The attack came on the same day a 22 year old former Turkish police officer fired point-blank into the back of Andrey G. Karlov, Russia’s ambassador to Turkey at an art gallery in the Turkish capital. While the ambassador lay mortally wounded on the ground, the gunman shouted “God is great!” and “don’t forget Aleppo, don’t forget Syria!” raising questions over possible ties to terrorist groups fighting in Syria. There were initial worries that the assassination would lead to a break between Russia and Turkey, but Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke by phone and reportedly agreed to cooperate in investigating the killing, and in combating terrorism broadly. The shooting was aimed at “disrupting the peace process in Syria that is being actively advanced by Russia, Turkey and Iran,” Putin saidlate Monday. “There can be only one answer to this - stepping up the fight against terrorism, and the bandits will feel this.” Russian warplanes have operated with the regime in Syria to pound civilian targets -- especially in Aleppo -- since September 2015. Airwars, a group that monitors reports of civilian casualties in Iraq and Syria, estimates that Russian airstrikes in and around Aleppo killed over 1,000 civilians in November alone. Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, Andrey G. Karlov, was killed by a gunman on Monday in Ankara, the capital. Turkish officials said the killer had been a police officer who, after shooting, shouted: “Don’t forget Aleppo! Don’t forget Syria!” Russia’s Foreign Ministry called the assassination a terrorist attack. Here’s what we know about Mr. Karlov. – New York Times Turkey and Russia, whose up-and-down relationship has helped shape the Syrian war and the many related crises, shared a new trauma on Monday after a Turkish gunman assassinated Russia’s ambassador at an art gallery in the Turkish capital, Ankara. – New York Times A team of Russian detectives arrived in Turkey early Tuesday to assist with the investigation into the killing of Russia’s ambassador by a Turkish police officer, an act leaders in both countries said was an effort to rupture a rapprochement between the two regional powers as they try to reach an accommodation over Syria’s civil war. – Washington Post Michael Rubin writes: Turkey has a terror problem. The Islamic State, Kurdish extremists and radical leftists each pursue targets inside Turkey seemingly with impunity. – Washington Examiner Merve Tahiroglu writes: Both Ankara and Moscow will likely downplay Monday’s attack to maintain the ties they only re-established in June. But it is clear now that the Turkish and Russian people have not forgotten the rhetoric of their governments from the period when ties were strained. As Monday’s assassination underscores, that mutual animosity will be harder to sweep under the rug than Erdogan and Putin might hope. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies Burhan Ozbilici writes: The event seemed routine, the opening of an exhibit of photographs of Russia. So when a man in a dark suit and tie pulled out a gun, I was stunned and thought it was a theatrical flourish. Instead, it was a coolly calculated assassination, unfolding in front of me and others who scrambled, terrified, for cover as the trim man with short hair gunned down the Russian ambassador. – Associated Press Sean McMeekin writes: The brutal murder of the Russian Ambassador in Ankara in mid-speech on live video by a Turkish national screaming “Allahu Akhbar” is the stuff of geopolitical nightmares. Parallels to the Sarajevo outrage of June 1914 come easily to mind. – American Interest Frederick W. Kagan writes: Russia is on a collision course with the West. War is not inevitable. Confrontation and conflict are. The sources of hostility are primarily within Russia. They transcend the aims of Vladimir Putin, but spring rather from fundamental problems created during the collapse of the Soviet Union. Any Russian leader following Boris Yeltsin would have had to cope with them. Others would have handled them differently, but not necessarily better from the West’s perspective or from Russia’s. These problems form inherent and irreducible contradictions in Russia’s relationship with the West. – American Enterprise Institute
Leon Aron writes: In this installment, I explore the domestic impact of Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war and the strategies deployed by the Russian authorities to contain these effects. I sketch a few other tendencies that might energize and expand the Russian Muslim radical fringe. – War on the Rocks Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said that the Berlin Christmas market where 12 people died Monday night was the target of a terrorist attack, and that the authorities were investigating whether it was perpetrated by a migrant or refugee. – New York Times
