SYRIA, IRAQ, YEMEN & LIBYA: A LOOK AT U.S. REGIONAL GOALS & RUSSIAN - TURKISH ALLIANCE BUILDING11/21/2017
Ongoing wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya; rising tensions between the Gulf Cooperation Council and Qatar; and the malign influence of Iran in the region are disrupting life in the Middle East and northern Africa like never before. AEI’s Critical Threats team uses open source intelligence analysis to track these developments and assess threats to US security each day. Sign up to receive their daily or weekly briefing products here, which vary from a daily roundup of new stories and articles out of Iran to a weekly assessment of what nefarious activity the al Qaeda network is up to.
GLORIA's Jonathan Spyer: Tehran winning, U.S. hesitates in Syria.
AGSI's Hussein Ibish on Riyadh and Jerusalem
Russia's winning the war for Turkish public's trust
Aided by the West's growing irritation with and neglect of Ankara, Moscow is convincing the Turkish public that Russia is its most reliable defense and security ally.
Turkey, Iran, Russia: trilateral distrust in Syria
Iran and Turkey are concerned that Russia might exploit them at some point to achieve its own goals in Syria. North Korea and the Lessons From Pakistan By Ankit Panda & Vipin Narang, War on the Rocks: “Earlier this month, an anonymous senior U.S. administration official offered an explanation for why North Korea pursued nuclear weapons. “North Korea’s goal is not to simply acquire these horrific weapons to maintain the status quo in the Peninsula,” the official noted. “[I]t is seeking these weapons in order to fundamentally change that status quo. Its primary goal, as stated … is to reunify [with] South Korea. These weapons are part of the plan to reunify with South Korea.”” In Afghanistan, the U.S. and Pakistan Fight a Conflict of Interests
By Faisel Pervaiz, Stratfor: “ ... even if Washington takes harsher punitive action toward Islamabad, it won't achieve the results it's hoping for. Militancy isn't the only enemy in Afghanistan; the United States is also fighting against the basic forces of geopolitics.” How is parliament supporting Sisi candidacy in 2018 elections? Members of Egypt's parliament took part in the "To build it" campaign and worked on postponing the discussion and approval of some draft laws that would negatively affect President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's popularity, as part of the efforts to endorse his candidacy for a second presidential term. Militias crack down on social, cultural life in Libya
A crack down on comic books and video games has pushed militias and civil society farther away from each other, prompting the youth to think about fleeing the country. This Afghan woman in her 20s, who asked that her name not be used for her safety, is part of a small, brave group of women serving in Afghanistan’s security forces. If her neighbors found out, she says, they’d surely kill her. - New York Times Taliban promotes gains in remote Kandahar district The video is similar to others produced by the Taliban that highlights the group's battlefield gains against overstretched Afghan forces. Coalition attacks Taliban command center and drug labs The US military and Afghan Air Force hit a Taliban command and control center and seven "drug labs" in what was described as "previously un-targeted safe havens in the South and Southwest" Afghanistan. U.S., AFGHANISTAN: F-22s Conduct First Airstrikes in Afghanistan
By Tara Copp, Defense News: “In a first use of expanded military authorities to in Afghanistan, U.S. warplanes destroyed eight Taliban opium production facilities in Helmand Province Sunday, the top U.S. general there said Monday.”
Editorial: If you read media coverage of the latest crisis in Lebanon, you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s all pretty simple: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is pushing Lebanon to the brink of war that will involve Israel and perhaps even America. But that simplistic take ignores the fact that the crisis was instigated a while ago — by Iran. - New York Post
Iran’s military presence in Syria is solely dedicated to the “war on terrorism,” Russia’s ambassador to Israel said Monday, seeking to defend a recent US-Russia agreement that would allow Iranian forces to remain in the war-torn country. - Times of Israel
The Lebanese president appeared to defend Hezbollah as necessary to resist Israel on Monday, after an Arab League statement accused the group of terrorism and noted it is part of Lebanon’s coalition government. - Reuters
The Iraqi Kurdish government has asked the U.S. to appoint a special envoy to mediate a deepening and potentially dangerous dispute between the central government in Baghdad and the semiautonomous Kurdish region, a top Kurdish official said Monday. - Wall Street Journal Two weeks after the crackdown began, Saudi officials and their supporters are attempting to justify the indefinite detentions as an ordinary part of a plea-bargaining process, similar to the approach Western prosecutors use with white-collar criminals. - New York Times Riyadh’s internal crackdown and escalating tensions with Iran have barely impacted domestic markets, but have amplified troubles in smaller neighbors like Qatar and Bahrain. - Wall Street Journal
The irresistible rise of MBS… and his possible downfall
BY UWE PARPART AND PEPE ESCOBAR In the first installment of a two-part series, Asia Times examines how the soon-to-be Saudi king's power grab was masterminded and what it portends
How Saudi regional moves impact Israel
The Saudi desire to change its role from a behind-the-scenes player to a forefront leader pushes it to engage in the US-led Mideast peace initiative.
