By Hans Rühle & Michael Rühle, National Institute for Public Policy: “A reaffirmation of extended deterrence. The US “nuclear umbrella” for allies remains a major pillar of the global security order, stability and an important non-proliferation tool. Consolidating extended deterrence not only includes maintaining the appropriate military hardware but also the persistent engagement with allies on nuclear strategy, possible arms control, and new challenges such as Russia’s nuclear first-use threats and remaining united in the face of a Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty.”
By Crispin Rovere, RealClearDefense: “This analysis recommends war. It is shocking to put to print. However, with North Korea’s inexorable advance towards developing a nuclear-tipped ICBM, we enter the realm of bad choices. On balance, war on the peninsula is the least bad alternative. There are some months left for a brilliant diplomatic breakthrough that turns North Korea from the brink – these avenues must be energetically and exhaustively pursued. This analysis is presented on the fair assumption that such initiatives will fail.”
North Korea’s ICBM and Breaking 21st Century Trench Warfare
By ML Cavanaugh, Modern War Institute: “Military strategists should seek options that fall under what Basil H. Liddell Hart called the “indirect approach,” a general orientation toward putting our strengths against relative enemy weaknesses. And this is not a single, simple act or solitary proposition. There’s no one magic bullet, but—there is effective buckshot. As with Biddle’s “modern system,” we should look to develop a new basket of tactical and operational activities that cumulatively avoid the enemy’s fire strength in favor of their vulnerabilities (or, at least competitions that favor us). Here are four such options that fall under an indirect military strategy for breaking the twenty-first-century version of trench warfare.”
By John Schilling, 38 North: “In perhaps five years, North Korea may be able to incorporate a modest suite of decoys and penetration aids to challenge US missile defenses. Let’s hope US missile defenses are up to that challenge.”
North Korea: Is War on the Horizon?
By Berny Belvedere, Arc Magazine: “"[When it comes to] China, North Korea is a headache, but the two countries remain partners. There’s the momentum of the historical relationship, and the fear that removing support could lead to collapse. But, even with the headache, China finds North Korea strategically useful."”