Only by building out a credible Afghan government that controls its territory will we achieve the president’s goals. From the beginning, that was and remains our exit strategy. We need to keep our eyes on that exit door.
In Afghanistan, Keep Your Eye on the Exit | Ambassador Richard Boucher, Former Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia
Only by building out a credible Afghan government that controls its territory will we achieve the president’s goals. From the beginning, that was and remains our exit strategy. We need to keep our eyes on that exit door.
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PAKISTAN: Mapping Terrorist Groups Operating Inside Pakistan By Bill Roggio & Alexandra Gutowski, FDD'S Threat Matrix: “For decades, the country has permitted a number of jihadist groups to openly operate under its aegis. Many of these groups – such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harakat-ul-Muhahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Hizbul Mujahideen, and Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami – were created with the support of Pakistan’s military and the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate.” Trump's Right: It’s Time to End the Timetables for Afghanistan By Jonathan Schanzer, The Hill: “The long slog in Afghanistan just got longer. But at least this time we are not certain that the war will end in an American defeat.” Military Leaders Consolidate Power in Trump Administration By Robert Costa & Philip Rucker, The Washington Post: “Connected by their faith in order and global norms, these military leaders are rapidly consolidating power throughout the executive branch as they counsel a volatile president. Some establishment figures in both political parties view them as safeguards for the nation in a time of turbulence.” U.S., PAKISTAN: U.S. Calls Pakistan on its Double-Game
By Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief: “Since U.S forces entered into Afghanistan in the aftermath of 9/11, Pakistan has stood on the frontlines of U.S. efforts to dismantle regional terrorist groups including core al Qaeda who fled to Pakistan following the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, and, more recently, ISIS’ Khorasan branch based in Afghanistan.” Trump's New Afghanistan Strategy Gets One Thing Right but Questions Remain By Sten Rynning, The Conversation: “On its surface, this plan hits a lot of important marks for creating a stable and peaceful Afghanistan, but as an expert on the country and on international intervention, I also retain grave doubts about its sustainability and feasibility.” Taliban Conducts First Attack Since Afghanistan Strategy Announced
A Taliban suicide bomber struck an Afghan National Army convoy Wednesday in Lashkar Gah, the capital of Afghanistan’s southern Helmand province, killing seven people and injuring more than 40 others. The attack marked the first Taliban-orchestrated incident since President Donald Trump announced his strategy for Afghanistan Monday night. The Taliban already control much of Helmand province outside of Lashkar Gah and frequently conduct attacks in the provincial capital. The Cipher Take: Both U.S. and Afghan Security forces face constant threats from Taliban perpetrated violence, which has become a near-everyday occurrence in Afghanistan. The Taliban currently controls more territory in Afghanistan than at any point since 2001 while Afghan Security Forces are now believed to be in control of less than 60 percent of the country. In his speech delivered Monday evening, President Trump said that he intends to keep the U.S. military in Afghanistan and hinted at increasing U.S. troop levels in the country, although he did not address specific troop numbers or lay out benchmarks for the American people to assess his strategy’s success. Trump also outlined the U.S. approach towards the Taliban saying that one of the definitions of a U.S. victory would be “preventing the Taliban from taking over Afghanistan.” For the Cipher Brief’s analysis on the President’s speech, please click here. India rights milestone: The Supreme Court’s 3-2 verdict this week abolishing instant “triple talaq” – the practice of nullifying a marriage by uttering “talaq” (divorce) three times – is a huge victory for millions of Muslim women, and for India’s judiciary and constitution, E Jaya Kumar writes. The five judges found the practice of instant triple talaq unconstitutional, arbitrary, and un-Islamic. The federal government was directed to legislate against triple talaq in six months and is already in the process of sending an advisory to states to ensure compliance. The court ruling saw a rare convergence of views, with voices across party lines welcoming it as historic. READ THE STORY HERE
Israel, US want UN mission to target Hezbollah in Lebanon
Israel and the United States are preparing a proposal to broaden the powers of the UN mission in Lebanon to monitor Hezbollah ahead of an Aug. 30 Security Council meeting to renew its mandate. Israel has repeatedly expressed its dissatisfaction with the performance of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), claiming it is not enforcing UN resolutions against Hezbollah military activity in the region. Israel's envoy to the UN, Danny Dannon, said Wednesday that "Hezbollah has been breaching UN Security Council resolutions on a regular basis and using civilian homes as military bases. … It's time for UNIFIL to fulfill its intended task of bringing stability to the region." A UNIFIL commander said Wednesday that he had found no evidence supporting US and Israeli claims that Hezbollah is smuggling weapons into southern Lebanon. Kushner meets with Sisi after US halts aidEgyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with President Donald Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner, on Wednesday as part of Kushner’s regional tour to promote Israeli-Palestinian peace. Kushner’s visit came the same day that the United States denied Egypt $95.7 million in economic and security aid and delayed a further $195 million in military assistance over concerns with Cairo's human rights record. While the Egyptian Foreign Ministry criticized the cut on Wednesday, Sisi himself reportedly did not address the issue.
