Pakistani officials have threatened to use the country’s nuclear weapons should India invade, after India’s new army chief admitted to secret military plans for attacking its neighbour in the event of a crisis. – Financial Times
India is growing closer as a partner in keeping seas free to navigation at a time of mounting tensions over territorial rights in Asia, the United States Pacific commander said this week in New Delhi. – Stars and Stripes India is likely to revisit the Cold Start doctrine, which foresees short, intense and quick wars with neighboring Pakistan and China against the backdrop of terrorism and nuclear threats. – Defense Four days into his term, tucked into a sofa 150 miles outside the country he was elected to rule, President Adama Barrow of Gambia pledged on Sunday to improve his country’s economy, free its political prisoners and create a commission to look into the brutal legacy of his predecessor. – New York Times
Representatives of Libya’s neighbors meeting in Cairo on Saturday warned the North African nation’s main rival factions against seeking to settle their differences through military force, as Egypt announced that efforts were underway to bring their leaders together to chart a “joint vision” for the country. – Associated Press
From Non-proliferation to Strategic Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age
From Paul Bracken, Second Line of Defense: “The most interesting thing about the second nuclear age is that it actually came about. It wasn’t supposed to happen, at least according to most political science theory. What was supposed to happen after the cold war was a reinvigorated global nuclear nonproliferation regime, which along with U.S. leadership and muscular counter-proliferation policies, that would prevent a second nuclear age from developing.” RUSSIA CANNOT AFFORD TO FIGHT
RUSSIA, SYRIA: Russia Wants Out Of Syria Because It Can’t Afford To Fight From Russ Read, The Daily Caller: “Russia recently helped facilitate the surrender of Aleppo to its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but its motives may be financial, as opposed to virtuous. Russia’s intervention in Syria is estimated to cost approximately $4 million per day, according to data collected by IHS Jane’s. Russian military forces began bombing Syrian targets around Sept. 30. Since the beginning of its relentless bombing campaign, Russia spent approximately $1.84 billion.” Russia, Military Modernisation and Lowering the Nuclear Threshold From Malcolm Davis, The Strategist (ASPI): “Russia faces real challenges in sustaining its military modernisation efforts, given low oil prices, Western sanctions and the cost of operations in Ukraine and Syria. Despite that, Moscow looks set to continue the program. At its heart is nuclear weapons modernisation. Russia’s most recent military doctrine, released in 2014, continues to emphasise the primacy of nuclear weapons in Russian defence policy.” Russia’s Imperial Instinct
From Carl Bildt, The Strategist (ASPI) and Project Syndicate: "Russia is once again at the center of policy debates in many Western capitals. And for the third time in a row, a new US president will start his administration with ambitions to improve bilateral relations. To understand why achieving this goal has been so difficult, it helps to take a longer historical view of the Russian state. It is now a quarter-century since the Soviet Union disintegrated; and 2017 will mark the centennial of the Russian Revolution, which toppled the teetering, centuries-old czarist empire. As it happens, there are telling similarities between the periods that followed each of these imperial denouements." West Africa
Islamist militant group Boko Haram has said it was behind Monday's twin suicide bombing at a university in north eastern Nigeria which killed two people. - Reuters Ivory Coast's government has begun paying bonuses to soldiers who staged a two-day mutiny earlier this month, leaders of the revolt said on Tuesday, in a move aimed at quelling unrest that could undermine the country's post-war success story. - Reuters Nigerian and other West African countries are preparing a joint force to intervene militarily in Gambia if President Yahya Jammeh does not hand over power, a Nigerian military source said on Tuesday. - Reuters Jeffrey Smith writes: The potential consequences of allowing Yahya Jammeh to cling to power in Gambia in defiance of his country’s own constitution, and the will of the Gambian people, are severe. Giving him a pass would show other would-be autocrats that they can steal an election and dash the aspirations of an entire population without consequence. If these anti-democratic tendencies are left to fester, they will encourage instability, potential bloodshed and the violation of human rights elsewhere on the continent. – Washington Post East Africa After nearly half a century of civil war, a jihadist insurgency, and tens of billions of dollars of Western aid, Somalia is for the first time attempting something like democracy—and it isn’t looking pretty. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) The United States will ease some financial sanctions against Sudan in recognition of what the Obama administration says are small areas of improvement in fighting terrorism and other U.S. goals, the White House announced Friday. – Washington Post South Sudanese government and opposition soldiers “blatantly ignored” international law during clashes in July that killed hundreds of people, according to a United Nations human rights investigation. – Associated Press France’s ruling Socialist Party narrowed the field of candidates Sunday vying in a primary to succeed its unpopular president, but a former investment banker boycotting the race is already laying claim to its votes. