Pakistan-Sharif, corruption probe: Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ordered further investigations into corruption allegations leveled against Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif but ruled there was insufficient evidence to order his removal from office. Asia Times reports that Sharif stands accused of failing to explain the source of money in offshore companies and of lying to parliament after allegations arose from leaks contained in the so-called “Panama Papers.” READ THE STORY HERE
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Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will meet with President Donald Trump in Washington on May 3, the White House said Wednesday. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Israelis say the strike is not about living standards. Conditions for jailed Palestinians, many of whom have killed Israelis, exceed international standards, they say. It’s about politics, the Israelis insist: a battle for leadership within the Palestinian Authority over who might replace Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas when the time comes. – Washington Post he man predicted to win Israeli elections if they were held today picks a seemingly contradictory way of describing himself: “an extreme moderate.” Once dismissed as a passing fad, Yair Lapid, a 53-year-old former TV anchor, has emerged as the most serious political rival to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And he has done so by trying to dispense with the traditional left-right divide of Israeli politics – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) U.S. Strategy for al Qaeda and ISIS: It’s Groundhog Day
From James Dubik, Strategy Bridge: “The current situation in Syria reminds us again that we are failing in our post-9/11 wars. We have accomplished neither the strategic objectives set forth by the Bush administration nor those of the Obama administration. Both administrations have had notable successes and achieved periodic tactical and operational progress, but neither created sustained strategic success.” U.S., MIDDLE EAST: U.S., Egypt and Jordan Tripatriate Alliance?
From Khalid Hassan, Al-Monitor: ““There is a major American effort to take advantage of the central roles of Egypt and Jordan in the region and rely on them to achieve stability and security in the Middle East in light of the growing Iranian threat and Tehran’s growing influence,” Hassan said. “Anyone can see that Trump is working to limit Iranian influence by every possible means.” Is India playing the two countries — both of which wail about U.S.-Russia relations being at an all-time low — off one another? Not exactly. But it is a residual effect of Soviet days, and a reminder that, for all of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s apparent move toward the United States and its allies, India values above all freedom of action in its foreign policy. – Foreign Policy’s The Cable Pakistani police opened a hate speech investigation involving two Muslim clerics on Sunday after the killing of a university student over allegations he committed blasphemy. - Reuters Sadanand Dhume writes: In a larger sense, however, an India that constricts rather than expands the choices its citizens can make is going backward. In most of the democratic world, dealing with diversity involves accommodating an expanding range of dietary preferences: think of halal meat shops in London or vegetarian Indian restaurants in suburban Virginia. It’s too bad that India appears to be traveling in the opposite direction. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Still Missing a Strategy After 16 Years in Afghanistan
From Daniel DePetris, RealClearDefense: “More than 16 years after the first Special Operations Forces unit stepped onto Afghan soil, does the United States have a strategy in Afghanistan? The Trump administration is still trying to determine the answer to that question, which is why President Trump dispatched National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster to Afghanistan for a full review of Washington’s options.”
The End of Turkey’s Democratic Experiment
From Clifford D. May, The Washington Times: “More than a quarter-century ago, when he was Istanbul’s young mayor, Mr. Erdogan quipped that democracy was “like a streetcar. When you reach your destination you get off.”