Kushner then arrived in Israel on Wednesday night alongside White House envoys Jason Greenblatt and Dina Powell. The American delegation is scheduled to meet today with both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Libya’s UN-backed government frees former prime minister Libya’s former Prime Minister Ali Zeidan has been freed nine days after his abduction in Tripoli, a relative of Zeidan said on Wednesday. Zeidan was held by a group affiliated with the UN-backed government in Tripoli, though he faced no judicial charges. He served as prime minister in 2012-14 and has since lived in Germany with his family. The UN-backed government has not commented on the case and the reasons behind Zeidan’s visit to Libya remain unclear.
Israel to revoke citizenship of 20 Israelis for joining IS
Israel’s Interior Minister Aryeh Deri said Wednesday that the citizenship of 20 Israelis who joined the Islamic State (IS) will be revoked. Deri said an amendment to Israel’s Nationality Act enacted this month allows authorities to strip the citizenship of people engaged in terrorist activities even in absentia. The Shin Bet, Israel’s security service, recently compiled a list of Israeli citizens still fighting for IS in Syria and Iraq. The list includes two Israeli Jews and 18 Israeli-Arabs. Yemenis hold massive rallies to protest Saudi intervention
Hundreds of thousands of Yemenis loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh gathered in the rebel-held capital Sanaa today to protest the Saudi-led coalition following a strike on a hotel that killed nearly 50 people. While Saleh is aligned with the Iran-backed Houthis against the UN-recognized government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, their alliance has begun to fray in recent days. Qatar to resume full diplomatic ties with Iran
Qatar announced today that it is resuming full diplomatic relations with Iran. Doha had downgraded ties and recalled its ambassador alongside other Gulf states in 2016 after protesters stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran following Riyadh's execution of a dissident Shiite cleric. The move comes after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt imposed a blockade on Qatar in June in part because it is seen as too friendly with Iran. The Qatari statement released today added that the Qatari and Iranian foreign ministers had discussed "bilateral relations and means of boosting and developing them” in a phone call. It made no mention of who will serve as Qatar’s new ambassador and what the timeline would be.
Trump Struggles to Grasp Meaning of Nation-Building | Walter Pincus, The Cipher Brief
Didn’t Trump’s claimed study of “Afghanistan in great detail and from every conceivable angle” teach him that in addition to military gains, the Kabul government needs what is called nation-building to help end corruption, encourage economic growth, construct infrastructure, and help deliver services to the public?
Trump's Afghanistan: When is nation-building not nation-building? @jedbabbin
Both problems are addressed, at least modestly, by Trump’s strategy. First, Trump warned: “We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organizations.” This will likely mean more sticks and fewer carrots for Islamabad — perhaps including new sanctions that punish Pakistan for aiding terrorist groups such as the Haqqani network that kill Americans and their allies. (Unfortunately, Trump may have undermined his Pakistan pitch by urging a closer “strategic partnership” with its archenemy, India.) Second, Trump promised support for an Afghan government under President Ashraf Ghani that is seeking to combat corruption and is planning provincial elections next summer. Stronger, better leadership will, in theory, bolster the campaign against the insurgents. “The American people expect to see real reforms, real progress and real results,” Trump said. (In addition to being a long shot, this sounds suspiciously like the nation-building Trump insists he’s abandoning.) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-afghanistan-strategy-isnt-to-win-its-to-avoid-losing/2017/08/22/0fc3b5e6-877a-11e7-a94f-3139abce39f5_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-c%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.1d2ff2c1de79 The Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) may exploit rising instability in Morocco to conduct more frequent attacks in Europe and North Africa. Moroccan security forces, which have prevented ISIS attacks in the country, are struggling to manage a growing protest movement. This civil unrest, paired with the shifting of migrant flows from Libya toward Morocco, will strain the country’s security resources and reduce pressure on ISIS networks there. Instability in Morocco also increases the risk of attacks in Europe, where Moroccan militants participated in recent ISIS attacks in Spain and a suspected ISIS-linked stabbing in Finland. [Read a recent warning on the implications of instability in Morocco.]
FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO U.N. JOHN BOLTON REVEALS HOW BEIJING UNDERWRITES PAKISTAN'S FOREIGN POLICY8/23/2017
U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Pakistan for harboring terrorist groups during a speech announcing a new U.S. military strategy in Afghanistan on August 21. A Pakistani army spokesman dismissed the criticism and stated that Pakistan has taken action against militant groups in its terrain. Pakistan will likely intensify counter-militancy operations near the Afghan border to safeguard its relationship with the U.S. Pakistan may also increase support for militant groups in the disputed Kashmir territory to counteract U.S. engagement with India. [Read Frederick W. Kagan’s “Trump outlines the foundation of a changed approach in Afghanistan.”]
China is the driver of the bad actors Pakistan and North Korea. @ambjohnbolton @thadmccotter
"...Yet another tumultuous week in domestic affairs, starting with the Charlottesville tragedy and ending with Steve Bannon departing the Trump White House, drove the continuing threats of international terrorism and nuclear proliferation off America’s front pages. The media’s vicissitudes may be inevitable, but they constantly produce “surprising” strategic developments that were both predictable and long in the making. In that vein, one of the Trump administration’s principal legacies could well be that North Korea (and Iran) became full-fledged nuclear-weapons states on its watch. If so, the risks of radical Islamic terrorism will also increase correspondingly. Certainly, President Trump’s predecessors made critical blunders in counterproliferation policy, thereby laying the foundation for this potentially massive failure. But historical blame rests inevitably with the administration that missed the last clear chance to prevent it. The mortal risk that terrorists will acquire nuclear (or chemical and biological) weapons is all too clear. ISIS claimed responsibility for Thursday’s deadly terrorist attack in Barcelona, which now appears part of a larger, more complex effort, foiled in part by Spanish authorities. Friday’s terrorist knifings in Finland added to the grim news. Imagine these or other terrorist attacks that deployed weapons of mass destruction...." http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/homeland-security/347252-opinion-trump-must-stop-north-korea-from-striking U.S. Calls Pakistan on its Double-Game | Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief
In the end, much of the United States’ long-term success in Afghanistan will hinge on Pakistan’s willingness to disband its myriad of proxy groups, contribute to a stable Afghanistan, and build a stronger alliance with the U.S. Pakistan and U.S. Don't See Same Urgency in Terror Fight | Kevin Hulbert, Former CIA Chief of Station "The 'get tough on Pakistan' talking point from the president’s speech Monday is unfortunately the same idea every president and senior U.S. policymaker has used in his talking points with senior Pakistan officials for about 16 years now." Washington Runs Serious Risk in Coercing Islamabad | Daniel Markey, Academic Director, Global Policy Program, Johns Hopkins SAIS "A coercive strategy towards Pakistan has always been risky, and nothing has really changed on that front. It risks access and it risks to some extent – if you really rupture the relationship – influence on a variety of other things that we care about including Pakistan’s nuclear program, although I don’t want to overstate the influence that we have on that." Tensions grow between Yemen's Houthis and former ally Saleh
Yemen’s Shiite Houthi rebels issued a statement Tuesday threatening the forces of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh amid a worsening fallout between the two allies. Saleh and the Houthis are both battling an Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia that backs the UN-backed government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The Popular Committees, which serve as the Houthis’ armed wing, accused Saleh of betraying them and initiating "war." Tuesday's statement is the latest salvo in a war of words that started Saturday when Houthi leader Abdul Malek al-Houthi accused unnamed parties of seeking peace deals that go against the country’s interests, an implicit rebuke of Saleh. Saleh’s response came the following day, when he criticized the Houthis for what he called their inability to govern. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR YEMENI POLICY The partnership between the al Houthi movement and former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh is fracturing. Senior al Houthi leaders accused Saleh of conducting treasonous negotiations with the Gulf States. Saleh denied the accusations and blamed the al Houthis for governance failures in Sana’a. Tensions within the al Houthi-Saleh bloc provide an opportunity for the U.S. to advance a political settlement to the Yemeni conflict. The al Houthi movement lacks the capability to continue the civil war without Saleh’s forces. An elite-brokered peace deal that does not address the grievances driving the war will not end Yemen’s instability, however. [Read Katherine Zimmerman’s recommendations for U.S. engagement in Yemen.]