The German authorities were at first typically cautious about describing it as an attack, as opposed to an accident. They now say that it was likely an act of terrorism. Like similar episodes, it involved a public space, an emblem of common ground and open society. But in this case, the symbolism of the site ran even deeper. – New York Times The U.N. nuclear agency chief says Iran is complying with obligations limiting uranium enrichment. But two diplomats say the agency has warned Tehran that unless it slows the process it could soon bust through its cap on material that could be used to make a bomb. –New York Times Emanuele Ottolenghi writes: The Trump administration should reverse both policies: revoke U.S. licenses to sell Iran aircraft and slap heavy penalties on companies still working with Mahan. -The Hill Yossi Cohen, the head of Mossad, secretly traveled to the United States for the meeting to discuss security issues ranging from the Iran nuclear agreement to the civil war in Syria. –The Hill
Robert Joseph and Ray Takeyh write: The emerging Trump administration has pledged to push back on Iran. Doing so will require the reestablishment of U.S. leadership and credibility abroad, focused diplomatic initiatives, and a viable military presence. But the most certain means of fighting back against Iran’s imperial surge is to imperil its revolution at home. By exploiting the country’s internal vulnerabilities, the United States can not only deter Iran from pursuing its regional exploits but hopefully create a situation from which a democratic government can emerge. After years of negotiating with Iran, it is time for a bold policy designed to secure Western interests and values. – Foreign Affairs’ Snapshots Annie Fixler writes: [T]he onus should remain on Iran to demonstrate a real change in its approach to terrorist and proliferation financing, money laundering, and other illicit financial actions. If Tehran is disappointed by the benefits it has thus far reaped from sanctions relief, it should consider cleaning its financial house before trying to squeeze Washington into lifting more sanctions. – Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Evoking Kissinger on China and North Korea
From Joseph A. Bosco, RealClearDefense: “For twenty years, Henry Kissinger has had the ear of Chinese leaders regarding the need to stop North Korea’s nuclear program. But also over that period, Chinese leaders have had Kissinger’s ear on the complexity of the problem. Their whispering has consistently proved more persuasive.Donald Trump, new to the issue, intends to take a less nuanced approach with China, but the divergence and convergence on four key issues suggest an effective policy approach for the Trump administration.”
Crisis in the Korean Peninsula. @gordongchang. Bob Collins, Seoul.
"...The Park supporters, who last held a major rally in mid-November, began their demonstration first. Later, anti-Park protesters packed the streets of central Seoul for an eighth straight weekend. Many of the opponents were angry that Park's lawyers argued on Friday that the impeachment had no legal basis. "This is my first time out here, but yesterday when I heard about her opinion against the impeachment submitted to the Constitutional Court, whatever pity I had felt for her disappeared," Roh Yi-young, 55, said. Park's lawyers struck a defiant note in their first comments since the impeachment vote, saying the motion should be overturned by the Constitutional Court, which has 180 days to review it. The lawyers' submission to the court rejected all the points made in the impeachment motion approved by a wide margin by parliament on Dec. 9 which accused her of violating her constitutional duty and breaking the law." http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-idUSKBN14604B?il=0
"NATO Needs a Nuclear Strategy Update" @elbridgecolby @cnasdc May 27, 2015 2:25 p.m. ET
"Moscow is ready to use its arsenal to deter pushback against its aggressions. NATO needs a plan for how to stare down such threats. "In a contest over the Baltics, for instance, Moscow might seek to use its “little green men” and its advantages in conventional weaponry in the immediate area to create a fait accompli in, for instance, eastern Estonia. Having bitten off a chunk of NATO territory, Moscow might then state that any NATO attacks on Russian sovereign territory would constitute unprovoked escalation and threaten a nuclear response should NATO respond. In such a scenario, the Russian air defense and other military systems that NATO would need to attack in order to dislodge Russian forces from Estonia could easily be operated from within Russia’s own territory. If unprepared, NATO might find itself unwilling to countenance precisely the kind of escalation it would need to undertake to eject Russian forces from the territory of a member state. A failure in such a contingency could precipitate the collapse of the alliance, with grave consequences for regional security and world order. This scenario may sound a bit far-fetched, but it isn’t impossible. The Kremlin wants to re-establish its sphere of influence in its near abroad, possibly including the Baltics, and it wants to push back and divide NATO. We know that Russia has the conventional capabilities to invade sovereign states and shift borders, as we have seen in Ukraine. Many Westerners today imagine the Russian military as the hobbled, drunken giant of the 1990s. In fact, at least a good chunk of Russian forces today are well-trained, well-equipped and professional. Russia, moreover, has been giving a great deal of attention to its nuclear forces, including to how it can use these forces for practical strategic and political effect. The Kremlin has evinced particular interest in the notion of “escalating to de-escalate”—the idea of conducting a dramatic nuclear (or lapel-grabbing nonnuclear) attack to spook the other side into backing down...." http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-needs-a-nuclear-strategy-update-1432751143
