border is more tense than it has been in years—Pyongyang, in 2014 deployed heavy armor near China—Chinese generals do not look especially worried about a full-scale invasion from their neighbor. Instead, they have other concerns. “The Chinese leadership seems to be preparing for the collapse of the North Korean regime,” a source noted. That assessment of China’s intentions appears correct. At the same time it is building the base, Beijing in Jilin’s Yanbian prefecture is reinforcing its wall, which is mostly a fence, built to keep North Koreans out of China.“Fencing that was washed away due to the flooding of the TumenRiver and old rusted barbed wire have all been replaced with new barbed wire,” a source said. China, in general, has been continually extending and reinforcing its barrier, which it began constructing in 2006. For most of its 880-mile length, the Sino-Korean border is defined by two rivers, the Yalu and the Tumen. They do not pose much of an obstacle to informal travel between the two states, however. In winter one can walk across the ice from one bank to the other and in the summer wade. At one point—at Yibukua, which means “one step across”—the water border is so narrow people can cross without wetting their feet. The border is impossible to seal without extraordinary effort because, among other reasons, it is arbitrary, drawn after conquest, and has a single ethnic group living on both sides. http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2016/11/13/chinas-building-a-wall-any-lessons-for-trump/#4573572448b5 _________ Trump & What Trade Tariffs Mean for China, South Korea and Japan HONG KONG—President-elect Donald Trump ’s promised trade tariffs on China would likely hurt U.S. allies Japan and South Korea, which have become increasingly dependent on the Chinese market. Mr. Trump vowed to slap a 45% tariff on all imports from China if it doesn’t alter practices such as subsidizing steel and other industries, and to pull the plug on a Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, a 12-nation free-trade accord encompassing America’s chief Asian allies. The accord effectively died Friday, and Obama administration officials acknowledged there is now no way to advance it. During a 15-year growth spurt, China became a top export destination for a range of nations, surpassing the U.S. as the biggest market for manufacturers like South Korea and commodity producers such as Brazil. If China slows because it is hit by tariffs, it will buy less from these nations and they will slow, too. http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-china-trade-stance-could-harm-japan-korea-1479076681?mod=e2twp
The U.S. Has Not Lost the South China Sea
By Tuan N. Pham, The Diplomat: “After a year of successfully diminishing the legal and diplomatic impact of the unfavorable ruling, China has resumed a pattern of brazen intimidation against its fellow SCS claimants.” Space, Cyber and Changing Notions of War By Jerry Drew, Small Wars Journal: “The global military presence that space and cyberspace enables and the breakneck pace of innovation contribute to an amount of uncertainty among actors that is atypical of the traditional domains. Land and sea warfare have established bodies of law in the Geneva and Hague Conventions and in the San Remo Protocol, respectively.” North Korea and U.S. Leadership By Christopher R. Hill, The Strategist (ASPI): “The Trump administration has assembled before it all the components of an effective North Korea strategy: cooperation with China; pressure on North Korea through sanctions and isolation; reassurance of allies, including by providing the most up-to-date anti-ballistic missile defences; and a willingness to talk.” Reflections on North Korea and Deterrence in the Twenty-first Century By Nathaniel Davis, Modern War Institute: “There is certainly no prospect of mutually assured destruction between superpowers and rogue regimes; the assurance of destruction is one-directional.” Things Nuclear III: US Control of Nuclear Weapons, Force Modernization, BMD Capabilities and the Japanese Role
Yesterday, I reviewed some recent academic writings on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Of course, the policy stance of the US and its allies is equally if not more important. There has been some disturbing speculation about command and control of the US nuclear force in recent weeks. Algerian policemen killed in suicide attack A suicide attack on Thursday targeting a police station in western Algeria killed two policemen, one of whom threw himself on the attacker as he detonated his explosive belt. The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack in the Tiaret region, about 190 miles west of the capital, Algiers. Militants loyal to IS have been carrying out sporadic attacks in Algeria. The latest such attack took place in February, when a police officer foiled a suicide attack on a police station in the city of Constantine. Libyan Unity Remains Out of Reach | Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief
More than six years after the Arab Spring reverberated across the Middle East and North Africa, the Libyan people still face a seemingly insurmountable challenge of piecing their fractured country back together. Outsider Bets on Libya Torpedo Peace | Jonathan M. Winer, Former U.S. Special Envoy for Libya "When outsiders compete to support their preferred players in Libya, they make it harder for Libyans to come together with one another and deal." Haftar Holds Upper Hand in Libya Power Struggle | Geoff Porter, President, North Africa Risk ConsultingAs for Haftar, he is always looking for opportunities to burnish his credentials internationally. Being feted in Paris by the French president goes a long way toward recasting him as a statesman rather than an aspiring strongman. |
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