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Marine Le Pen wasted no time in proclaiming 2017 as the year of far-right awakening in Europe. “We are living through the end of one world, and the birth of another,” Ms. Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front party, told a cheering gathering of members of European right-wing parties on Saturday in this Rhine River city to chart a joint path to success in elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany this year. – New York Times This modest, nondescript house of worship, the largest yet to open in the region, has become a symbol of the precarious position occupied by French Muslims, the country’s largest minority, in a society still reeling from terrorist violence and hurtling toward a watershed presidential election. If the mosque is forced to close, it would mean a major aggression by the state against citizens of a particular faith, violating the age-old promise of a proudly secular republic never to discriminate among citizens on the basis of race or religion. – Washington Post A 23-year-old French man whom international authorities allege was a leading recruiter for the Islamic State group has been arrested and given preliminary terrorism charges in France. – Associated Press
U.S., RUSSIA: Arrival of U.S. Troops in Poland Sparks Kremlin's Ire
From Doug Stanglin, USA Today: “Some 3,000 U.S. troops, under a NATO banner, are arriving in Poland and six other Eastern European countries in what a Kremlin spokesman calls a threat to Russia's interest and security. The deployment, which includes more than 80 main battle tanks and hundreds of armored vehicles, is part of NATO's Operation Atlantic Resolve, which was launched in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.” U.S., SOMALIA: U.S. Launches "Self-Defense Strike" During Raid Against Shabaab From Bill Roggio, FDD's The Long War Journal: “U.S. Africa Command announced that it launched an airstrike against Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in Somalia, while U.S. advisors accompanied Somali and African Union forces in a counterterrorism exercise on Jan. 7. AFRICOM described the offensive under the guise of a “self-defense strike,” as it did on nine other occasions in 2016, when it was really another skirmish in a decade-long military operation against Shabaab.” Libya
Russia hosted Libyan warlord Khalifa Hafter aboard the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier looming off Syria's coast, the AP reports. The Russian navy offered Haftar a brief tour of the smokey ship followed by a sit down with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to talk about terrorism issues, according to a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry. Russia has been courting Haftar, with some observers suggesting that Moscow is hoping that Haftar could one day take over the country as a strongman ruler. INDIA, PAKISTAN: In Its Nuclear Race With India, Pakistan Catches Up From Stratfor: “The nuclear race between India and Pakistan is intensifying, thanks in large part to Islamabad's fear that its military is starting to lag behind New Delhi's. Over the past decade, Pakistan has become alarmed by the widening gap between its ability to wage conventional war and India's. Pakistan has turned to its nuclear inventory to level the playing field.” India's equivalent of the United States' Tomahawk Land Attack Missile — the Nirbhay cruise missile — has received an extension of 16 months for further development, despite failing its fourth test. – Defense News
Lisa Curtis writes: Modi’s surprise demonetization was a huge political gamble. Soon we’ll know whether it is likely to pay off. Nearly 700 state assembly seats will be decided in the five upcoming elections, including in Punjab, Manipur and Uttarakhand. If the BJP does relatively well, Modi will have reinforced that he has the political wherewithal to drive change in the world’s largest and most complicated democracy. – The National Interest CHINA: Xi Jinping to Head Civil-Military Integration Body From Goh Sui Noi, Straits Times: “As part of ongoing military reforms, China has set up a central commission to facilitate the sharing of technology and resources between the armed forces and the civilian sector. The new agency, to be headed by President Xi Jinping, will also facilitate the demilitarisation of some of the military's assets, according to regional security expert Li Mingjiang of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.” CHINA: Walk, Don't Run: Chinese Military Reforms in 2017
From Dennis J. Blasko, War on the Rocks: “Over the past year, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) started implementing a series of major changes to its national and theater (regional) levels of command, the “institutions” that plan, command, and sustain joint operations. With no modern combat experience in complex combined arms or joint operations and according to conclusions found in their own self-examinations, the maturation of the PLA's command structure has not kept pace with the new weapons and capabilities that have entered the force over the past two decades. The fundamental factor in building these new headquarters is improving the quality of commanders and staff personnel, a complex process, which as Gen. Dempsey noted, does not happen quickly in any military force.” High-resolution imagery released on Thursday confirms what Moscow-watchers and intelligence analysts have known since March of last year: the deployment of Russian nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in Syria. – Defense News