The United States Sets Its Sights Beyond Afghanistan
From Stratfor: “His speech highlighted the familiar challenges associated with the Afghan theater, namely Washington's desire for Kabul to take on more responsibility for the war; Pakistan's role in providing sanctuary for militants; and a realization that a hasty withdrawal of troops could have dire consequences — such as Afghanistan becoming a base once more for transnational extremists.” ISRAEL MOVES TO DISCUSS RUSSIAN PROXIES IN SYRIA: THE MEETING BETWEEN PUTIN & NETANYAHU BEGINS8/21/2017 Netanyahu, Putin to discuss Iranian presence in Syria Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday in Sochi to discuss the cease-fire agreement in Syria, Israeli media reported Sunday. Israel opposes the deal as it believes it would increase the presence of Iranian proxy forces near its border. Wednesday’s meeting will mark the sixth time the two leaders have convened in the past two years. We wrote here last month that US-Russian coordination on Syria could “be a catalyst for a new alignment that brings Turkey closer to Syria and Iran, while testing the limits and extent of Moscow’s influence among the regional players.”
Amberin Zaman, reporting this week on the “unprecedented” visit to Ankara of Gen. Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, Iran’s chief of general staff, writes that “as the United States and Russia seek ways to end the conflict and — as Iran and Turkey see things — cut deals behind their backs, Tehran and Ankara seem eager to project unity.” Anton Mardasov adds that Moscow is seeking to maximize its leverage in Syria, including relative to Tehran. “Russia is currently opting for agreements beyond the peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan — that is, behind Iran’s back,” Mardasov writes. “Examples include the de-escalation zone in southwest Syria that Russia negotiated with the United States in Amman, Jordan, as well as de-escalation zones in eastern Ghouta and northern Homs, both of which were negotiated in Cairo.” “Since eastern Aleppo was seized, Russia has definitely increased its sway over the region. Russia turned the tide of war and helped the regime survive. However, over the war years, Tehran has gained momentum and built up a multi-layer presence in Syria that includes local Shiite militants,” Mardasov explains. “These groups include Syrian units, offshoots of the Lebanese National Ideological Resistance in Syria and Syrian Islamic Resistance groups (sometimes called Iraqi Hezbollah), the units of the Local Defense Forces in Aleppo and the National Defense Forces, comprising Alawites, Sunnis and other Syrians backed by Iranian military advisers and partially or fully funded by Iran. New Iranian cultural centers and Shiite propaganda among the locals are Tehran’s soft-power instruments. This strategy heightens ethnic and sectarian tensions in the region, which helps spread [Islamic State] and [Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] propaganda.” One potential flashpoint is on the Syrian-Israeli border. “An Israeli-Russian accord allowing the Israeli air force considerable latitude in targeting Hezbollah in Syria emerged as the first counterbalance, which undoubtedly raised Tehran’s ire,” Mardasov notes. Last month, this column asked whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would enforce Syrian red lines against Iran. And this week, in an almost mirror image of Iran’s concerns about US-Russian planning for Syria, Ben Caspit reports that Netanyahu’s support for a new law allowing him to declare war without government or Cabinet authorization is a response to concerns that Israel may be sold out by Washington and Moscow. “It is not clear if the Knesset would authorize such a law,” Caspit writes, “but the effect on the region of this publication is crystal clear: An Israeli attack on Iranian or Hezbollah infrastructures in Lebanon or in Syria would mean all-out, open war between the sides. Netanyahu wants to have sole authority to approve such an assault. This is another development in the war of nerves that has been waged in the area for some time. To many international observers, this is reminiscent of Israel’s threat regarding Iranian nuclear activity that led to intensification of the international sanctions imposed on Iran and, ultimately, to the nuclear agreement itself.” A second flashpoint is, of course, Idlib. Mardasov writes, “The rise of [al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] in rebel-controlled Idlib province and the use of delaying tactics in the negotiations play into the hands of Damascus and Tehran, which need a protracted military campaign to regain losses. They blame opposition groups for their ostensible loyalty to al-Qaeda. The Syrian government’s offensive to retake Idlib is a negative scenario for Russia and Turkey. Rebel forces will apparently rally to fight the common enemy. New coalitions will emerge among the moderate and radical opposition. Ultimately, the process will strengthen al-Qaeda's position in Syria and trigger a new humanitarian