“A Time for Choosing”: Urgent Action or Continuing Folly
By Keith B. Payne, National Institute for Public Policy: “Washington’s global system of alliances is facing extremely tough internal and external problems. These problems are neither fleeting nor prosaic; they are now structural and will require significant efforts to ameliorate.”
Managing a Managed Decline: The Future of Indian-Russian Relations by Chietigj Bajpaee
Africa’s Coup Calamity: What Happened to Deterrence? by Claude Lambert
Extensive debates have emerged concerning the delicate balance between promoting democracy and addressing security concerns in West Africa and the Sahel. The occurrence of nine coups within a three-year period underscores the inadequacy of current efforts.
Red Sea Shocks and the New More Stable Normal
by Gregory Bew The geopolitics of energy have undergone a transformation, call it “the great de-risking,” brought on by progressive geopolitical shocks and shifts in the sources of supply over the last decade. The United States and Afghanistan Before the Soviet Invasion with Aaron O’Connell and Robert Rakove In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Aaron O’Connell sat down with Rob Rakove to discuss Rakove’s new book, Days of Opportunity: The United States and Afghanistan Before the Soviet Invasion. Measuring Success in Yemen with Thomas Juneau On Thursday, a Houthi missile struck a commercial ship in the Gulf of Aden, while another was intercepted en route to the Israeli port of Eilat. Rewind and Reconnoiter: Helping India Replace Russia in the Value Arms Market with Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach Vasabjit and Benjamin reflect on their 2022 piece "Helping India Replace Russia in the Value Arms Market" and whether their recommendations have been taken up.
How Was Israel Caught Off-Guard?
by Ariel Levite The surprise of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks can be attributed to abundant noise, deception, wishful thinking, groupthink, and failure of imagination. Nevertheless, careful analysis of the case at hand further highlights several additional factors.
The Lessons of History with Alex Burns, Joseph Stieb, and Nicholas Danforth
Nick sat down with Joseph and Alex to discuss their recent pieces, "Learning Lessons from the Prussian Past?" and "History Has No Lessons For You: A Warning for Policymakers."
Rewind and Reconnoiter: Defense Industrial Innovation
with Stephen Rodriguez In light of the National Defense Industrial Strategy released in January, we asked Stephen Rodriguez to look back on his 2022 article, “The U.S. Military's Investment Ecosystem is Missing in Action."
Beating the Ossification Trap: Why Reform, Not Spending, Will Salvage American Power
by Michael J. Mazarr The crisis in defense strategy, much like the crisis in medicine or higher education, can be traced at least in significant part to the effects of the Ossification Trap.
Debating the New National Defense Industrial Strategy with Zack Cooper, Melanie Marlowe, and Christopher Preble
Chris, Zack, and Melanie sat down to talk about the new National Defense Industrial Strategy.
Uncrewed Systems and the Transformation of U.S. Warfighting Capacity
by Mick Ryan and Clint Hinote Uncrewed systems impose asymmetric costs when used offensively, which drives a requirement for cost-effective defense. In isolation, this development is disruptive. What is transformational is the combination of uncrewed systems, digitized command and control, and new-era meshed networks of civilian and military sensors.
American Achilles in the War on Terror
By John Waters, RealClearDefense: “Those who have seen war or studied it know how combat produces a cycle of loss and compensation, and fate deals out the portions of life in unfair and unexpected ways.” TWO WARS AND GROWING COMMITMENTS ABROAD, WHAT A STRATEGY OF DENIAL TEACHES US ABOUT WAR WITH CHINA10/30/2023 The Rise of China and the Permanence of Change
By Siamak Tundra Naficy, RealClearDefense: “In the midst of concerns regarding the debacle in Russia, it is important to recognize what still looks to be predominantly an Asian century.”
How Land And Sea Powers Look At The Map
by Jakub Grygiel via The National Bureau Of Asian Research Each state, or to be more precise, each leader, has a mental map of the surrounding world. Such maps are drawn by history, culture, religion, and of course geographic knowledge, and they inform the strategic posture of the state: how one sees the world shapes how one acts in it.
Chris Ford On How The US Can Reduce Vulnerabilities In Semiconductor Supply Chains
interview with Christopher Ford via Hoover Daily Report In this interview with Kharis Templeman, Chris Ford makes the case for why the US needs an "insurance policy" to reduce dependencies and strengthen semiconductor supply chains. He outlines ideas like tax incentives, training workers, gathering supply chain data, and strategic stockpiling of chips.
