Russia raises concern over 350 children taken to Syria, IraqRussia's ombudswoman on children’s rights, Anna Kuznetsova, said Tuesday that 350 children have been taken to Syria and Iraq by their parents. Kuznetsova’s office maintains a database containing the names and addresses of the children taken to the two countries. The database indicates that children have been taken from all regions in Russia but the overwhelming majority have been taken from the North Caucasus regions, with 200 coming from Dagestan alone.
Trump’s Full-Court Press Is Squeezing the Nukes Out of North Korea By Austin Bay, Observer: “The great Chinese strategist Sun Tzu said that the best strategy is to attack the enemy’s plans. With a soldier-scholar like Jim Mattis in the Trump administration, a stroke or two of Sun Tzu should surprise no one.” North Korea's New High-Performance Missile Engines
By Ankit Panda, The Diplomat: “One source told The Diplomat that North Korea, if it did develop and manufacture this RD-250-variant engine indigenously, likely “codeveloped” the system with Iran.”
Trump’s North Korea Calculus Underestimates China
By John R. Schindler, Observer: “President Donald J. Trump has spent this week making our mounting crisis with Pyongyang worse. Having repeatedly staked his prestige and credibility—and that of the United States—on preventing North Korea from becoming a full-fledged atomic power, he has now backed us all into a corner from which there may be no peaceful exit. For months, Trump has tweeted angrily at the North Korean regime, promising back in January before his inauguration that he would not permit Pyongyang to develop a nuclear-tipped missile capable of reaching the United States. “It won't happen,” the president-elect boasted on Twitter.”
NORTH KOREA: North Korea's Dangeously Rudimentary Nuclear C2 Systems
By Andrew O'Neil, Lowy Interpreter: “Conventional wisdom tells us that because North Korea’s elites are rational actors, they will conclude that the benefits of employing nuclear weapons will be outweighed by the costs. Regime extinction is identified as the most compelling cost, and Kim Jong-un’s instinct for self-preservation is said to override all other considerations.But the prospects of North Korea using nuclear weapons during crises, or in the initial stages of a conventional (that is, non-nuclear) conflict, are greater than generally acknowledged. This is not based on any assumption about the rationality or otherwise of the Kim Jong-un regime; rather, that nuclear first use may itself be seen as a rational option if a US first-strike is regarded as inevitable.”
NORTH KOREA: The Secret to North Korea's ICBM Success
By Michael Elleman, International Institute for Strategic Studies: “North Korea's missile programme has made astounding strides over the past two years. An arsenal that had been based on short- and medium-range missiles along with an intermediate-range Musudan that repeatedly failed flight tests, has suddenly been supplemented by two new missiles: the intermediate-range Hwasong-12 and the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), Hwasong-14. No other country has transitioned from a medium-range capability to an ICBM in such a short time. What explains this rapid progression? The answer is simple. North Korea has acquired a high-performance liquid-propellant engine (LPE) from a foreign source.” NORTH KOREA: North Korea Missile Re-entry Tech Still Lags: South Korea From Reuters: “North Korea still does not appear to have mastered missile re-entry technology and will take at least one or two more years to do so, although its ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead is advancing quickly, South Korea's vice defense minister said. Concern that North Korea is close to achieving its goal of putting the mainland United States within range of a nuclear weapon has underpinned a spike in tensions in recent months. U.S. President Donald Trump warned at the weekend that the U.S. military was "locked and loaded" if North Korea acted unwisely, although top U.S. officials said there was no imminent risk of a nuclear war.”
