China's Current Account Surplus Is Likely Much Bigger Than Reported
by Brad W. Setser
Thomas J. Duesterberg writes: Altogether, the various proposals work to weaken China’s attempts to reinvigorate growth by relying on increased trade, attracting more Western capital, and acquiring technology illicitly to increase competitiveness in industries of the future. These proposals will limit Chinese access to Western capital, which the PRC needs for its faltering financial sector and government balance sheets. The measures will also hinder China’s access to Western technology while limiting the PRC’s drive to displace Western industry in global markets. – Hudson Institute
China and America Are Not Destined for War
By Joseph S. Nye, The Strategist (ASPI): “The great-power competition between the United States and China is a defining feature of the first part of this century, but there’s little agreement on how it should be characterised.”
The Debt Supercycle Comes to China By Kenneth Rogoff |
Explaining a decline in the Chinese economy boils down to reduced demand from an aging, contracting population. READ HERE
What To Do About North Korean Nuclear Weapons
by Christopher Ford via Hoover Institution Press Recounting the history of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program and the failure of past efforts at negotiated “denuclearization,” this essay explores the options of (1) continuing with denuclearization diplomacy or (2) pursuing “arms control” with North Korea but instead recommends (3) a policy of prolonged pressure and isolation to limit the development of North Korea’s capabilities as much as possible and make its example unattractive to future would-be proliferators.
Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks
by Brad W. Setser
Is China Quitting the Economic Race?
America Needs a “Cold War” Strategy for China Breaking China’s Hold
China’s Technology Strategy: Leverage Before Growth
Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors | June 2023
The Debt Issue Isn't Over By Allison Schrager
As usual, the debt ceiling drama came and went. But drama obscured the important fact that US debt is still too large and growing to much higher levels on the path it is on. It is a problem that needs to be addressed. READ HERE
What Happens When Cities Run Out of Money
By Henry Grabar | SlateFrom the East and West Coasts to the Midwest, cities around the country are struggling to manage the financial implications of a “death spiral:” flagging transit ridership, reduced traffic in business districts, and an increasingly remote workforce. READ HERE
Erdoğan’s unorthodox economic policy
As the Chinese economy sputters, could it be headed for a “lost decade”? Desmond Lachman compares China’s stagnating economy Jobs Are Booming. Productivity Growth Isn't. What's Up with That? The Happiest Way to Change Jobs
Iran: The Dollarization Temptation by Amir Taheri
— David P. Goldman (@davidpgoldman) April 16, 2023
In new research for AEI, Derek Scissors forecasts these dynamics to suggest why China may not be able to keep up with the United States into the 2040s.
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