Iran suspected paying for North Korean chemical weapons to Syria. @mdubowitz @elalusa Report w/Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres.
"This is an Iranian attempt to deter the Trump administration from imposing further sanctions and punitive measures against their very provocative behavior," Landau added. "Even if the Iranians cannot achieve that target within five days, we still have a problem because Iran continues its aggressive path. "You have to remember that such threats were also made during the time of Obama, who as president did everything to calm Iran." Under the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 with the group of six world powers (the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany), Iran relinquished most of its uranium enriched at 20 percent. "From the beginning, the agreement was problematic," said Landau. "It is a weak agreement full of loopholes, and its problems are being exposed one by one. "We now understand that in a few weeks or months they'll be able to stock up (on enriched Uranium—ed), so what did this agreement accomplish? And what can be done against their threats? It is too late to cancel the agreement, but it has to be reinforced by a number of clauses. "The attitude toward Iran's behavior must be changed: missile tests, increased presence in Syria, the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah, and the establishment of missile manufacturing plants in Lebanon and Syria. All these things must be answered with determination." According to Landau, "Iran is acting in a way that allows us to predict its moves. The fact that it is rational does not mean that it is not aggressive, or that it does not have an agenda of regional hegemony. We slowly see how it expresses these (points). It spreads out, so that wherever anyone else leaves—Iran enters. We see this in both Iraq and Syria. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5006953,00.html • http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5006953,00.html • http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5006168,00.html CHINA: The PLA at 90:
On the Road to Becoming a World-Class Military? By Dennis J. Blasko, Elsa Kania, & Stephen Armitage, China Brief: “Shortly after the parade, Xi Jinping announced: “The PLA has basically completed mechanization and is moving rapidly toward ‘strong’ informationized armed forces,” achieving the 2020 goal of its “three-step development strategy.”” North Korean Missile Program Nears its Peak | Will Edwards, The Cipher Brief
Days after threatening a missile test aimed at the waters off the coast of the American territory of Guam and just ahead of the annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises taking place this week, Pyongyang released new propaganda posters highlighting the success of its recent intercontinental ballistic missile tests. Time is the Enemy in Halting North Korea Nuke Ambitions | Philip E. Coyle, Senior Science Fellow, Center for Arms Control "North Korea has advanced its missile programs by devoting a proportionately larger amount of its economy to missile developments and by obtaining technical help from other countries, notably Russia." North Korea No Stranger to Calculated Risks | James Kim, Director, Asan Institute for Policy Studies (Washington, D.C.) "North Korea need not launch missiles toward Guam to demonstrate the progress that they have made. They can conduct test launches into international waters anywhere in the Pacific, which would demonstrate their ability to manage re-entry and guide intermediate or long-range missiles to intended targets with precision." Syrian fighters defecting: Ahrar al-Sham, once hailed as one of the more moderate — and potent — military groups on the Syrian battlefield, is disintegrating rapidly and there is nothing its Turkish backers can do to save it, Sami Moubayed writes. Ahrar al-Sham once boasted nearly 20,000 fighters and played an instrumental role in every single rebel victory against government troops during the years 2013-2015. Turning a blind eye to one of its founder’s ties to al-Qaeda and its desire to set up an Islamic state, many in the West pinned high hopes on it, seeing it as a potential player in the future of Syria, especially after its troops joined in the fight against ISIS and agreed to support a political endgame to the Syrian conflict. However, over the past 10 days, massive defections have been recorded from Ahrar al-Sham. Hundreds are fleeing Ahrar camps and joining Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a rebel coalition headed by Ahrar’s former ally, Jabhat al-Nusra. READ THE STORY HERE
• Angola chooses a new leader.