How Riyadh orchestrated its own downfall in Lebanon
Saudi Arabia's policy shift toward Lebanon in trying to curb Hezbollah's power has failed miserably and made Saad Hariri the most popular Lebanese leader.
Yemen: Saudi Arabia’s Mess, the West’s Complicity
By Richard Menhinick, The Strategist (ASPI): “Yemen is a humanitarian disaster. It was a failed state even before its most recent civil war began nearly three years ago. But Saudi Arabian meddling is exacerbating the crisis and there’s no resolution in sight. Yemen is now a case study in how ends and means can diverge at the strategic level.”
Yemenis 'trapped in hell' as war escalates
With help from the United States and the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia’s blockade and airstrikes on Yemen have created the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
How to Combat Populist Demagogues Dani Rodrik doubts that reformist politicians can win unless they come clean about the high costs of neoliberal policies. Saudi Arabia's Revolution From Above Joschka Fischer says the government's push for radical change could prove risky if it succeeds, and even riskier if it fails. The Saudi Prince's Dangerous War Games Shlomo Ben-Ami worries that Lebanon will become the next battlefield between the Middle East's Sunni and Shia powers. A Wary Return to Raqqa Yassin al-Haj Saleh worries that his city's recent liberation will only marginalize local residents and fuel sectarian conflict. Saudi Arabia's Populist Temptation Ishac Diwan explores the fault lines underlying Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's political earthquake. Arab League tears into Hezbollah at emergency meeting
Arab leaders condemned Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia at an emergency meeting of the Arab League in Egypt on Sunday. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir warned that Riyadh will not stand idle in the face of Iran’s “aggression.” Meanwhile, Bahrain's Foreign Minister Sheikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa said that Hezbollah is conducting operations beyond Lebanon’s borders, calling it "a threat to Arab national security." Beirut's permanent representative to the Arab League, who attended in lieu of Lebanon's foreign minister, expressed reservations over the summit’s final statement, which accused Hezbollah of “supporting terrorism and extremist groups in Arab countries with advanced weapons and ballistic missiles. Read More Saudi purge finds echoes in Pakistan’s internal politics BY KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID The purge in Saudi Arabia is being used by Pakistani politicians to target each other over allegations of corruption Pakistan’s finance minister on hop as money-laundering case re-opens BY F.M. SHAKIL Already wanted in another graft case, Ishaq Dar, a close Sharif family associate, finds himself "the accused" in the re-opened Hudaibaya Paper Mills case. He's in the UK, however
Saudi former minister denounces violence against Israel as ‘un-Islamic.
Israel’s military chief has given an “unprecedented” interview to a Saudi newspaper underlining the ways in which the two countries could unite to counter Iran’s influence in the region. - The Guardian
Israel in no hurry to enter Saudi-Lebanese fray
Israel is not at all interested in opening a front against Hezbollah just to please Saudi Arabia.
Iran, Turkey divide Saudi-led bloc
Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is opposed to plans by the other members of the Anti-Terror Quartet to confront Iran and Hezbollah in the Levant, to maintain Lebanon's relatively stable position.
Israel willing to share intelligence with Saudis: Israeli army chief
BY ASIA TIMES STAFF With Trump administration “there is an opportunity to form a new international alliance in the region”
AEI'S CRITIAL THREATS PROJECT
Israel confirms discreet contact with Saudi Arabia to counter Iran
An Israeli minister on the security Cabinet, Yuval Steinitz, publicly acknowledged on Sunday that Israel maintains discreet connections with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries for the purpose of countering Iran. “The connection with the moderate Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, helps stop Iran,” said Steinitz. Steinitz said cooperation with Riyadh includes “improving” the 2015 nuclear accord and preventing Iran from establishing military bases along Syria’s border with Israel. Steinitz’s remarks come after Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eizenkot offered an interview to a Saudi paper last week in which he offered to cooperate with Saudi Arabia against Iran. Read More
An Israeli cabinet minister said on Sunday that Israel has had covert contacts with Saudi Arabia amid common concerns over Iran, a first disclosure by a senior official from either country of long-rumoured secret dealings. - Reuters
Are Israel, Saudi Arabia about to upgrade relations?
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi Prince Mohammed bin Zayed are dramatically changing relations with Israel.