Fire and fury: The “Black Swan” scenario, triggered by a pre-emptive US attack on North Korea resulting in growth shocks, devastated supply chains, sharp currency gyrations and skyrocketing US debt that alters the trajectory of global living standards, is one of two possible outcomes of the rhetorical arms race between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump, William Pesek writes. The second, and most likely, eventuality is a proxy war on the economic front between Trump’s “America First” policy and a Chinese president calling Washington’s bluff. However, the threat of the Black Swan scenario is looming larger as salvos of jingoistic rhetoric fly over Guam. READ THE STORY HERE
Tactics and strategy: As the battle between Philippine troops and Islamic State-linked militants enters its third month in the besieged city of Marawi, it has become clear that Manila’s armed forces need to shift from jungle to urban warfare tactics, and undergo a massive overhaul to counter an increasingly fierce insurgency that is using drones, mortars, land mines and sophisticated ambush and sniper tactics to put it on the back foot, Noel Tarrazona writes. Both Beijing and Washington hope to help mold the Philippine military’s strategic transformation as the threat of global terrorism rises in the region. READ THE STORY HERE
How Did We Get To NOrth Korean Impass & CHINA'S GRAND STRATEGY WITH ITS CLIENT STATE IN PYONGYANG8/10/2017
Change in trajectory: North Korea said on Thursday that it was planning to fire missiles over Japan to land in the ocean near Guam in what may be a shift in its weapons testing program, not a threat of an immediate attack on Guam and its US military bases, Asia Times and Reuters report. Pyongyang and US President Donald Trump got into a war of words this week that unnerved regional powers and global investors. Trump said the North “will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen” if it threatened the United States. However, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who was in Guam on a previously scheduled visit, said he did not believe there was an imminent threat from North Korea. READ THE STORY HERE
The Continent
South African President Jacob Zuma survived a parliamentary vote Tuesday that could have pushed him from office, hanging on to sufficient backing within his African National Congress party amid growing claims of corruption and worries about a stumbling economy. – Washington Post Boko Haram militants killed at least 30 fishermen in raids on communities around Lake Chad in northeastern Nigeria, the governor of Borno state, residents and military sources said on Tuesday. - Reuters Rosa Whitaker and Gail Strickler write: For well over a decade, it has been increasingly difficult to find issues on which Republicans and Democrats can agree, but this is one: Since 2000, there has been a strong bipartisan consensus — in Congress and the White House — that increasing economic engagement with Africa furthers our country’s strategic, financial, political and humanitarian objectives. – Foreign Policy’s Elephants in the Room East Africa The Kenyan opposition leader, Raila Odinga, threw early results of the country’s presidential election into doubt on Wednesday, claiming that the electoral commission’s servers had been hacked to award the incumbent, Uhuru Kenyatta, a significant lead. – New York Times About 120 Rwandan peacekeepers have arrived in South Sudan, United Nations said on Tuesday, the first detachment of 4,000 extra troops approved by the U.N. last year to help protect the capital of Africa's newest country. - Reuters
North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, U.S. intelligence officials have concluded in a confidential assessment. – Washington Post
President Trump threatened on Tuesday to unleash “fire and fury” against North Korea if it endangers the United States as tensions with the isolated nuclear-armed state grow into perhaps the most serious foreign policy challenge yet in his young administration – New York Times North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered his military to carefully examine a plan for a missile strike on the U.S. military base on Guam, making an unusually explicit threat to attack America. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson ramped up pressure Tuesday on Southeast Asian nations to shut down North Korean front companies, seeking cooperation on sanctions enforcement from longtime allies despite recent friction. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) North Korea’s rapidly advancing nuclear program has prompted politicians in Japan and South Korea to push for the deployment of more powerful weapons, in what could lead to a regional arms race. – New York Times South Korean President Moon Jae-in discussed the need for a "complete" overhaul of his country's armed forces as North Korea makes progress with its missile weapons capabilities. – Washington Examiner Americans are “uneasy” about a possible conflict with North Korea, while many Democrats are also not confident in President Donald Trump’s capacity to handle a nuclear crisis with the country, according to a CBS News poll out Tuesday. - Politico The morning the news broke that North Korea could tip its ICBMs with nuclear warheads, the US general in charge of strategic deterrence said we could a learn a lot from Kim Jong-un. America prides itself on innovation, but today, said Gen. John Hyten, in matters military, our adversaries are innovating faster because they’re less afraid to fail. – Breaking Defense Sen. John McCain said Tuesday that President Trump should not threaten North Korea with "fire and fury" unless he is prepared to carry out those threats. – Washington Examiner North Korea says it released a Canadian pastor who has been serving a life sentence since 2015 for anti-state activities over health reasons. – Associated Press Editorial: North Korea’s steadily advancing nuclear weapons and missile programs are serious…Dealing with that will require patient pressure and skilled diplomacy, perhaps for years. Instead, Mr. Trump has strut into the arena with a jarring rhetorical grenade. – Washington Post Editorial: Knocking down a North Korean test missile would be “going kinetic,” in military jargon. But after 30 years of failed diplomacy, and with Pyongyang actively assisting Iran and other dangerous states in developing nuclear technology and delivery systems, military confrontation in some form looks more and more likely. Better a confrontation over a test missile today than full-on war over a real one tomorrow. – The Weekly Standard David Ignatius writes: The North Korean nuclear threat is a “hinge” moment for the United States and China, and for the new international order both nations say they want. If Washington and Beijing manage to stay together in dealing with Pyongyang, the door opens on a new era in which China will play a larger and more responsible role in global affairs, commensurate with its economic power. If the great powers can’t cooperate, the door will slam shut — possibly triggering a catastrophic military conflict on the Korean Peninsula. – Washington Post Frederic Hof writes: Mitigating and perhaps reversing the consequences of bad policy choices made by the Obama administration and its predecessor in the Levant and Mesopotamia will not be a twenty-minute project. It may be more than a twenty-year undertaking. The time to begin is now. – Atlantic Council Seth Jones writes: Al Qaeda today is a different organization from what it was even a decade ago. The movement is less centralized, less focused on terrorist operations in the West for the moment, and less popular. Based on these challenges, it is unclear whether al Qaeda or other Salafi jihadists will be able to rebound…But the Islamist extremism that al Qaeda represents will not go away soon. The ideology will survive in some form as wars in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East continue to rage. – Foreign Affairs
General John Allen, USMC (Ret.) and Michael O’Hanlon write: By formally changing the removal of Assad into a second-order issue, and one to be achieved through financial suasion over time rather than direct military action, the strategic use of economic power can help achieve most or all of our main objectives in Syria today. – The National Interest Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi writes: Simply cutting off the CIA program with no thought as to an alternative is a mistake. In the south, management of relations with the rebel groups through the Pentagon, as has now become the new status quo, is the way forward. Rebel-held Idlib on the other hand is likely going to be subject to a major offensive by the regime and its allies. If the desire is simultaneously to counter Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s influence while preventing a new humanitarian crisis and more large scale refugee flows into Turkey and Europe, then a Turkish intervention on the model of the “Euphrates Shield” project in the north Aleppo countryside pocket is the only viable option at this stage. – The American Spectator
The Nuclear Posture Review and the Future of the INF Treaty
By Mark B. Schneider, RealClearDefense: “In June 2017, an unclassified intelligence report by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, U.S. Air Force (NASIC), indicated that Russia had deployed the 3M14, a ground, sea, and submarine-launched cruise missile with a range of 2,500-km. The 3M-14 is the Russian Kalibr cruise missile. The military implications of the deployment of the Kalibr should be a significant issue in the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR).”
