In the battle against Islamic State, the U.S. and Iran have become de facto allies in Iraq, a convergence of interests that permitted both nations to tacitly cooperate and avoid open conflicts. Once Islamic State is defeated, however, Washington’s and Tehran’s interests are likely to diverge, especially if President Donald Trump makes good on his pledge to aggressively contain Iranian power in the region. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
The U.S. military has drawn up early plans that would deploy up to 1,000 more troops into northern Syria in the coming weeks, expanding the American presence in the country ahead of the offensive on the Islamic State’s de facto capital of Raqqa, according to U.S. defense officials familiar with the matter. – Washington Post's Checkpoint
The United States is preparing to retake the Islamic State stronghold in Raqqa, Syria, without the participation of Turkey, a NATO ally, and a key partner in the counter-Islamic State fight. While the U.S. is not ruling out a future role for Turkey, discussions with Ankara have continued for months without producing any agreement that would include Turkish forces in the coming offensive. – Washington Examiner The estimated 400 U.S. Marines sent into Syria earlier this month to set up a firebase near Raqqa have yet to fire their M777 .155mm howitzers in support of Syrian Democratic Forces closing on the self-proclaimed capital of the Islamic State, a coalition spokesman said Wednesday. – Military.com Criminal investigators say they have built a case documenting the widespread torture and murder of Syrian detainees by the Assad government, relying on official photos and meticulous documents. - Reuters US, India, Iran: Delhi has signed an agreement with Kabul and Tehran to expand the Iranian port of Chabahar so it can establish a gateway to Afghanistan’s vast mineral resources, create a suitable facility to handle higher-volume Iranian natural gas exports to India and, possibly, “checkmate” the Chinese. However, reports Peter J. Brown, the project now seems at odds with US President Donald Trump posturing over Iran. Or does it
Josh Rogin reports: President Trump’s new deal with Saudi Arabia is really good — for the Saudis. After publicly bashing the kingdom for years, Trump completely reversed course Tuesday and rolled out the red carpet for the Saudi royals. He gave them a huge publicity boost and a highly sought-after U.S. commitment to improve and elevate bilateral relations. And what did Trump get in return? Not much at all. – Washington Post
Bill Gertz reports: Iranian-backed Houthi rebels working to take power in Yemen are using a new weapon that is raising fears of seaborne attacks on both military and commercial shipping in the region. The weapon is an Iranian-designed remotely piloted small boat filled with explosives, a defense official told Inside the Ring. – Washington Times’ Inside the Ring Narendra Modi, son of a humble Gujarati tea-seller, now fills the space in the public imagination once held by the dynasty whose founder Jawaharlal Nehru led India for 17 years after the end of British rule. – Financial Times
Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Tuesday ordered that "blasphemous" content on social media websites be removed or blocked and those posting such material "strictly punished." - Reuters Fast-growing Pakistan, estimated to be the sixth-largest country by population, kicked off its first national census in 19 years on Wednesday, a delay caused by a lack of funds, political squabbling and too few available troops to oversee security. - Reuters The closure of the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is more than inconvenient; it is costly. Officials on both sides of the border say in just one month, the closure has resulted in hundreds of thousands of dollars in lost trade, and tons of perishable goods have rotted in stranded trucks. – Associated Press General John Allen, USMC (Ret.) and Michael O’Hanlon write: So yes, it is probably logical that along with other initiatives, U.S. troop numbers and costs in Afghanistan should increase by one-third to one-half. And yes, casualties could rise somewhat too. But the deployment would still be quite modest compared with its earlier phases—and the added capabilities could well spell the difference between stalemate and a gradual trend toward something resembling victory. – Brookings Institution
Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War began an intensive multi-month exercise in November 2015 to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Syria.
Today, we are pleased to release our proposal for the first phase of a series of multiphase campaigns that the U.S. should lead in Syria. The objective of this course of action is to build a new Syrian Sunni Arab partner by, with, and through which to conduct a population-centric counterinsurgency to destroy ISIS and al Qaeda, set conditions to prevent their reconstitution, and eventually resettle refugees. The first phase should prioritize seizing and securing a base of operations in southeastern Syria in order to create a de facto safe zone in the region. Success will depend on U.S. forces fighting alongside, recruiting, and training local Sunni Arab forces to conduct an immediate offensive against ISIS and future operations against al Qaeda. Subsequent phases will require establishing a no-fly zone in southern Syria and pressuring the Assad Regime and its backers to concede to a negotiated settlement acceptable to all of Syria’s population groups. This course of action is the first step in the initial campaign to achieve our overarching aims. It is a limited counteroffensive designed to regain American freedom of action and set conditions for halting and then reversing our current steady movement toward defeat.