• South Africa gives Grace Mugabe immunity. • Ivory Coast is in talks with a Chinese company for more dams US increases pressure: Washington on Tuesday imposed new North Korea-related sanctions, targeting Chinese and Russian firms and individuals for supporting Pyongyang’s weapons programs, but stopped short of an anticipated focus on Chinese banks, David Brunnstrom and Doina Chiacu write. The US Treasury designated six Chinese-owned entities, one Russian, one North Korean and two based in Singapore. The sanctions also targeted six individuals — four Russians, one Chinese and one North Korean. China reacted with irritation, saying Washington should “immediately correct its mistake” of imposing unilateral sanctions on Chinese companies and individuals to avoid damaging bilateral cooperation. READ THE STORY HERE
All Xi’s men: China’s recent confirmation of 26 new commanders for the People’s Liberation Army’s 13 group armies is another step in an ongoing shake up intended to strengthen the control of President Xi Jinping, writes Zi Yang for Asia Times. No leader remained with his old unit, with many receiving postings to far-away regions. The best explanation, says Zi, is that Xi hopes to curb military factionalism, better rendered in Chinese as “mountaintopism” or shantou zhuyi. READ ZI YANG’S STORY HERE
Assessment of Alexander Zakharchenko’s “Malorossiya” Proposition By Michael Sheldon, Divergent Options: “The Malorossiya proposition, as presented on July 18, 2017 by head of Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Alexander Zakharchenko, was intended to absorb Ukraine in its entirety under rebel control, relocating the capital to Donetsk. While success seemed unlikely, there were local political objectives to be gained." Russian Navy a More Capable Adversary Than It Appears
By Michael Kofman & Jeffrey Edmonds, RealClearDefense “Russia still depends on the remnants of a blue-water navy inherited from the Soviet Union, but a new force is slowly rising to take its place both above and beneath the waves. This navy will be different, with a strategy of its own.” Southeast Asia Grapples with Extremism Resurgence
By John Watts, The Cipher Brief: “Southeast Asia has a long and unbroken history of Islamic extremism dating back to the end of World War II." Talk of 'Preventive War' Rises in White House Over North Korea By David Sanger, The New York Times: “Not since 2002, as the United States built a case for war in Iraq, has there been so much debate inside the White House about the merits — and the enormous risks — of pre-emptive military action against an adversary nation." Thank you, Steve: The world owes President Donald Trump’s now former Chief Strategist, Steve Bannon, a debt of gratitude, writes the brilliant, unflinching David P. Goldman in his Spengler column for Asia Times. The press portrays Bannon as a bomb-thrower, says Goldman, but in defusing the North Korea issue by acknowledging there is no military solution to that country’s nuclear provocations he showed himself to be the most level-headed realist in the Administration. More than that, perhaps, he is one of the few people to understand that North Korea is a sideshow to the real threat of economic warfare being waged by China. READ SPENGLER HERE
USS John McCain Collides with Chemical Tanker Near Singapore By Sam LaGrone, USNI News: “USS John McCain (DDG-56) collided with the Liberian-flagged chemical tanker Alnic MC around 5:24 a.m. on Monday local time. The ship is now underway on its own power and heading into port in Singapore at the Changi Naval Base. Five sailors were injured in addition to the ten that are missing." 3 Questions Arising From Recent U.S. Navy Collisions
By Bryan McGrath, RealClearDefense: “Coming on the heels of the June collision involving the USS Fitzgerald (DDG 62) in which seven Sailors were killed, news of Monday’s collision between USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) and the Alnic MC—a 30,000-ton Libyan flagged oil and chemical tanker—naturally raises questions about U.S. Navy operations and the standards of seamanship and navigation practiced in the fleet.” The U.S. Navy's Greatest Enemy By Dave Majumdar, The National Interest: ““The U.S. combat fleet is already over-stretched,” Seth Cropsey, director of the Center for American Seapower at the Hudson Institute told The National Interest.” Chaebol in crosshairs: The head of South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission has told Hyundai Motor Group to dissolve cross-shareholdings in the conglomerate, Soyoung Kim and Hyjunjoo Jin write. Kim Sang-jo said he has been in talks with the autos-to-steel conglomerate about overhauling its complex ownership structure, which critics say gives too much power to its controlling family at the expense of shareholders. “Many people, including me, are telling Hyundai that they shouldn’t waste more time before dissolving cross-shareholding,” said Kim, who has been nicknamed “Chaebol Sniper” for his shareholder activist campaigns targeting South Korea’s powerful family-run conglomerates. “I’m in ongoing conversations with Hyundai. ”READ THE STORY HERE