Editorial: In the intervening years, oil industry experts and other analysts say, as Mr. Putin consolidated his control over Russia’s oligarchs, Mr. Tillerson underwent a profound change of outlook. He came to realize that the key to success in Russia, a country deeply important to Exxon’s future, lay in establishing personal relationships with Mr. Putin and his friend and confidant, Igor Sechin, the powerful head of Rosneft, the state oil company. –New York Times
Unlike its Soviet predecessor, the contemporary Russian military is neither sized nor structured for conquest to the shores of the Atlantic and Mediterranean. But this does not mean it deserves the disdain it often receives in the Western commentariat. Indeed, the Russian military is increasingly capable of helping to achieve what seem to be the Kremlin’s actual strategic objectives in Europe.
Many observers, including some in NATO and Western governments, think Moscow is interested in recreating a Russian sphere of influence and even, if possible, hegemony in its near abroad, including along its western periphery. This objective is apparent from Russia’s seizure of Crimea and intervention in Ukraine but also its earlier war with Georgia, its presence there and in Transdniestr, its strong hand in Belarus, and its domineering rhetoric and provocative military exercises directed towards the Baltic states and other Eastern European nations. Moreover, many Western leaders judge that Russia, more ambitiously, is keen to find ways to corrode or even break the cohesion of the NATO Alliance, thereby diminishing American involvement and opening opportunities for Russian leverage in Europe. http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/weJvFvMC5kP56DAGPJn6/full
Leon Aron writes: The current combination of mild economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure is not enough to change Putin’s foreign policy strategy in the near future. The only way to do so is to degrade his domestic support by increasing his domestic political costs. Where and how to confront, contain, and reverse current Russian foreign policy is less important than recognizing that the ultimate strategic goal is to force Putin to shift the foundation of his regime’s legitimacy from the external to the internal: away from an increasingly risky foreign policy and toward a policy to jump-start Russian economic growth through institutional reforms that would improve the investment climate and decrease tensions with the United States. – Foreign Affairs’ Snapshots
Egypt faced the prospect of a surge in sectarian bloodshed on Tuesday after the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the bombing of a Coptic cathedral in Cairo that killed 25 people on Sunday. The group warned of more attacks to come. – New York Times ISRAEL, EGYPT: Israel and Egypt Building Strong Security Ties
From Perry Cammack, The Cipher Brief: “The Egyptian – Israeli relationship was built on a foundation of security cooperation, and in many ways that cooperation has never been better. The Israeli and the Egyptian security establishments have similar worldviews; they share relatively similar threat assessments; and they see themselves facing some of the same list of enemies.” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani ordered the development of a nuclear-propulsion system for ships, describing the move as a response to the recent extension of sanctions by the U.S. Congress. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Peter Huessy writes: The Trump administration could submit the current nuclear agreement with Iran to the United States Senate as a treaty. In this way, they could in one move restore a new balance between the executive and legislative branches. Most people believe an agreement as important and consequential as the Iran “deal” must be submitted to the Senate as a treaty—and not unilaterally adopted as an executive agreement. – Real Clear Defense
Dr. Michael Auslin writes: While it may seem risky to take a hard line now against China, Washington may have no choice later on, or it will be forced to accept a major diminution of its credibility in Asia. Simply put, this is about stopping bullying in its tracks and maintaining stability in the world's most heavily-trafficked waterways. –CNN
The Strategist Six
From Patrick M. Cronin, The Strategist (ASPI): "1. China has been throwing its weight around for many centuries and will continue to do so in the future, especially if its leaders believe they can flout rules with impunity. Officials in Beijing naturally like to exploit opportunities, and in the past decade those opportunities have included the Global Financial Crisis, the incomplete and overly uni-dimensional US pivot to Asia, and the lack of unity among China’s neighbours. . ."
