TRUMP'S SYRIAN PULLOUT IS RIGHT & HOW GULF PERSIAN PETROL MONARCHIES WILL FILL VOID IN SYRIA1/8/2019
The clash between Trump and his generals
(Military Times) A prominent retired four-star admiral says that several former generals have left President Donald Trump’s administration because their advice and many years of military experience did not make a difference in swaying the White House on key national security issues.
Mattis, Kelly marched to the establishment beat. Trump was right to fire them
(Fox News) What is it with these generals? Imagine their reaction if someone under their command behaved like they did with President Trump.
Trump's Instincts Are Correct On Syria, If Not His Haste
by Thomas H. Henriksen via The Hill President Trump’s abrupt announcement last month to yank U.S. military forces from their fight against the Islamic State in Syria plunged the American foreign policy establishment into near-hysteria. Now, it seems that the White House is having second thoughts about a hasty withdrawal after all.
Gary Schmitt notes that while Trump was decisive, he was also irresponsible. As every member of his national security team has explained, ISIS is not defeated, Iran’s sway in the Levant will only grow if the US leaves, and abandoning the Syrian Kurds will be another example of Washington’s lack of seriousness when it comes to backing partners and allies. Read more here.
President Trump has presented Americans with a clarifying moment. Should the United States retreat into an "America First" isolationist shell, or should it remain engaged with the world? In a Hill op-ed, Fred Kagan argues that those on both sides of the political aisle who see the dangers of the Syria withdrawal must unite to recreate a world in which the US and its ideals can once again be safe and ultimately thrive. By uniting, the US has every hope of succeeding. If it does not, the US is doomed. Finish here. Up until his decision to draw down troops from Syria, President Trump had been the anti-Obama — talking a foolish game that masked a serious policy, writes Danielle Pletka for AEIdeas. However, by pulling out of Syria, Trump has ensured a continued threat to US interests and a victory for Iran and terrorists. Continue the piece here. In a Washington Post op-ed, Marc Thiessen points out that Iran, Russia, the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and ISIS are all celebrating Trump’s decision to pull troops from Syria. A US withdrawal not only removes pressure on ISIS, but also creates a vacuum to be filled by the world’s worst actors. Al Qaeda will have a haven. Iran and its terrorist proxy, Hezbollah, will establish forward operating bases. Turkey will go after US-trained Kurdish fighters. And the Assad regime will resume its campaign of atrocities against Syrian citizens. When your enemies are cheering, you have made a mistake. Learn more here. The Islamic State is not defeated in Syria. Or anywhere else. In an AEIdeas blog, Critical Threats Project Senior Analyst Emily Estelle explains that ISIS is alive and well in both Syria and Africa. The conditions that permitted the group’s rise remain, and the Salafi-jihadi threat will grow if the US convinces itself that the Islamic State is “defeated.” Read the full blog here and watch Estelle discuss ISIS in Syria on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” here.
The diminished economic role of the United States in the Middle East allows regional powers and China to redirect the future of economic development in the region, writes Karen Young for Lawfare. The Sino-Arab Gulf visions share a strong belief in the state’s role in economic growth and the ability to direct state resources for political goals and domestic economic stability. What is absent, however, is a standard framework of development finance on shared international norms of multilateral institutions. Read more about the Sino-Arab Gulf visions of economic development here.
What will Iran’s looming civil war look like? In a National Interest op-ed Michael Rubinexplains that there are ample signs that Iranian security forces are beginning to lose their grip. Not only do the economic protests that began nearly a year ago continue sporadically, but in recent months, terrorists and insurgents have grown increasingly bold along Iran’s periphery. As the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s health waivers, the central government’s control appears increasingly weak. Continue here. In an AEIdeas blog, Karen Young explains that there are now two kinds of intra–Gulf Cooperation Council rivalries. First is the long-standing “boys with toys” competition that plays out in the accumulation of professional sports events from Formula 1 races to hosting the World Cup — a soft power projection of brand association. The second arena of competition, however, is much more impactful and long-standing: the Gulf States are engaged in a battle of economic intervention. Learn more about the rivalries here.
Options for the U.S. Middle East Strategic Alliance
By Colby Connelly, Divergent Options: “How to approach Iranian influence is one issue among others that has contributed to the ongoing boycott of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017. The Trump Administration has encouraged a settlement to the dispute but has made little headway." Israel’s regional cooperation minister said Israel is ready to move ahead with a multibillion dollar project with Jordan to pipe water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, an idea that’s been on the drawing board for years. – Bloomberg David Makovsky and Dennis Ross write: With the Russians now adopting a tougher policy toward Israel’s freedom of action in Syria and Lebanon, how do Netanyahu and other candidates propose to deal with them? The challenge is especially acute because the Trump administration with its withdrawal from Syria is signaling to everyone, including the Russians, that it sees no interests in Syria regardless of whether Israel and Jordan are likely to face Iranian-backed threats from there. – Ynet
Seth J. Frantzman writes: Washington has a problem. It has thought that investing in a strong central government in Baghdad would reduce Iran’s role. That has not happened yet – instead US investment may have inadvertently benefited Iran. The US is also concerned about showing too much support for the Kurdish region, thinking that it has to balance Baghdad and Erbil in the Kurdish region, as opposed to simply embracing its allies in northern Iraq. – Jerusalem Post Tom Rogan writes: Why is ISIS willing to sacrifice its fighters for a video? Simple: Priceless propaganda. […]ISIS is no longer focused on the holding of territory but on the expanded holding of minds. With time, ISIS believes its physical caliphate will rise again. But it also knows that such an outcome requires human servants. Hence, the priority of propaganda. Expect more videos such as this one, and others, in the vein of the 2014-2015 video executions. – Washington Examiner
Simon Henderson writes: On December 27, Saudi Arabia announced new appointments in the name of King Salman that substantially alter the makeup of the Political and Security Affairs Council[…]. In terms of foreign policy, the changes do not suggest any immediate shift in Riyadh’s views on Iran, the Yemen war, or the ongoing diplomatic spat with Qatar. The kingdom is certainly concerned about President Trump’s recent decision to pull U.S. forces out of Syria, but the new appointments were likely being prepared before that change in American policy. – Washington Institute |
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