Israel is wasting no time in trying to translate Donald Trump’s call for a tougher approach to Iran into action. The government is making a diplomatic push to extend restrictions in the international nuclear deal with Iran to its development of ballistic missiles, sponsorship of terrorist acts and weapons proliferation to terrorist groups, three senior Israeli government officials said. - Bloomberg
WHY THERE IS NO PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST & ISRAELI DISCOVERY OF ROMAN THEATRE NEAR WESTERN WALL10/17/2017 ISRAEL, SYRIA: The F-35 Rumor Mill Regarding Israel's Strike in Syria By Tyler Rogoway, The WarZone: “The day after Israel's counter attack on a Syrian SA-5 surface-to-air missile site we are learning more about the incident, and unfortunately, some questionable outlets and commentators are spreading rumors that imply one of Israel's F-35Is was the aircraft targeted by Syrian missiliers, and that the aircraft was damaged in the attack.” The Israeli air force attacked a Syrian anti-aircraft battery on Monday that Israel said had fired a missile at its planes while they were on a reconnaissance mission over neighboring Lebanon. - Reuters
For Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, Monday morning’s clash between Syrian anti-aircraft missiles and Israeli air power could not have come at a better time, just hours before a scheduled meeting in Israel with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu over what Liberman is calling “the Lebanonization” of Syria. - Defense News Last week, the government of Hamas in Gaza and the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority in the West Bank began reconciliation talks in Cairo, following a week of symbolic cabinet meetings and visits by high-ranking Egyptian officials to the Gaza Strip. - Foreign Affairs Israel is moving ahead with plans for a significant expansion of its settlements in the occupied West Bank, including apartments in the volatile city of Hebron and the first approval of a new settlement in 20 years. - New York Times
THE FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY: COMPILED COMMENTARY
President Donald Trump said Monday that he decertified Iran’s compliance with a landmark nuclear agreement because he is “tired of being taken advantage of,” while also hinting that the U.S. could still fully pull out of the deal. - Politico
Federica Mogherini, the European Union's chief diplomat, will visit Washington in early November to urge U.S. lawmakers not to abandon the nuclear deal with Iran, she announced Monday. - The Hill President Donald Trump's apparent willingness to exit an agreement with Iran could undermine any hope of negotiations with another adversary: North Korea. - CNBC Trump now has an opportunity to prove that his rhetoric on Iran is more than just grandstanding, and that he is serious about confronting what he described as Iranian attempts to sow “conflict, terror and turmoil” across the Middle East. - Foreign Policy On Friday, the United States reached a turning point in its relations with Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump forcefully denounced the Islamic Republic in a highly confrontational speech, threatening to upend the nuclear deal unless Congress amends it to make its terms more restrictive. - Foreign Affairs After weeks of threats and posturing, the Iraqi government carried out a military assault on Monday to curb the independence drive by the nation’s Kurdish minority, wresting oil fields and a contested city from separatists pushing to break away from Iraq. - New York Times
The U.S. sought to stay on the sidelines as an all-out battle broke out between two of its closest ground partners in the campaign against Islamic State and raised concerns about a broader civil conflict erupting in Iraq. - Wall Street Journal Turkey said on Monday it would close its air space to Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region and work to hand control of the main border crossing into the region to the central Iraqi government. - Reuters The U.S. may consider halting its massive train-and-equip program for Iraqi forces if the Iraqi military continues its offensive against Iraqi Kurds in northern Iraq, a defense official said Monday. - Defense News Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani has arrived in Iraq’s Kurdistan region for talks about the escalating crisis between the Kurdish authorities and the Iraqi government following the Kurdish independence referendum, a Kurdish official said on Sunday. - Reuters An Iraqi Yazidi group affiliated with a Shi‘ite-led armed faction took control on Tuesday of Sinjar, said residents of the northwestern city that is claimed by both Kurdish and central Iraqi authorities. - Reuters Iraqi forces took control on Tuesday of the Bai Hasan and Avana oil fields northwest of Kirkuk, after Kurdish Peshmerga fighters pulled out from the region, security sources said. - Reuters SOURCE: AL-MONITOR Iranian Popular Mobilization Units may determine Kirkuk outcome
On Oct. 13, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis conveyed a message via reporters that Iraqi parties should “stay focused on defeating ISIS,” or the Islamic State (IS). The next day, as forces massed near Kirkuk, Iraq, Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force, paid his respects at the tomb of former Iraqi President Jalal Talabani in Sulaimaniyah. The contrast might be illustrative of what to expect in coming days. Despite long-standing US political and military ties with both Baghdad and Erbil, it is Tehran, not Washington, that seems best placed to determine the course of events, as we wrote in this columntwo weeks ago. Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), which recently liberated the city of Hawija from IS, as Shelly Kittleson reports, have lined up in support of Iraqi government forces around key military and oil installations outside Kirkuk, which is defended by Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga units. Iraq Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has been able to play both statesman and nationalist by opposing the Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s independence referendum and seeking a negotiated solution to the crisis. His endgame includes re-establishing Iraqi government control of areas of Kirkuk lost to IS in 2014 and subsequently seized by Iraqi Kurdish forces. Abadi would prefer a victory without bloodshed, given Iraq’s fragile polity. The precedent of the Iraqi referendum could spur Basra and some Iraqi Sunni communities to seek autonomy as well, as Adnan Abu Zeed reports. But there may now be an escalatory dynamic, and Abadi is one of several players, with Iran holding the balance. The crisis over the referendum has given new charge to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which has strong ties to Iran. At Talabani’s funeral, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sat one seat away from Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani; the United States was represented by its ambassador in Iraq. Perhaps it is no surprise that Soleimani is in PUK territory, as Iran-backed militias are opposite peshmerga fighters on the Kirkuk front. The PUK had been skeptical of the independence referendum, which was driven by the Barzani-led Kurdistan Democratic Party. The PUK, including the late president's son Bafel Talabani, has taken the lead in calling for a negotiated solution to the crisis and for holding talks with Iraqi President Fuad Masum, who is also a Kurd, in Sulamaniyah, the party’s home base in the region. There is also the role of Iraqi Turkmens, who number about 3 million (about 8.3% of Iraq’s population) and are concentrated mostly in Kirkuk and surrounding regions. Turkmen parties opposed the independence referendum and have been able to “establish armed factions within the [PMU] in mixed areas such as Tuz Khormato and al-Bashir,” writes Hamdi Malik. “Shiite forces such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq backed the Turkmen PMU factions to pressure the Kurds in these areas. … The Turkmens hope the liberation of Hawija and adjacent areas as well as pressure from the federal forces will ultimately weaken the Kurds in these areas.” Turkey looks to Syrian tribes for support Turkey deployed special forces, commandos and Free Syrian Army (FSA) units into Idlib, which is mostly controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the al-Qaeda-linked armed group, in accord with a de-escalation agreement with Russia and Iran. The Syrian government criticized the incursion. Khaled al-Khateb reports from Aleppo, “Although Turkey controls the FSA factions in the liberated areas, it still needs the allegiance of the tribes spread across the areas they hold. Organizing the tribes into a council makes it easier for Turkey to control them. Hence, the new council's formation is a boon for Turkey.” “The tribes constitute a strong suit in the civil war, so all the parties involved want to win them over,” Khateb adds. “Turkey is trying to take advantage of the role the tribes play in the liberated areas while also preventing the regime of President Bashar al-Assad or the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) from enrolling them as allies. Tribes are particularly prominent in northern and eastern Syria, where they have a lot of social clout. The SDF has relied on several tribes in the Aleppo and Raqqa countrysides in its fight against [IS]. Some tribes have also fought with the regime in Aleppo's eastern countryside. The establishment of the new tribal council in the liberated areas is a step aimed at getting the tribes to ally with Turkey.” DeMistura seeks to build on de-escalation zones Syrians are suffering unacceptable levels of violence, and civilian casualties have spiked recently as a result of what may be the final or near final battles against IS in Raqqa and Deir Ez-Zor. A report from the UN secretary-general to the Security Council last month notes that “ongoing clashes, in particular military operations targeting strongholds of [IS], continued to result in the injury, death and displacement of the civilian population and the destruction of civilian infrastructure” and contains a plea “for the parties to the conflict, in particular the Syrian Government, to release detainees, abductees and missing persons.” The spike in civilian casualties may have obscured another trend in the report, which acknowledges “the persistent and determined efforts to reduce violence through de-escalation agreements, which have delivered observable results in reducing hostilities by all parties to the conflict.” The report points out that there are nearly a million fewer people living in besieged or hard-to-reach locations in Syria, a total of 3.47 million, down from 4.44 million, “as a result of increased access in the northeast of the country.” The UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported in June that 440,000 internally displaced Syrians and over 30,000 refugees had returned to their homes in the first six months of 2017. It is a good bet that those numbers are increasing. Although the situation is fragile, we can say at this point that the de-escalation zones have exceeded most expectations and may offer the best chance in years for a renewed political process. That is certainly the plan of UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura, who told the Security Council on Sept. 27 that “de-escalation should be a precursor to a truly nationwide cease-fire, and to action on the humanitarian and confidence-building fronts … [and to] laying the basis for a renewed Geneva process — one that moves from preparatory talks into genuine negotiations on the political future of Syria.” De Mistura is banking on a Saudi initiative, a "Riyadh 2" conference in Geneva, to unify and impart “realism” into the opposition platform prior to a new round of Geneva talks to commence in October or November. Signs of realism may be evident among Syria’s Kurdish leaders. Gen. Mazlum Kobane, the chief commander of the SDF and leader of its military campaign in Raqqa, told Amberin Zaman in September that he considers the Syrian government a “threat to us at present," but added that "one has to come to terms with the current regime. The Syrian regime is a reality. Militarily, the regime has won a victory against the opposition — the opposition other than us, I mean — at least in the areas it is currently present. And looking at things objectively, the regime is here to stay." He also said, "Our essential objective is to negotiate with the central government and get a certain status for the areas we liberated. If required, we are ready to engage in dialogue with the central government on this.”