Hidden political agenda: It is has become clear over the past two months that the border showdown between India and China on a remote plateau in the Himalaya mountains is not really about China building a road in a disputed area, Bertil Lintner writes. When China is involved in a confrontation near or across its frontiers there is always a hidden political agenda. China is attempting to drive a wedge between Bhutan and its traditional ally India, China’s main and traditional geopolitical rival. The sources of China’s frustration with New Delhi include its reluctance to join its One Belt One Road infrastructure development initiative and the long-time presence of the Dalai Lama and his Tibetan government in exile in India. READ THE STORY HERE
Mattis embarks on first official visit to Jordan
US Secretary of Defense James Mattis arrived in Jordan today for a meeting with Jordanian King Abdullah II and the chairman of Jordan’s joint chiefs of staff, Lt. Gen. Mahmoud Freihat. The Pentagon said Mattis and his Jordanian counterparts are expected to discuss the fight against the Islamic State as well as other “shared security interests.” Mattis will proceed to Turkey on Wednesday for a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Edrogan and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. RUSSIA'S ZAPAD WAR GAMING IN SEPTEMBER: NATO MEAUSRES RUSSIAN CAPABILITY, COMMUNICATIONS ETC. .8/18/2017
Last exit for North Korea and Afghanistan. @ambjohnbolton @thadmccotter
Former National Security Advisor Susan Rice acknowledged last week that America's policies regarding North Korea's nuclear-weapons program over the last three administrations had failed. She said, rightly, "You can call it a failure. I accept that characterization of the efforts of the United States over the last two decades." Former Vice President Al Gore said much the same. They should know. They served under President Bill Clinton, who started things rolling downhill with the Agreed Framework of 1994. This misbegotten deal provided Pyongyang 500,000 tons of heavy fuel oil annually and two light-water nuclear reactors in exchange for the North's promise to abandon its nuclear-weapons efforts. Pyongyang violated its promise before the ink was dry. In 1999, former Secretary of State James Baker denounced Clinton's approach as "a policy of appeasement." Baker's characterization also applies to much of the subsequent U.S. diplomacy. North Korea has always been willing to promise to abandon its nuclear ambitions to get tangible economic benefits. It just never gets around to honoring its commitments. After 25 years of failure, we need not tarry long (or at all) on more diplomacy with Pyongyang. Fred Ikle once characterized the North as capable of "boundless mendacity." He was being charitable. Talking to North Korea is worse than a mere waste of time. Negotiations legitimize the dictatorship, affording it more time to enhance its nuclear and ballistic-missile capabilities. Today, only one diplomatic option remains, and it does not involve talking to Pyongyang. Instead, President Trump should urge President Xi Jinping that reunifying the Korean Peninsula is in China's national interest. This is a hard argument to make, requiring reversal of decades of Chinese policy. It should have been broached years ago, but it is still doable. There is now growing awareness in China that maintaining the two Koreas, especially given the current nuclear crisis, does not benefit China long-term. Historically, the Korean Peninsula's 1945 partition was always intended to be temporary. Kim Il-Sung's 1950 invasion of South Korea and three years of ultimately inconclusive war resulted in hardening the bifurcation into its current manifestation. Beijing has backed the status quo, believing that North Korea provided a buffer between Chinese territory and U.S. military forces. Maintaining its satellite, however, has been expensive and risky. China has long supplied more than 90 percent of the North's energy needs, and vast quantities of food and other assistance to sustain Pyongyang's gulag. China has also expended enormous political and diplomatic energy, costing it precious international credibility, to protect the North's erratic regime. Initially, China saw the North's nuclear and ballistic-missile programs as a problem for America, Japan and South Korea rather than itself. That notion has disappeared, however, under the harsh prospect that today's nuclear crisis will be merely the first of many with North Korea. Moreover, Japan is now increasingly likely to seek its own nuclear capability, a nightmare for China in some respects more troubling than America. Confronted by this new, deeply threatening reality, Beijing's views on Korean reunification are ripe for change. China has never applied its uniquely strong economic leverage on Pyongyang because it feared so doing could cause catastrophic collapse of the North's regime. That would in turn produce two unacceptable consequences: massive Korean refugee flows across the border into China, and American and South Korean troops crossing the DMZ and quickly reaching the Yalu and Tumen Rivers. The answer to China's fear of uncontrol... |
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