Government Shutdown: A Blunt Look at Defense Impacts
Elaine McCusker | AEIdeas As Congress struggles to pass annual appropriations, the focus on political blame rather than national security consequences continues to dominate the rhetoric in Washington. Elaine McCusker shows how a shutdown may affect national security, military personnel, civilian personnel, and the defense contractor workforce, industrial base, and supply chain. The impacts of a government shutdown on the nation’s security will be immediate, long-term, and unrecoverable. Time and money lost during the shutdown are gone for good. America’s defenders are likely to experience shutdown impacts in three basic ways: pay, work and training disruptions, and instability for their families. Billions would be lost in productivity as the Pentagon’s civilian workforce is furloughed. Lastly, defense contractors will not receive back pay for missed income during the shutdown. Learn more here. >>
Transforming How the Army Fights in the Future, with Gen. James Rainey and Lt. Gen. Laura Potter
Aaron sat down with Gen. James Rainey and Lt. Gen. Laura Potter to discuss the article, "Delivering the Army of 2030," which was published on August 6.
Goldwater Ripples: How Defense Reform Made the Fighting Force More Diplomatic, by George Greanias
To understand the accumulation of individual practices and changes that have undergirded America’s contemporary approach to global engagement, it might be more useful to consider the recent history of U.S. “defense diplomacy.”
"It’s time for a policy change on the northern border," Jacob Nagel, Israel Hayom
Will China Embrace Nuclear Brinkmanship As It Reaches Nuclear Parity?
By Michael Tkacik, The Diplomat: “In the future, China may incorporate nuclear weapons into its framework of political threats, intimidation, and even the use of force to achieve its international goals."
Bring on the Counterrevolution
Conservatives need a national agenda that reclaims American institutions from the Left. A blueprint exists, from a surprising source. / Read here
Stephen Blank writes: The latest coup clarifies Russia’s instruments of power, tactics and goals for nations in Africa, if not, other developing states in other regions. It also may explain why Putin did not disband Wagner after the June mutiny, because of its centrality to Russia’s global strategy. Clearly the West, despite its superior aggregate power in all dimensions, still lacks any idea of how to coordinate them on behalf of a comprehensive strategy. Nor does it yet fully appreciate the rising importance of African countries to the global contest now underway. While it is not too late to forge such a strategy, if we want to help African states prosper, improve their conditions and reduce the likelihood of new conflicts, the time to begin doing so is now. – The Hill
Arms Control in the Emerging Deterrence Context
By Keith B. Payne & David J. Trachtenberg, National Institute for Public Policy: “Colin S. Gray frequently remarked that arms control works best when least needed, i.e., arms control works best when the parties involved do not have inimical political goals that create hostilities between them and there are few pressures for competitive armament."
China’s Technology Strategy: Leverage Before Growth
Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors | American Enterprise Institute The US has done little to blunt Chinese predation, indirectly supporting it with money and technology. If the most innovative American companies lose intellectual property and market share without consequence, China will control more sectors of the global economy. Full Story XI: THE PARTY FOR WAR & DISNEY DEFEATED IN U.S. CULTURE WAR; HOW REBUILDING NIGERIA MATTERS7/7/2023
When Wars Are Fought in Cities, Nobody Wins
By David Tuck, The Strategist (ASPI): “‘Cities simply aren’t designed to withstand conflict,’"
A Surplus of Strategists—But a Lack of Good Strategy
By Josh Kerbel & Jake Sotiriadis, The National Interest: "What does the U.S. government have to show for millions spent on strategic education?" What Should a Strategist Know and Do, and Why By Adam Matei, Kira Graves & David Benson, Military Strategy Magazine: "For some, strategy is a definite course of action; for others, a bag of tricks."
America and the Idea of Eurasia
By Seth Cropsey, RealClearDefense: "Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are inextricably linked. Any American attempt to separate them strategically will fail." The Most Important Event of Modern Post-World War II History By Francis P. Sempa, The American Spectator: "We are still paying the price for the loss of China to Mao’s communists."
Two Supreme Court cases this term highlight a confusion between commutative and distributive justice.
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