Russian Foreign Policy Architecture in Syria:
Contain, Degrade, and Defeat - A Defense Strategy for A Troubled Middle East
From Eric Edelman & Whitney M. McNamara, CSBA: “The decade and a half the United States has spent fighting the “long war” in the Middle East has yielded many tactical successes but left a lasting victory elusive. The inconclusive nature of these struggles has sapped support for the U.S. policy of shouldering the burden of providing security and stability in the region. Although many believed U.S. involvement in the region resulted in more violence, disorder, and radicalization of local Arab populations, the current situation in the Middle East illustrates that inaction has been highly destabilizing. The United States must contend with two intertwined challenges in the region: Iranian aspirations for mastery in the Middle East and the Muslim world and often related violent jihadist terrorism. Both threaten the security of the broader Middle East and the U.S. homeland.”
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula demonstrates Al Qaeda supremacy. @thomasjoscelyn @followfdd
The Iranian-backed Houthi offensive has significantly undermined U.S. counterterrorism efforts. Governance in Yemen has been a longstanding problem. But the Houthi offensive in late 2014 knocked President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi from power at a time when the U.S. was counting on his government to act as a vital counterterrorism partner. There is a debate over how close the Houthis and Iran really are. Some have argued that the Houthis should not be thought of as an Iranian terror proxy, such as Hezbollah. While this accurate – the Houthis have their own culture and traditions – there is no question that Iran and the Houthis are allies. And it is in Iran’s interest to work with the Houthis against Saudi-backed forces in Yemen, while also encouraging Houthi incursions into the Saudi kingdom. The U.S. government has long recognized Iran as one of the Houthis’ two key backers. (The other being former President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his network, which is discussed below.) In its Country Reports on Terrorism 2012, the State Department noted: Iran actively supported members of the Houthi tribe in northern Yemen, including activities intended to build military capabilities, which could pose a greater threat to security and stability in Yemen and the surrounding region. In July 2012, the Yemeni Interior Ministry arrested members of an alleged Iranian spy ring, headed by a former member of the IRGC. That warning proved to be accurate, as the Houthis made significant gains just over two years later. The U.S. and its allies have intercepted multiple Iranian arms shipments reportedly intended for the Houthis. And senior U.S. officials have repeatedly referenced Iran’s ongoing assistance. Late last year, Reuters reported that “Iran has stepped up weapons transfers to the Houthis,” including “missiles and small arms.” In September 2015, then-Secretary of Defense Ash Carter listed America’s “core interests in the region.” Among them, according to Carter, was “supporting Saudi Arabia in protecting its territory and people from Houthi attacks, and supporting international efforts to prevent Iranian shipments of lethal equipment from reaching Houthi and Saleh-affiliated forces in Yemen.” The Houthis have responded by launching missiles at American ships, as well as ships operated by other countries….” http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/03/resolving-the-conflict-in-yemen-u-s-interests-risks-and-policy.php Sisi’s crackdown on the opposition far exceeds the darkest period of repression during the Mubarak era. Human rights groups claim that as many as 60,000 political prisoners now languish in Egypt’s jails. (At the end of Mubarak’s rule, the figure was between 5,000 and 10,000.) Egypt’s prisons are filled to triple their capacity, and the regime has built 16 more prisons to handle the overflow. Once described by Amnesty International as “Generation Protest,” the youths who took to the streets in Egypt to bring down a dictator in 2011 have acquired a grim new nickname: “Generation Jail.” – NYT Magazine
The U.S. military's "reassurance and deterrence" mission in the Syrian city of Manbij is achieving its goal of preventing key American allies from battling one another, the Pentagon said Monday, but what's already a tense situation could become more complicated with the arrival of Russian troops and continued advances by Turkish-backed rebels. – Military Times Russia will start construction on a planned five-year expansion of its naval base in Syria this spring, officials said in Russian state media. – USNI News
Mass graves are all too familiar in Iraq. Even before the rise of Islamic State, Iraqi authorities struggled to cope with the task of excavating mass burials from the reign of Saddam Hussein, when up to a million Iraqis disappeared. But recent discoveries underscore the savagery of Islamic State. – Los Angeles Times The remains of hundreds of mainly Shi'ite inmates killed by Islamic State militants when they overran a prison in northern Iraq more than two years ago have been unearthed by forces retaking the area from the group, a spokesman said. - Reuters Katherine Dixon writes: Defeating violent extremism does not rest solely on the ability of the Iraqi army to retake Mosul neighborhoods, but whether governments throughout the region can regain the trust of their peoples and repair their fragile institutions. – Defense One
A double bombing near Shiite shrines often visited by foreign pilgrims in Damascus, Syria, killed at least 40 people on Saturday, shattering the capital’s efforts to isolate itself from the war raging elsewhere in the country. Many of the dead were from neighboring Iraq. – New York Times
IRAN, MIDDLE EAST: IRGC-Controlled Iraqi Militia Forms "Golan Liberation Brigade"
From Amir Toumaj, FDD's The Long War Journal: “The Iranian-controlled Iraqi militia Harakat al Nujaba this week announced the formation of its “Golan Liberation Brigade.” While it is not uncommon for entities to name themselves after areas they aim to “liberate,” the militia’s spokesman has said that the unit could assist the Syrian regime in taking the Golan Heights, a region in the Levant that has been controlled by Israel since the 1967 Six-Day War.”