Joseph Bosco writes: Without itself severing relations, the United States could instead recognize Taiwan and adopt a one China, one Taiwan policy, placing on Beijing the burden for breaking U.S.-China ties. If China chose to incur the economic and other consequences and rupture relations, Washington could then invite Taipei to enter into a new defense treaty. – The Diplomat
David Feith writes: Donald Trump is a master at pinpointing the vulnerabilities of his rivals, and it doesn’t take a genius to see which issues Beijing doesn’t want to be called out on. They’re the ones it spends so much time and effort seeking to squash through censorship and intimidation at home and overseas. Like the testimony of Anastasia Lin. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Cracks in the Chinese Powerhouse
From Timothy Heath, The Cipher Brief: “Like most other countries that have experienced rapid development, China is struggling to transition from a highly successful but unsustainable economic model. Such a transformation is difficult to carry out in even the best of economic climates, but Beijing faces the additional challenge of executing difficult reforms in the face of an increasingly inhospitable global economy. To avoid global stagnation, the world’s leading economies require even closer coordination and innovative policies to spur global demand. Whether global leaders can resist the growing call for retrenchment and enact policies that invigorate growth remains to be seen.”
China's H-6K Strategic Bomber Circling Taiwan
From Sebastien Roblin, The National Interest, The National Interest: “China recently deployed one of its H-6 bombers on a long-range patrol of the Nine-Dash Line that it claims marks the extent of its territorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. The flight was made in response to remarks by President-elect Trump suggesting that the United States might abandon its long-standing policy towards Taiwan and recognize the island as an independent country. As such, the patrol was an almost flattering imitation of the U.S. Air Force’s practice of flying enormous B-52 bombers by countries that have aroused Washington’s ire as a means of broadcasting threat and registering displeasure. Take, for example, a B-52 overflight of waters claimed by China one year ago.”
Clint Watts and Andrew Weisburd write: Having shattered many Americans’ faith in their democracy, Russia now feels emboldened. And with major elections coming up in France, Germany and the Netherlands, you can bet that Putin’s work is not done. Here’s how he does it - Politico
Russia's Plan to Divide and Conquer the West
From Stratfor: "Shifting political winds and growing discord among Western powers that, so far, have stood shoulder-to-shoulder against Russia have created an opening for Moscow as it seeks to bring an end to its two-year standoff with the West. Following the 2014 revolution in Ukraine, Russia's intervention in the country’s east and its annexation of Crimea drew a series of economic sanctions from the United States and the European Union that are still in force. Today, both Russia and NATO members are building up their forces along Russia's western borderlands, and relations between Moscow and many Western powers are at a post-Cold War low. Though Russia is interested in easing tensions with the West, it will not trade away its strategic position in the region by relieving pressure on Ukraine or other countries along its border to do so."