Fatah and Hamas reach unity deal
Rival Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas reached a reconciliation agreement on Thursday, putting them on track to end a decade-long split. Under the Egyptian-mediated deal, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is set to resume full control over the Gaza Strip by December 1, and legislative, presidential and Palestinian National Council elections are to be held within a year. Hamas and Fatah must form an interim government ahead of the elections. After the announcement, thousands of Gazans celebrated the promised end of sanctions imposed by PA President Mahmoud Abbas to rein in Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately denounced the agreement, posting on his Facebook page, “Reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas makes peace [with Israel] much harder to achieve.” Israel in particular objects to any agreement that does not require Hamas to dismantle its armed wing and recognize Israel's right to exist Russian arms deals: Saudi Arabia’s agreement to purchase the S-400 Triumf missile system is a major blow to the US and its European allies, Stephen Bryenwrites. The deal follows Turkey’s $2.5 billion agreement to buy the S-400, and ongoing negotiations with Egypt for the S-400, which is considered a real game changer because it can fire multiple intercept missiles. The S-400 also has capability against ballistic missiles, a feature that surely attracted Saudi Arabia’s interest. The Russians have made a significant breakthrough with sales of weapons to some Nato countries with uncertain futures in the bloc (e.g. Greece, Turkey) and strong US client countries such as the UAE. One immediate new example: Russia says the UAE is just months away from buying the formidable Su-35 multirole fighter jet, the current queen of the Russian Air Force fighter fleet. READ THE STORY HERE Ending America's Paralyzed Iran Policy // Jonathan Schanzer Decertifying the nuclear deal without walking away gives the Trump administration an opening to confront the Islamic Republic's foreign meddling.
Kurds brace for attack by Baghdad
Kurdish peshmerga forces blocked roads from Iraqi Kurdistan to the country's second city Mosul today in response to Iraqi troop movements, the AFP reports. The move comes after the Kurdistan Regional Government's Security Council said Wednesday that the Iraqi army, backed by Shiite militias and federal police, is preparing to attack the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and other parts of Iraqi Kurdistan following last month's independence referendum. Kurdish forces have started building berms between their region and the city of Mosul, where a large number of Iraqi joint forces are positioned. The office of Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, however, has denied that Baghdad has a plan to attack the Kurdistan region. Adding to the tensions, the Iraqi Judicial Council announced Wednesday that arrest warrants have been issued against the members of the Kurdish commission that organized the independence referendum. Afghanistan security strategy: Former president Hamid Karzai is confident that Afghans and regional stakeholders support his crusade against the “American agenda” in his war-torn country, which he describes as an attempt to create disharmony among nations in the region, such as India, Pakistan, Iran and China, Ruchi Kumar writes. He has strongly condemned the new Afghan strategy put forth by US President Donald Trump in late August. “If they genuinely want to fight extremism and terrorism, they cannot do it by creating rivalry here in this region. They cannot take one ally and create rivalries — that’s adding to the conflicts in Afghanistan,” he said, referring to Trump’s statement calling out Pakistan for harboring insurgents, while encouraging India to play a bigger role in Afghanistan. READ THE STORY HERE
Pakistani political turmoil: A report, purportedly delivered by the Intelligence Bureau to the Secretariat of the Prime Minister sometime in July, has plunged the troubled Pakistan Muslim League (N) government deeper into crisis, FM Shakilwrites. The civilian spy agency’s report links dozens of treasury members with proscribed militant outfits and banned sectarian groups, delivering a further political jolt to the government following the disqualification of its figurehead, Nawaz Sharif, as prime minister on July 28. In response, a group of 37 members of the national assembly – including federal ministers – staged a walkout from parliament last week. The treasury lawmakers implicated were furious when a TV news channel leaked the report, which was allegedly submitted by the IB at the behest of Nawaz when he was still in office. READ THE STORY HERE
Hezbollah Calls the Shots in Iran’s Syria Policy | Tony Badran and Amir Toumaj, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies
Hezbollah is often described as an “ally” or “partner” of Iran, language which reflects the view of Hezbollah as primarily a Lebanese actor, pursuing a separate agenda and strategy. But new evidence shows that Hezbollah – like the IRGC-Quds Force – is an integral component of the Islamic Republic’s command structure. |
Archives
March 2024
Categories |