FPI Senior Policy Analyst Tzvi Kahn writes: Trump should counter Iran’s misbehavior by designating the IRGC, which manages the regime’s ballistic missile program, exports terrorism overseas, and spearheads much of the regime’s naval aggression, as a terrorist organization. Such a move would lay the groundwork for further sanctions against the organization, which controls as much as 20 to 30 percent of Iran’s economy. The White House should also make clear that further Iranian harassment of U.S. naval forces in the Gulf risks triggering a military response against the offending vessels. – Foreign Policy Initiative
The Iranian-backed terror group Hezbollah currently has advanced missiles capable of hitting Israel's nuclear reactor, according to Hassan Nasrallah, the terror group's leader, who boasted in a recent interview that the terror group is prepared to strike the reactor and cause nuclear havoc across the Middle East. - Washington Free Beacon
Iran threatens Israel & US: What is to be done? Yossi Kupperwasser, Jerusalen Center for Public Affairs. Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday there could never be peace in Syria as long as there was an Iranian presence there. "We discussed at length the matter of Iran, its objectives and intentions in Syria, and I clarified that there cannot be a peace deal in Syria when Iran is there and declares its intention to destroy Israel," Netanyahu said in footage supplied by his office after their meeting. Iran, Israel's arch-enemy, has been embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's staunchest backer and has provided militia fighters to help him in the country's civil war. "(Iran) is arming itself and its forces against Israel including from Syria territory and is, in fact, gaining a foothold to continue the fight against Israel," he said in reply to a reporter's question. "There cannot be peace when they continue the war and therefore they have to be removed." Russia, also Assad's ally, is seen as holding the balance of power in achieving a deal on Syria's future. In Geneva last week, the first U.N.-led Syria peace talks in a year ended without a breakthrough. [nL5N1GG2NL] Israeli leaders have pointed to Tehran's steadily increasing influence in the region during the six-year-old Syrian conflict, whether via its own Revolutionary Guard forces or Shi'ite Muslim proxies, especially Hezbollah. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-israel-russia-idUKKBN16G2WE _____ A U.S. Navy ship changed course toward Iranian Revolutionary Guard vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, a guard commander was quoted as saying on Wednesday while issuing a warning. A U.S. official told Reuters on Monday that multiple fast-attack vessels from the Revolutionary Guard had come within 600 yards (550 meters) of the USNS Invincible, a tracking ship, forcing it to change direction. But guard commander Mehdi Hashemi said the incident, the first of note between the countries' navies in those waters since January, was the fault of the U.S. ship, telling the Fars news agency: "The unprofessional actions of the Americans can have irreversible consequences," Years of mutual animosity eased when Washington lifted sanctions on Tehran last year after a deal to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. But major differences remain over Iran's ballistic missile program and conflicts in Syria and Iraq. Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, without referring to the Hormuz incident, also gave a warning on Wednesday. "If Iran's ignorant enemies think about invading Iran they should know that our armed forces are much stronger than 1980 when Iraq attacked," he said in a speech broadcast live on state TV. While still a U.S. presidential candidate in September, Donald Trump vowed that any Iranian vessels that harassed the U.S. Navy in the Gulf would be "shot out of the water." http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-navy-idUSKBN16F0VP • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-03-08/as-trump-makes-threats-iran-makes-friends • http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-navy-idUSKBN16F0VP • http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/dubowitz-mark-labeling-irans-revolutionary-guard/ • http://www.pmo.gov.il/English/MediaCenter/Spokesman/Pages/spokestart050317.aspx |
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