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday vigorously defended his narrow victory in a referendum granting him greater authority, dismissing criticism of the result by Turkish opposition parties, European election observers and protesters while making clear his government was moving on. – Washington Post
Turkey’s main opposition party is demanding a recount after voting irregularities were reported in Sunday’s referendum, which Mr. Erdogan won by 51.3 percent to 48.7. The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, known by its Turkish acronym H.D.P., said that as many as three million votes, far more than the margin of victory, had lacked an official stamp and should be invalidated. – New York Times President Trump called to congratulate Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday after a referendum greatly expanding his powers, according to Turkish officials, despite a more circumspect State Department response to Sunday’s vote, which international election observers declared unfair. – Washington Post The result of Turkey’s referendum on Sunday could snuff what was left of that European Union-Turkey courtship, several analysts said on Monday. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed a victory that strengthens his already extraordinary, near-authoritarian powers. – New York Times The referendum, which passed with more than 51 percent of the national vote, will create a powerful presidential office for Erdogan, according to industry and procurement officials. The news powers will allow Erdogan to get more involved with weapons programs. – Defense News Up to 2.5 million votes could have been manipulated in Sunday's Turkish referendum which ended in a tight 'Yes' vote for greater presidential powers, Alev Korun, an Austrian member of the Council of Europe observer mission, told ORF radio on Tuesday. - Reuters Editorial: The U.S. will have to work with its NATO ally. But without more evidence the U.S. should resist demands to extradite Fethullah Gülen, the Pennsylvania-based imam Mr. Erdogan accuses of masterminding the summer putsch. Mr. Erdogan has staged his own internal coup by abusing the levers of democracy to create an Islamist authoritarian state. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Amanda Sloat writes: The Trump administration appeared deferential to Turkish political sensitivities before the referendum, but the Pentagon appears anxious to move and seems unlikely to find alternative troop arrangements sufficient. If the administration proceeds with plans to support a YPG-led assault on Raqqa, it will hope Erdogan’s referendum win softens his undoubtedly negative reaction. – Foreign Policy’s Shadow Government David Ignatius writes: Two years into his campaign as change agent in this conservative oil kingdom, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman appears to be gaining the confidence and political clout to push his agenda of economic and social reform. – Washington Post A Saudi-led coalition force of 41 countries is now taking shape and has found a focus: protecting member nations against the threat from Islamic State as the militant group’s strongholds in Iraq and Syria disintegrate. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is looking to the Middle East and North Africa for broader contributions and new ideas to fight Islamic extremism as the Trump administration fleshes out its counterterrorism strategy. – Associated Press
The ceremony shines a light on Iran's widening influence over an armed fringe of the opposition in Bahrain, a country with a strategic value that belies its small size. It hosts a U.S. naval base and is a close ally of Saudi Arabia, Iran's main regional rival. A quickening tempo of mostly crude bombing and shooting attacks has accompanied a government crackdown, which culminated last year in the dissolution of the main opposition bloc. - Reuters Analysis: Though still evolving, President Donald Trump's plans for Syria have come into clearer view since he ordered cruise missiles fired on a Syrian air base to punish Assad for a chemical weapons attack. The strategy breaks down into three basic phases: defeating the Islamic State group, restoring stability in Syria region-by-region and securing a political transition in which Assad ultimately steps down. – Associated Press
Emanuele Ottolenghi writes: Washington should consider designating the Abadan Refining Company for selling jet fuel to the aircraft involved in the airlifts and its parent company, the National Iran Oil Refining and Distribution Company. Additional targets should include the aircraft’s primary insurers, and the financial institutions involved in facilitating the transactions. Sanctions against Iran proved effective once already. It is high time the president aims them at Tehran again. – The Hill U.S.-backed Iraqi forces have made progress extracting Islamic State fighters from their last redoubts in the northern city of Mosul, but the battle has descended into a frustratingly bloody affair at its six-month milestone with brutal street-by-street combat. – Washington Post Iraqi forces gained fresh ground in door-to-door fighting in the Old City of Mosul, a military spokesman said on Monday, as the U.S.-backed offensive to capture Islamic State's de facto capital in Iraq entered its seventh month. - Reuters