The re-election of Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s longtime president, had never been in question. But opponents and rights advocates say his nearly 99 percent margin of victory reflects what they call an oppressive political environment that stifles dissent in the central African nation. – New York Times A concrete bridge and a narrow, garbage-filled river divide the slum of Mathare into two parts, a space between ethnic groups and voting blocs that are competing fiercely — and many say dangerously — over Kenya’s presidential elections scheduled for Tuesday. – Washington Post China’s relationship with Africa — for decades defined by resource-for-infrastructure deals — is evolving, as Africa becomes wealthier and China’s foreign policy objectives grow more ambitious. – Los Angeles Times Two foreign advisers to Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga, who were expelled from the country days before Tuesday's election, said they had been seized from their homes by plainclothes policemen who also confiscated their computers. - Reuters South Sudan's army has captured the main rebel stronghold of Pagak near the Ethiopian border, forcing thousands of people to flee, the rebels said on Monday. - Reuters Central Africa More than 50 people have been killed in clashes between ethnic groups in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, three local aid workers said on Sunday, the largest death toll in fighting between the two groups for months. - Reuters A suicide bomber has killed at least seven people in a small town in northern Cameroon near the Nigeria border, a local official and a military source said on Sunday. - Reuters
Great Power Interaction: United States Options Towards Iran
By Phillip J. Giampapa, Divergent Options: “In the Middle East, the Trump Administration has signaled its preference to strengthen relationships with the Sunni Gulf states by way of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. By strengthening relationships with the Sunni Gulf states, as well as announcing an arms deal with Saudi Arabia, the United States appears willing to continue isolating Iran. This has the potential to exacerbate tensions with Iran, which if one views it through an international relations theory lens, Iran will attempt to counteract actual or perceived Saudi (read: Sunni) influence gains to maintain balance in the region, as well as prevent loss of Iranian influence.” Weekly Recon - Battle for Military Dominance, Size Matters ...
By Blake Baiers, RealClearDefense: “China has taken another step toward the full militarization of space with its recent flight test of its DM-3 anti-satellite missile. When operational, this capability will threaten the U.S. military’s information superiority, which it has long enjoyed.”
Aaron Friedberg writes: Beyond the Korean Peninsula, Pyongyang’s successful defiance of the United States will inspire others to believe that, with the right combination of audacity and subterfuge, they can do the same. The lessons that Tehran may draw from this drama are especially troubling. Meanwhile, the North’s growing stockpile of fissile material and its increasing expertise in the design and manufacture of weapons and delivery systems will raise the risk of onward proliferation to other states and possibly even to nonstate actors. The second nuclear age is just getting started. – National Bureau of Asian Research
Emily Estelle writes: The administration’s interest in Libya is well-placed. The U.S. must look beyond Haftar to develop a comprehensive strategy that will bring the greatest return on investment—a stable Libya that breaks the cycle of continuous intervention. – AEI’s Critical Threats
Iran’s Top Export to Latin America: Radical Islam By Emanuele Ottolenghi & Michaela Frai, RealClearDefense: “Brazil is not the only target of Iran’s efforts. Across the region, Iranian preachers and their local enablers have presented themselves as advocates of human rights and social justice to gain footholds among disenfranchised and marginalized communities in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru.” John Londegran writes: What comes next? Will Venezuela become another Cuba, with other countries in the region disapproving the brutal actions of its government, while taking only token measures to intervene? Will what is left of the Venezuelan military join the public to put an end to Maduro and to restore democracy? Will the other countries provide more than a show of disapprobation? One thing is clear, the criminal Nicolas Maduro negotiates in bad faith, and he will not cease his usurpation save at gunpoint – The Weekly Standard
Ariel Cohen writes: Without a clear strategy for economic and security involvement, Central Asia will remain what I called it in my 2005 book Eurasia in Balance —“a bridge too far.” That is not an option. With the world getting smaller and major security competition afoot in Eurasia, the Trump administration should not remain a bystander. – The National Interest