Henry Nau writes: The three steps recommended here to revitalize an American nationalism of internationalism are not inconsistent with the policy stances adopted by new President-elect Donald Trump. If he gives priority to tax and regulatory reforms (which create jobs), takes interim symbolic but not deeply disruptive steps to slow trade and immigration (which satisfy constituents), and cuts more balanced deals to address terrorism and other security issues first with allies and thereafter with Russia, China, and Iran (which restores measured American leadership), he will right the unique republican ship of state that constitutes an American nationalism of internationalism. – The American Interest
Robert Kaplan writes: Indeed, our geography fiercely argues for a balance: be wary of nation-building, but remember the global responsibilities of a maritime nation. After all, it was only by conquering a great desert that we became a sea power — since without reaching the Pacific Coast we never could have built our 300-ship Navy. And it is that Navy, our primary strategic instrument given that nuclear weapons must never be used, that guards the great sea lines of communication along with access to hydrocarbons for our allies, thus allowing for a semblance of global order in the first place. America, precisely because of its geography, is fated to lead. – New York Times Greg Ip writes: Little unites the new nationalists other than their shared antipathy toward globalism. Mr. Trump’s economic program is as far to the right as Ms. Le Pen’s is to the left. Nor do they have credible plans for replacing the institutions of globalization that they want to tear down, as Britain’s confused exit from the EU demonstrates. But globalists would be wise to face their own shortcomings. They have underestimated the collateral damage that breakneck globalization has inflicted on ordinary workers, placed too much weight on the strategic advantages of trade and dismissed too readily the value that many ordinary citizens still attach to national borders and cultural cohesion. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Mackubin Thomas Owens writes: n sum, The Big Stick is an immensely useful assessment of military power and why it remains necessary. Cohen is especially effective in refuting the arguments against hard power and American hegemony, for as his teacher Samuel Huntington once observed, "The maintenance of U.S. primacy matters for the world as well as for the United States." – The Weekly Standard Brian Stewart writes: In The Big Stick, Eliot Cohen dissents from this reigning consensus. A professor of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University and a former counselor to the State Department, Cohen assigns himself the task of defending American military power — what Theodore Roosevelt called “the big stick” — as the linchpin of international order. The result is a bracing argument that restores this woefully neglected dimension of statecraft to its proper position as “the last argument of kings — or presidents.” – National Review Online Iran is to receive a huge shipment of natural uranium from Russia to compensate it for exporting tons of reactor coolant, diplomats say, in a move approved by the outgoing U.S. administration and other governments seeking to keep Tehran committed to a landmark nuclear pact. – Associated Press Analysis: [Rafsanjani] long served as a balance in the extremes of Iranian political thought, a go-between for reformers who seek outreach to the world and hard-liners who press for confrontation with the West. Without his behind-the-scenes influence advocating pragmatism, some fear that one side may feel free to try to overcome the other - in particular, that hard-liners could take off the gloves against moderates who have made gains in recent years. – Associated Press Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh write: Today Rafsanjani is mourned and his former deputy esteemed by the same men and women as godfathers of their possible salvation. Rafsanjani, blessed with a searing wit and a good sense of history, surely appreciated this delightful irony before his weak heart stopped his brilliant mind from plotting against his many enemies. – Washington Post Gerecht and Ali Alfoneh write: Rafsanjani…was the dark prince, who through stratagem, ruthlessness, and terror rose to the apex of power. Only when equally ruthless men dethroned and marginalized him did he become a proponent of political freedom. – The Weekly Standard Blog Sohrab Ahmari writes: Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was the original Mr. Moderation. Western observers saw the former Iranian president as a sort of Deng Xiaoping in clerical robes: a founder of the Islamic Republic who was destined to transform the country into a normal state. Rafsanjani, they thought, was too corrupt to be an ideologue. Yet Rafsanjani…consistently defied such hopes. His life and legacy remind us that fanaticism and venality aren’t mutually exclusive. It’s a lesson in the persistence of Western fantasies about the Iranian regime. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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