and refugee crisis. Obviously, under such circumstances, the advancing troops will also suffer heavy casualties. That's why Damascus and Iran will try to drag Russia into this new round of war. Should the situation escalate, the Kremlin would tolerate the deployment of Turkish troops.” A third flashpoint revolves around those areas in northern Syria where Turkey seeks to expand its influence and prevent the expansion of Syrian Kurdish control. Ankara accuses the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) of links to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which both the United States and Turkey consider a terrorist organization. Metin Gurcan reports that “Turkey has been working to rebuild the 772-square-mile (2,000-square-kilometer) Jarablus/al-Rai/al-Bab triangle" with "ambitious and costly reconstruction projects" that "suggest comprehensive society-building." Fehim Tastekin, in assessing Syrian Kurdish options and strategy, cites Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Aug. 2 statement: “We are determined to expand the dagger we stabbed into their project of forming a terror entity in Syria. Very soon we will take new and important steps in this direction.” Turkey’s preoccupation with beating back Syrian Kurdish control in northern Syria could open the door to some type of accommodation with Damascus. As we reported earlier this year, there may be some lessons learned from Manbij for threading the needle on the roles and interest of Turkey, the YPG, Syria, Russia and the United States. Amberin Zaman explains, “Ankara is keeping up threats to invade Afrin, the mainly Kurdish enclave across its border that is administered by the YPG and its political allies. Afrin is cut off from the rest of the contiguous YPG-run territories that are effectively under US protection, and Turkey is determined that it remains so. A Western diplomat told Al-Monitor on strict condition of anonymity that ‘Turkey would be willing to make peace with Assad in a heartbeat’ if he would help it crush the YPG. Thus Iran, which is bent on keeping Assad in power, scents an opportunity. So does Russia, which has been pressing Turkey to take firmer action against al-Qaeda-linked militants who control Idlib and according to YPG officials has been dangling Afrin as a bargaining chip.” Despite the emergence of differences between Iranian and Russian interests in Syria, it might be premature or misleading to envision an acrimonious rivalry or divorce. Both Moscow and Tehran back the Syrian government and, as Mardasov notes, “Moscow’s strategy directly depends on the permanent presence of numerous pro-Iranian forces controlling different parts of the front line.” US sanctions legislation may have also dampened Russian President Vladimir Putin’s expectations for engagement with the Donald Trump administration. As we wrote here last month, a new regional realignment including Turkey and Iran “would test Putin, who welcomes and needs a US partnership to stabilize Syria, but whose leverage with Damascus, Tehran and Ankara could be weakened, rather than strengthened, by closer ties with the United States. … If no sanctions relief is forthcoming [from the United States], Putin will have little interest in carrying Trump’s water at the expense of his regional ties. Russia might therefore undertake an outwardly passive and inwardly supportive role that allows the regional parties to take the initiative against the Syrian Kurds or others. Moscow might see that as the winning hand. For the United States, the Russian card should be played carefully, with full appreciation that Tehran, Ankara and Damascus will all have their say.” Iraq launches offensive against IS in Tal Afar Iraqi security forces on Sunday launched combat operations against the Islamic State (IS) in Tal Afar, one of the group's last remaining strongholds in Iraq. "You either surrender or die," Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said to jihadis in a televised speech announcing the offensive about 50 miles west of Mosul. Iraqi government troops and Shiite-dominated Popular Mobilization Units are attacking the city from the south while Kurdish peshmerga fighters move in from the north. The US and Iraqi militaries estimate there are about 2,000 IS fighters in Tal Afar. The Lone ISIS Outposts in Iraq – Tal Afar, Hawija, Anbar
By Zach D. Huff, RealClearDefense: “With the days of Baghdad preparing an “every man for himself” defense against Islamic State far behind, the caliphate’s Mosul capital was retaken last month as the once-dominating terror group is closer than ever to defeat in Iraq." TRUMP SEEKS BROADER MANDATE IN SOUTHWEST ASIA: THE COMMITMENT REVIEW FOR AFGHANISTAN IS RENEWED8/21/2017 Mattis: 'Rigorous' Debate Led to New U.S. Strategy for Afghanistan
From Radio Free Europe: “"I'm very comfortable that the strategic process was sufficiently rigorous, and did not go in with a preset condition in terms of what questions could be asked and what decisions could be made," he said." |
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