The spokesman for the Joint Operation Command in Iraq says the Islamic State group has attacked government troops with some type of gas in western Mosul — the second such attack in as many days. – Associated Press Flooding has made all bridges across the Tigris in and out of western Mosul impassable, cutting off aid supplies and escape routes for people fleeing the Islamic State-held part of the Iraqi city. - Reuters James Jeffrey writes: An American-Iraqi decision on keeping U.S. troops in the country must be taken soon, as the rationale for their current presence—to defeat Islamic State—will fade as it is destroyed. The justification for a longer-term presence would be to train and equip Iraqi forces and assist against ISIS remnants. Strategically, it could also help keep Iraq independent of Iran. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) How to Take Over Syria, Roman Edition From Kevin Kallmes, Notes On Liberty: “While Trump’s decision to bomb a Syrian airfield in response to use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government got the lion’s share of the press attention about American involvement in Syria (probably because of the contrast with Obama’s preference for diplomacy despite his “red line” threat), the more important strategic operations have not been discussed as fully. Building upon the successful establishment of two airfields last year, the US has expanded or established bases at crucial locations and begun to attack key targets in the northern part of Syria that show an excellent understanding of the topography and logistics of the region. These developments may be the linchpin in choking off traffic and crippling supply and movement of ISIL, and should contribute to the long-term goal of securing Hasakah and Raqqah provinces. What is interesting in all of this, perhaps due to the historical expertise of National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, is that this logistical focus mimics the attack routes that were vital to invasions of the area from Alexander the Great down to Julian the Apostate.” Dozens of people were killed in the Syrian city of Aleppo on Saturday when a car bomb struck a group of buses carrying residents and fighters who had been evacuated from two besieged towns the day before. – New York Times
Some 3,000 residents and pro-government fighters were expected to evacuate a besieged Syrian town Sunday as part of an ongoing population transfer deal, the day after a car bomb targeting a convoy of evacuees killed more than 125 people. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) [S]ix years since the war began, this mountain of documentation — more perhaps than in any conflict before it — has brought little justice. The people behind the violence remain free, and there is no clear path to bring the bulk of the evidence before any court, anywhere. – New York Times Lawmakers in Britain are urging the government to revoke the U.K. citizenship of the wife of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in response to her support for her husband’s government during the six-year civil war. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty The Syrian army regained the strategic town of Soran near the city of Hama in the central part of western Syria on Sunday with an assault backed by heavy Russian air strikes, rebels and residents said. - Reuters The evacuation of more than 3,000 Syrians that was scheduled to take place Sunday from four areas as part of a population transfer has been postponed, opposition activists said, a day after a deadly blast that killed more than 120 people, many of them government supporters. – Associated Press Eli Lake reports: Senior White House and administration officials tell me Trump's national security adviser, General H.R. McMaster, has been quietly pressing his colleagues to question the underlying assumptions of a draft war plan against the Islamic State that would maintain only a light U.S. ground troop presence in Syria. – Bloomberg View Josh Rogin reports: The Trump administration is working hard to come up with a comprehensive strategy for Syria after striking the forces of Bashar al-Assad earlier this month. To that end, congressional leaders are preparing a new push to get their old ideas for pressuring the Syrian president, Russia and Iran to the president’s desk. – Washington Post Frederic Hof writes: Getting eastern Syria right and taking the time to do it right are essential. But as the start of baseball season reminds us, keeping ones eye on the ball is essential. The Assad regime is the beating heart of the Syrian catastrophe. A strategy reverting to the practice of leaving him free to kill at will—provided he does so without chemicals—is a plan for failure, one that will outlive this administration and its successors for as far as the eye can see, and even beyond. – Atlantic Council H.R. McMaster, U.S. President Donald Trump's national security adviser, has arrived in Pakistan, a day after holding talks with Afghan leaders in Kabul. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty The Pakistan military says it has prevented a major terrorist attack planned for Easter after a successful overnight raid. – The Hill Militants have stepped up attacks in Indian-ruled Kashmir and police warned officers not to go home, amid a spike in violence in the contested region, after the army allegedly tied a man to the front of a jeep as a human shield. - Reuters An Afghanistan Strategy for Trump From Ronald Neumann, David Petraeus, & Earl Anthony Wayne, The National Interest: “President Trump is dispatching National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster to Afghanistan as part of a U.S. strategy in that key country. Afghanistan is America’s longest-standing commitment in the post-9/11 struggle against terrorism and remains a frontline state in that effort. In February, the commanding U.S. general in Afghanistan testified that some twenty terrorist groups are operating in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, the “highest concentration” in the world.” Talks between the United States and Afghanistan wrapped up here on Sunday, as the Trump administration reviews its options in the 15-year American presence in Afghanistan in the face of a resurgent Taliban. – New York Times
The American military’s use of the most powerful conventional bomb in its arsenal on an Islamic State cave complex in Afghanistan has stirred up political trouble for the Afghan government, as former President Hamid Karzai on Saturday called his successor “a traitor” and declared that he wanted the Americans gone from the country. – New York Times To potential adversaries like Syria and North Korea, the bombing could signal deterrence. For the American public, it underscored the Pentagon’s more aggressive stance under President Trump than under his predecessor, whose administration never even debated using the weapon. – New York Times U.S. forces in Afghanistan have not yet assessed the impact of a massive strike on Islamic State militants in the eastern part of the country, a military spokesman said Friday, raising questions about the already controversial decision to deploy a 22,000-pound bomb on the battlefield. – Washington Post Dropping the 11-ton "mother of all bombs" in Afghanistan was another indication that President Donald Trump has delegated more authority to field commanders in the conduct of operations against enemies worldwide. – Military.com The number of militants killed in an attack by the largest non-nuclear weapon ever used in combat by the U.S. military has risen to 94, an Afghan official said Saturday. – Associated Press General David Petraeus, USA (Ret.); Ronald Neumann, and Earl Wayne write: Given the importance of American investments in Afghanistan, and the terrorist groups still operating there, a fresh look at the U.S. strategy and vision is invaluable. The policy review should re-anchor America’s approach and role in the strategic country for at least the next four years. – The National Interest Max Boot writes: Victory in any counterinsurgency requires improving the effectiveness of the government and bringing 24/7 security to the countryside. In the case of Afghanistan, it is simply not possible to achieve those objectives with only 8,500 United States troops assisting the embattled Afghan security forces, which are suffering heavy casualties and losing ground. General Nicholson asked for a “few thousand” more advisers, and if the Trump administration wants to maintain even the existing, tenuous level of security, it will have to, at a minimum, meet his request. Bombs alone, no matter how big, won’t get the job done. – New York Times Andrew Exum writes: After the nuclear deal with Iran, we in the Obama administration no longer had the credibility to deliver it—an annoying fact given the 35,000 American troops who currently sit in or offshore Sunni Arab Gulf states protecting them from Iran. The Trump administration can. But it will have to do so in a way that doesn’t suck the United States in further to a hopeless war that has already brought far too much suffering to the people of the region. – The Atlantic
A slim majority of Turkish voters agreed on Sunday to grant sweeping powers to their president, in a watershed moment that the country’s opposition fears may cement a system of authoritarian rule within one of the critical power brokers of the Middle East. – New York Times
The political rivals of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were Monday preparing to file formal objections to a closely-contested vote that, should results stand, would centralize governing powers in his presidential office and radically alter Turkey’s democracy. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) A Turkish prosecutor has opened an investigation into 17 people accused of fomenting last year’s failed coup, including many prominent American officials, academics and politicians, state news media reported on Saturday. – New York Times Turkey’s resulting grip in Germany is coming back to haunt both sides. German intelligence agencies and politicians now charge that Mr. Erdogan is using the decades-old arrangement to hunt down and punish opponents as he pursues a desperately wanted victory that would make his authority all but unchallengeable. – New York Times Editorial: The danger for the Middle East, and for Turkey’s NATO allies, is that the country could evolve into an Islamist state in the mold of Iran—albeit Sunni, not Shiite. Mr. Erdogan beguiled many in his early years as an Islamist leader who claimed to respect democratic norms, but the sad irony is that his drive for authoritarian power will lead many in the West to the unfortunate conclusion that Islam and democracy are incompatible. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Martin Peretz writes: For those of us who care for Israel, we are in an old, sad, difficult dilemma. Our principles, our people’s experience of the diaspora, our belief in transcending difference, our dismay at Republican tribal politics leads us to the Democrats. But there comes a point at which the urge to transcend difference comes at the expense of hard realities. Michael Oren was right—the last president passed that point with Israel. How much will his successors in the party leadership follow his lead? – Tablet
Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Trump, like nearly all of his White House predecessors dating back to Dwight Eisenhower, has made Middle East peace a priority for Washington. Putin’s recognition of West Jerusalem as Israel’s capital should signal to Trump and son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner, whom Trump tasked with brokering a Middle East peace deal, that the Kremlin plans to play a larger role in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Trump may play peacemaker, but he will not be alone in the sandbox. – Foreign Affairs U.S. Options for Regime Change in Syria From Christopher Bolan, Divergent Options: “In the aftermath of the strikes, the Trump Administration signaled an apparent about-face as National Security Advisor (NSA) Herbert Raymond “H. R.” McMaster declared that U.S. policy in Syria would “simultaneously” pursue the twin goals of destroying the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and removing Assad. While the fight against ISIS is making significant progress, the administration has not yet articulated a detailed strategy for pursuing the ouster of Assad. There are two broad options available . . . " Julia Ioffe writes: The American airstrike on the Shayrat air base in Syria didn’t do all that much. A day and 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles later, Bashar al-Assad was still in power, his planes were still taking off from Shayrat, still flying and still dropping bombs and killing people in the same areas of Idlib Province where a sarin gas attack killed more than 80 people last week. What the strike did do, though, was radically alter the power dynamic between Moscow and Washington that Vladimir Putin had spent the last three years establishing: one in which Putin acts and Washington, gobsmacked, scrambles to react. – The Atlantic
Erin Wodewald writes: The U.S. is fairly efficient at removing tyrants – think Saddam Hussein or Muammar Gaddafi – but we are less adept at filling the void that is left behind. Even when we have had time to adjust our support from a failing ally to a more viable option (the Shah in 1979 or Mubarak in 2011), we have lacked the foresight and nimbleness to act in time with a plausible alternative. In Syria, finally, we now might have the opportunity to thoughtfully prepare for what comes next. Because what fills the void matters. – Philos Project Breaking the Stalemate in Afghanistan
From Robert Cassidy, The National Interest: “After 15-plus years, the war in Afghanistan remains a strategic stalemate because defeating an enemy requires taking away its capacity and will. The Coalition and Afghan forces have hit the enemy’s capacity year after year but the Taliban’s will—their senior leaders, support, resources, rest, regeneration, and arms—continue to benefit from sanctuary and support from Pakistan’s security establishment.” Egypt on Wednesday named the suicide bomber who attacked a cathedral in Alexandria as 31-year-old Mahmoud Hassan Mubarak Abdullah, describing him as a fugitive with links to militant cells that carried out previous strikes in the country. - Reuters
Michele Dunne writes: Sisi’s visit to Washington delivered him a public relations boost, but it was no cakewalk. And Egyptian assessments of the visit, and the relationship with Trump, might well change if it becomes clear that Sisi is unlikely to get any more assistance—and might even get less—from the new administration than he got from Obama. If Sisi is seen at home as not being able to deliver increased assistance from the United States, this could potentially affect the degree of support he enjoys from his most important constituency—the military—in the coming year as he prepares for another presidential bid in 2018. – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Russia’s decision to proceed with a meeting this week aimed at ending the 16-year war in Afghanistan could further strain its ties with Washington — a relationship that has been on the rocks since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2014 and intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015. – Stars and Stripes
Iran and Russia have stepped up challenges to U.S. power in Afghanistan, American and Afghan officials say, seizing on the uncertainty of future U.S. policy to expand ties with the Taliban and weaken the country’s Western-backed government. – Washington Post