Sunni Muslims in Lebanon who once looked to Saudi Arabia as a close ally and patron are venting anger at the kingdom over the resignation of their political leader, Prime Minister Saad Hariri. - Wall Street Journal
Turkish defense industry targeting South Asian market
Domestic demand for Turkey's defense products is reaching the saturation point, and Ankara has its eye on South Asia as the most lucrative potential market. Details of Abbas' mysterious Saudi trip still scarce Speculation is rife as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas returns from his sudden and unplanned visit to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Upheaval May Sow Seeds Of Economic Growth, Liberalization by Timothy Kane via Hill The news out of Lebanon is confusing: Prime Minister Saad Hariri abruptly resigned during a trip to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia earlier this month. US support for Saudi war in Yemen soars under Trump
The Defense Department more than doubled US refueling support for Saudi Arabia’s campaign against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen over the past year amid rising congressional opposition. Iran, Turkey have own plans for Iraq's strategic Sinjar The Islamic State has been largely driven out of Iraq, but Turkey and Iran both remain intensely interested in certain areas. Putin-Trump statement on Syria contradicts Erdogan’s calculations A joint statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump that there is no military solution in Syria infuriated Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A senior commander defected to Turkey on Wednesday from the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a leading combatant in the fight against Islamic State, Syrian rebel officials said, in the first such departure from its higher ranks. - Reuters Syrian Kurdish leaders voiced support on Wednesday for a longer-term role for U.S. forces in Syria once Islamic State is defeated, after the United States signalled it would not pull out before there was progress towards a political solution. - Reuters The Syrian army backed by Russian jets on Wednesday stepped up shelling and air strikes on a besieged rebel-held enclave in Damascus a day after rebels stormed an army base in the area, rebels, a war monitor and residents said. - Reuters Six Russian long-range bombers struck Islamic State targets near the town of Albu Kamal in Syria’s Deir al-Zor Province on Wednesday, the Russian Defence Ministry said in a statement. - Reuters TURKEY, LIBYA, IRAN East Libyan forces said they launched air strikes against suspected Islamic State militants on Wednesday south of the jihadist group’s former stronghold of Sirte. - Reuters Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held talks with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Doha. - Al Jazeera Turkey detains US-backed Syrian rebel leader Turkish intelligence services have detained and are questioning Col. Talal Silo, the senior spokesman for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a close US ally in northern Syria, Turkish media reported today. Turkey considers the SDF's People’s Protection Units (YPG) to be a terrorist group. It remains unclear whether Silo surrendered to Turkish officials or was captured. Silo, a Turkmen, was a colonel in the Syrian national army before the civil war. He was the founder of the Turkmen-majority Seljuk Brigade, which joined the SDF in 2105. Read More Syrian regime bombards Damascus suburbs The Syrian army stepped up its shelling of a besieged opposition-held enclave in Damascus on Wednesday after rebels stormed an army base in the area on Tuesday. The army’s offensive was supported by Russian airstrikes. Rebel groups, led by the Islamist faction Ahrar al-Sham, attacked a Syrian army complex in Eastern Ghouta, catching Damascus and Moscow by surprise and triggering the bombardment of the besieged area, which is located inside one of the agreed-upon de-escalation zones. Also on Wednesday, Russian long-range bombers delivered a series of strikes on Islamic State targets in the town of Abu Kamal in eastern Deir ez-Zor province. Read More Libya's rogue militias cut capital’s water supply A group of armed men cut off water supplies to the Libyan capital Tripoli, which indicates the fragility of resources in a country plagued by chaos. Iran's path to becoming an LNG exporter
Iran is taking steps to export liquefied natural gas after having previous ambitions to do so scuttled by sanctions.
Egypt faces high expectations from Saudi Arabia and its other Gulf Arab benefactors that it will have their back as tensions rise with their rival Iran, including throwing the weight of its military — the largest standing Arab army — into the crisis if needed. - Associated Press Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood leader loses appeal An Egyptian court on Wednesday rejected an appeal lodged by Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Badie against his 25-year prison sentence. In 2016, the Ismailiya criminal court issued the sentence against Badie and 35 other defendants on charges of inciting violence and sabotage following the 2013 military coup against President Mohammed Morsi. The deadly clashes left three people dead and 16 wounded. Most Muslim Brotherhood leaders, including Morsi, are serving comparable life sentences. Read More Sisi's opponents prepare for tough run in Egypt's presidential election
With an eye on Egypt's presidential elections in March 2018, opposition candidates are preparing to potentially run against President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and for any suppression they may face from the regime Marines Return to Helmand: Blueprint for Trump's Afghanistan Strategy?
By Shashank Bengali, Los Angeles Times: “When U.S. Marines entered the Afghan military's operations control center at an airfield here in April, they found a scene of confusion. Afghan officers were coordinating operations against Taliban insurgents using paper maps taped to the walls. They were uncertain of the locations of key mosques, hospitals, bridges – even their own ground troops.” |
Archives
March 2024
Categories |