U.S., SOMALIA: U.S. Military Kills Shabaab Fighter in 'Kinetic Strike' By Bill Roggio, FDD's The Long War Journal: “US Africa Command (AFRICOM) killed one Shabaab fighter in a “kinetic strike” against an al Qaeda branch in southern Somalia on July 29. The offensive is the second of its kind reported by AFRICOM over the past month.” A car bomb exploded near a police station in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, on Sunday, killing at least six people and wounding at least 13 others, according to a police captain. – New York Times Population swells, climate change, soil degradation, erosion, poaching, global food prices and even the benefits of affluence are exerting incredible pressure on African land. They are fueling conflicts across the continent, from Nigeria in the west to Kenya in the east — including here in Laikipia, a wildlife haven and one of Kenya’s most beautiful areas. – New York Times A federal appeals court on Friday ordered Sudan to pay more than $7 billion in damages to American families of victims of the 1998 embassy bombings in Africa. – The Hill A senior election official in Kenya was found dead Monday, intensifying anxiety over whether the country can hold a fair and peaceful vote next week in a tightly contested presidential election. – New York Times The U.S. military said Monday it carried out a drone strike in Somalia that killed a member of the al-Shabab extremist group, while Somalia's government said it believes the strike killed a high-level al-Shabab commander responsible for several deadly bombings in the capital. – Associated Press China formally opened its first overseas military base on Tuesday with a flag raising ceremony in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, the same day as the People's Liberation Army marks its 90th birthday, state media said. - Reuters Rwandan President Paul Kagame, already in power for 17 years, predicted on Monday he would win overwhelming popular backing for a third term in elections this week, brushing off accusations of stifling political debate. - Reuters Malawi has issued an arrest warrant for its former President Joyce Banda over alleged abuse of office and money laundering offences over a two-year period when she was in office, a police spokesman said on Monday. - Reuters Asked to explain this remarkable recovery, many Rwandans point to one man — President Paul Kagame — and in a vote set for Friday, they will almost surely reelect him for a third seven-year term. Others, though, voice profound concern, arguing that behind their country’s dramatic socioeconomic gains lies a climate of suspicion and evidence of a creeping authoritarianism. – Washington Post
Kenya's years of strong economic growth -- a key factor in President Uhuru Kenyatta's reelection campaign -- has created jobs. But they are mostly low-paying, informal and coming at a rate economists say is too low to absorb the rapidly growing population. - Reuters Fred Muvunyi writes: Kagame is smart. He knows how to turn his country’s dark history to his own advantage. When westerners try to criticize him for his failure to uphold human rights, Kagame points out that their countries either failed to prevent the genocide or actively abetted it, skillfully using their own feelings of guilt to silence them. So far it’s been a highly effective strategy. But that doesn’t change the reality that Rwanda is a country where fear reigns supreme. – Washington Post
Joseph Bosco writes: Beijing’s interests and values may have more in common with Pyongyang’s than with the international community’s. If so, it is time for the West to recognize that reality and end the addictive and dangerous wishful thinking that has characterized policy toward China for 40 years. – The Diplomat
What Next for North Korea’s ICBM?
By John Schilling, 38 North: “This was the first time the North Koreans have conducted at launch at night, suggesting an emphasis on demonstrating operational rather than experimental launch procedures.”
Editorial: The North Korean crisis is accelerating as dictator Kim Jong Un moves closer to holding U.S. cities hostage to nuclear blackmail. Some in the U.S. intelligence community are admitting they have underestimated the threat, and President Trump again tweeted his frustration with China’s refusal to restrain its client state. A new U.S. strategy is needed, so it’s notable that CIA Director Mike Pompeo recently suggested that the Trump Administration may be contemplating a goal of regime change in Pyongyang. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
Editorial: One school of North Korea experts has been arguing for some time that sanctions will never induce the isolated regime of Kim Jong Un to give up its nuclear weapons nor its race to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles that could carry them to the United States. A good answer is that while they might be right, sanctions are still the best available option — and unlike others, such as negotiations with the regime, they have never been given a robust try. Fortunately, that may be about to change. – Washington Post Henry Sokolski and Zachary Keck write: Persuading the world’s major powers to sign on to new missile-trade restrictions will be no simple feat. Russia, for one, has already violated the existing INF Treaty. Yet before this violation, Moscow proposed expanding the INF to include other countries, especially China, the world’s largest land-based missile power. Bringing all parties to the table in good faith will be a long-term proposition. But given the missile threats that are already emerging, the time to begin is now. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) Stephen Bryen writes: We never know if a North Korean launch is a test, or if the missile is live with a warhead on it. We therefore have every justification in the world, starting with self-preservation to shoot down North Korean missiles. – Defense News |
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