Afghanistan’s military should be able to carry on the fight against Taliban insurgents mostly without the help of U.S. and other foreign troops by 2020, Afghanistan’s ambassador to the United States said Tuesday. – USA Today Nate Schenkkan writes: Turkey is a large and diverse country—ethnically, religiously, and politically. Governing this complex polity demands the opposite of what the constitutional changes entail: more powers for local representatives, protection of minority rights, a lower electoral threshold for entering parliament, and room for political experimentation. Stability through force has not worked before, and it is not going to work now. – Freedom House’s Freedom at Issue Mr. Erdogan’s government has sought to root out any remaining dissent by targeting nearly every segment of society. It has also used the purge as cover for a crackdown on dissidents of all stripes…The numbers are extraordinary. The government has fired or suspended about 130,000 people suspected of being dissidents from the public and private sectors. Most are accused of affiliations with the Gulen movement, the Islamic followers of Fethullah Gulen, the cleric accused of orchestrating the putsch. – New York Times
[S]ince a failed coup attempt last summer sent the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan into a frenzied hunt for its enemies, members of the news media have faced exceptional peril, according to press advocates. – Washington Post Editorial: The danger for the Middle East, and for Turkey’s NATO allies, is that the country could evolve into an Islamist state in the mold of Iran—albeit Sunni, not Shiite. Mr. Erdogan beguiled many in his early years as an Islamist leader who claimed to respect democratic norms, but the sad irony is that his drive for to authoritarian power will lead many in the West to the unfortunate conclusion that Islam and democracy are incompatible. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Soner Cagaptay writes: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, an archetype of the antielitist, far-right politician, has spent almost two decades building up to this moment. He has demonized and cracked down on constituencies unlikely to vote for him, weakening his opposition and polarizing the country. Now he hopes he has enough supporters to vote on a constitutional amendment that would put him in charge of all three branches of government. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Howard Eissenstat writes: One of the core arguments that President Erdoğan has offered for expanding his power through constitutional reforms is that further centralization of authority will increase stability. Yet the experience of the past ten years has demonstrated that the opposite is true. Without reestablishing rule of law and the independence of state institutions, without creating opportunities for those out of power to participate in their own political futures, the instability that has rocked the country over the past five years likely will intensify. The tragedy of Turkey’s failure is immense. – Project on Middle East Democracy
Tillerson in Moscow: Pushing on Syria Where Obama Failed
From Josh Lederman: “The Trump administration veered toward deeper conflict with Russia Tuesday as Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived in Moscow, gambling that an unpredictable new president armed with the willingness to threaten military action gives the U.S. much-needed leverage to end Syria's carnage.” McCain, Graham Push Trump for "Greater Military Action" In Syria From Jordain Carney, The Hill: “"As part of a broader strategy, we urge the President to take greater military action to achieve our objectives, including grounding the Syrian air force and establishing safe havens inside Syria to protect Syrians," the two senators said in a joint statement on Tuesday.”
Putin, in charge? It is highly unlikely that President Putin would have sanctioned a sarin attack in Syria because it would certainly derail a Russian peace process that he hoped Washington would eventually support. Stephen Bryen explains how some are now suggesting the various confrontations against the West in Easter Europe, the North Sea, Black Sea and Atlantic, are actually promoted by the Russian military and are not actually supported by Russia’s civilians leaders.
Vali Nasr writes: In Moscow this week, Tillerson has the opportunity to explain that the United States could strike again, and insist that Putin tightly control Assad’s actions, while also agreeing to a new U.S.-led diplomatic effort whose success alone could avert further U.S. action in Syria. Leading this process would bolster American standing in the region and across the world, and also curtail Russian ambition. Tillerson now has an opportunity to lay out a diplomatic plan for ending one of the most devastating conflicts of our time. – The Atlantic
Bassma Kodmani writes: It is only with a political transition that we can achieve a secure, democratic Syria. We do not want imposed regime change. We do not want a vacuum. We want the conditions for Syrians to be able to decide their future. To get there, we want the United States — in concert with others — to lay the foundations that will compel the regime to abandon its military strategy. This will enable us to secure a peace deal. We are ready to do our part — now we need the United States and allies to do theirs. – Washington Post |
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