Japan PM Abe Looks to Trump in the Confrontation with the PRC. @gordongchang @thedailybeast @michaelauslin @aei
“…More important, Mr. Abe is now bridging to the Trump administration. He was the first foreign leader to meet Mr. Trump, flying to New York City only a week after the election. He hopes to convince Mr. Trump to remain engaged in the Pacific and to accept that the only way to deal with common challenges is to work more closely together. Economic issues, such as a bilateral trade pact in place of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, will come up at some point. Japan’s role in the Pacific is likely to increase as Mr. Trump finds that America’s traditional allies in Asia are less reliable. South Korea’s new president will probably come from the country’s far left; Australia has bowed out of freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea. Meanwhile, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte remains an unpredictable wild card who is drawing closer to China. Mr. Abe is sure to stress that Japan remains the one partner Mr. Trump can rely on. Such reliance will be needed as Mr. Trump decides how far to challenge China. The president-elect’s phone call with Taiwan’s leader, his hard line on trade, and his linking of economic and security issues presages a rockier period ahead for U.S.-China ties. Mr. Trump may well be asking Japan for more support, such as increased maritime operations in Asia….” http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-smart-politics-behind-abes-visit-to-pearl-harbor-1482795516 Bill Gertz reports: U.S. military intelligence has identified a headquarters for a Chinese military hacking unit — inside two Beijing hotels. According to an open-source intelligence report produced by the Army’s Asian Studies Detachment, “the Headquarters/Jintang and Seasons Hotel appear to be located in the same or at least adjacent buildings, both of which are, according to available information, owned by or connected to the People’s Liberation Army 4th Department.” – Washington Times "Anti-Access/Area Denial: Not As New As You Might Think"
From Christopher Cowan, The Strategist (ASPI): "China is currently attempting to do something very similar with its military modernisation programme. It appears to be creating a bastion for its growing fleet of SSBNs by building artificial islands, developing advanced sea mines, deploying underwater sensors, and investing heavily in improved ASW capabilities. It’s also developing a variety of long range anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) and ASCMs to threaten US forces in the Pacific and limit US access to its littoral region." Turkey has been confronted with a cascade of crises that seem to have only accelerated as the Syrian civil war has spilled across the border. But the events have not pushed Turkey closer to its NATO allies. Conversely, they have drifted further apart as the nation lashes out at Washington and moves closer to Moscow, working with the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, to secure a cease-fire in Syria. – New York Times The man who killed 39 people in an attack on an Istanbul nightclub on New Year's Day is probably an ethnic Uighur and Turkish security services now know where he might be hiding, Deputy Prime Minister Veysi Kaynak said on Thursday. – Reuters The Turkish authorities said on Wednesday that they had identified the fugitive gunman who went on a deadly rampage at an upscale Istanbul nightclub in the early hours of New Year’s Day, although they did not release his name. – New York Times
The gunman who killed 39 people in an Istanbul nightclub on New Year's Day in an attack claimed by Islamic State appears to have been well versed in guerrilla warfare and may have trained in Syria, a newspaper report and a security source said on Tuesday. - Reuters Forces allied to Libya's eastern government carried out an air strike against a military transport aircraft in the central district of Jufra on Tuesday, wounding the head of the military council from the rival city of Misrata, officials said. - Reuters
Eastern Libya's dominant military figure has no plans to resume talks with his U.N.-backed rival in the west, according to comments in an interview that may further dent foreign hopes of an end to years of conflict in the divided country. - Reuters Scott Mastic writes: The Tunisian government is working hard to combat the threat of extremism—not an easy prospect with Libya as its neighbor in the south. In a region where allies are few and far between, Tunisia’s quest for a new partnership with the United States should be reciprocated. Acting now to cement the economic potential of that partnership makes sense for both commercial and political reasons. – World Affairs Journal Editorial: It remains likely that 2017 will see the elimination of the Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate as a territorial entity. But what may be more important to the security of the Middle East as well as the West is whether Turkey and Iraq are further destabilized. That will depend in part on whether the Islamic State can continue to mount devastating terrorist attacks like those of last weekend. The decisive factor, however, will be whether Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Abadi are able to embrace more constructive domestic policies. – Washington Post Bill Gertz writes: Russian information warfare capabilities are among the most advanced of any nation and are built on a foundation of similar operations honed to perfection during the Soviet Union, a period that stretched from 1917 to 1991. American intelligence officials believe the current government unit in charge of Moscow’s information warfare programs is the Federal Security Service, which in the 2010s emerged as the most powerful spy agency in Moscow, eclipsing the civilian SVR foreign spy service and the once-powerful military spy agency known as GRU. – Washington Times
Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Putin remains committed to undermining the West, as he was from the very beginning when he came to power. The West lacks moral and strategic clarity towards Russia, and once again fails to underestimate the damage such lack of vision might cause. - Forbes Behnam Ben Taleblu and Patrick Megahan write: Iranian officials continue to talk a big game about their naval capabilities and desires. But these attempts to deploy force through overt conventional naval means is only a distraction from Tehran’s existing ability to shape the region’s maritime environment through unconventional methods. – The Cipher Brief In the three years since a preliminary nuclear deal was struck with Iran, Tehran has received more than $10 billion in sanctions relief from around the world in the form of cash and gold, according to current and former U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
The history of the frozen money, based on interviews with U.S., Iranian and European officials involved in the negotiations over the decades, shows how it has been a constant sore point between the two countries since the 1979 Iranian revolution. That sore spot finally has been removed, although in keeping with the four-decade pattern, it has been replaced by other financial grievances and more American detainees, suggesting similar dramas may lie ahead. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Mehdi Karroubi, an Iranian cleric who ran for president in 2009 in an election that was followed by protests and a brutal crackdown, has resigned from his political party, according to the Iranian news media. – New York Times Dozens of Iranians have taken part in a rare demonstration outside Tehran's Evin prison to express their support for a jailed activist on hunger strike, Arash Sadeghi. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty In an unusual move, Iran and six world powers released previously restricted documents about their nuclear deal to enforce their view that Tehran is not circumventing limits on its limit of enriched uranium, which could be used to make nuclear weapons. – Associated Press Jenna Lifhits reports: Iran was given secret exemptions allowing the country to exceed restrictions set out by the landmark nuclear deal inked last year, some of which were made public this week by the United Nations nuclear watchdog and others that are likely still being withheld, according to diplomatic sources and a top nuclear expert – The Weekly Standard Open Letter: The time has come for the United States to stand by the Iranian people instead of holding secret discussions with corrupt Islamic fundamentalists. Iran has the capacity to be one of the most steadfast allies of the United States in the world once the Islamic regime is gone. We hope under your leadership the United States helps the Iranian people to take back their country from the Islamist gang which has been in charge for the last four decades, as the world without the Islamic Republic and the Islamic State is a better place. - Taghato Ray Takeyh writes: Since the inception of the Islamic Republic, Westerners enchanted by the clerics and their mysterious ways have insisted that their regime is essentially a pragmatic one. If only America set aside its animosity, it could forge a new relationship with the much misunderstood theocracy. But in reality it is a revolutionary regime that sees a resumed relationship with America as an existential threat. The clerical oligarchs need an American enemy to justify their repression and their costly and corrupt rule. They know that between our two nations there can never be permanent peace. And this is the most important lesson for the incoming president to learn. – National Review |
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