The United States and Russia Are Already at War
From Alexander Velez-Green, Small Wars Journal: "The United States and Russia are already at war. At least, that’s what many in Moscow seem to think. This war is not fought like past conflicts. It’s prosecuted today primarily by non-military means. But, the secondary role of military operations does not lessen the danger it poses to U.S. strategic interests. Moscow is targeting the United States in ways that sidestep America’s traditional understanding of warfare. Its seeks to cripple the United States, shatter NATO, and fill the void left by America’s absence. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration may offer opportunities to de-escalate the confrontation. But doing so successfully will depend on Washington’s ability to adapt to Moscow’s novel way of war." U.S. Must Deliver a "Painful" Response to Putin From Ashish Kumar Sen, Atlantic Council: "There are huge national security implications of Russia’s meddling in the US presidential elections, which is why the Obama administration must deliver an overt response that is painful to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said Michael Morell, a former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency. “In order for a US response to actually result in deterrence two things have to be true—one, it has got to be overt, it has got to be seen, and two, it has got to be painful to Putin,” said Morell, who is an Atlantic Council board member. Delivering that response is the responsibility of the Obama administration because the meddling happened on its watch, he added." Taiwan President-elect Donald J. Trump has made it clear that he views the central basis for diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing — known as the “One China” policy — as ripe for review…Here are five ways the Chinese could make life difficult for a Trump administration – New York Times If America straps a warhead to a Chevy Silverado, does it own a nuclear-capable truck? Technically yes, though the United States arguably has far more efficient ways of maintaining its nuclear deterrent. The same might be said for the “nuclear-capable” Chinese H-6K bombers that flew around Taiwan and over disputed areas within the South China Sea, according to some analysts. – Stars and Stripes Gary Schmitt writes: Many have seen the call between Tsai and Trump as a significant break in the conventions that have governed US-Taiwan relations over the past four decades. For some it’s a colossal mistake; for others, myself included, it’s about time we reconsidered Taiwan’s place in our foreign and defense policies. But the brief snippet from Trump’s Fox News interview suggests that there may well be a third way to read the call — a Donald Trump way in which this potential new opening to Taiwan is dealt in return for better behavior from China. – AEI Ideas
Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile systems are no longer just visiting Kaliningrad, they're there to stay and just bought a cozy little bungalow in the enclave's interior. Researchers Jeffrey Lewis and Veli-Pekka Kivimäki found social media imagery posted by Russia's 152nd Missile Brigade and combined it with commercial satellite imagery to uncover Russia's construction of “tent-mobile” shelters designed to house the nuclear-capable missile systems. The permanent deployment is a reversal of precedent in which Russia has sent Iskanders to Kaliningrad for temporary exercises. Their indefinite placement, as Russian officials point out, puts U.S. missile defense systems in Poland in range. U.S. Russian Rivalry
A sense of Russian exceptionalism is driving Vladimir Putin’s moves in Eurasia, Ukraine and Syria, a leading Russia scholar said Monday. – USNI News As the Soviet Union was breaking up 25 years ago, Mikhail Gorbachev expected the United States and its Western allies to provide vital aid. The former Soviet president thinks their failure to offer significant help wasted a chance to build a safer world and resulted from short-sighted gloating at a Cold War rival's demise. – Associated Press Jakub Grygiel writes: Russia is not a misunderstood power asking for sympathy but a predatory rival in search of gains. To anyone proposing a grand bargain, the answer should be clear: nuts. – The American Interest IMPACT OF BOMBING: Turkey Scrambles to CUT LOSSES in SYRIA, al-Monitor MAPPING THE KURDS: Atlantic Council WAR ON THE ROCKS: The Kurdish Insurgency in Turkey
Turkey faces a historic crossroads as lawmakers prepare to debate a controversial bill introduced this weekend to concentrate power in the office of the presidency, at a time when the nation is polarized about whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is a force for stability or insecurity. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Turkey’s crackdown on Kurdish politicians, officials, news outlets, schools, municipalities, think tanks and even charities has been so thoroughgoing that it has left those who remain free expecting arrest at any moment. – New York Times Turkey’s third-quarter GDP has shrunk 1.8 per cent — its first year on year decline since 2009 — confirming a deterioration in the country’s consumption-driven economy as its currency falls, inflation remains stubbornly high and citizens pull back on spending. – Financial Times Yaroslav Trofimov writes: Mr. Erdogan’s Turkey has come to look increasingly like just another troubled corner of the Middle East. And, many Turks and Westerners fear, the country is becoming infected with the same sicknesses—intolerance, autocracy, repression—that have poisoned the region for decades. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) |
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