ALLAH'S ANGELS & BLACK WIDOWS, THE CHECHEN WOMEN OF WAR & WHY RUSSIA RETURNED TO AFGHANISTAN11/15/2017
Before Putin: Allah's Angels: Chechen Women in War by Paul J. Murphy.
“In this comprehensive portrait of the women of Chechnya in modern war, Paul Murphy challenges conventional thinking on why they fight and are willing to kill themselves in the name of Allah. His book covers the two wars with Russia in 1994 and 1999 and the present conflict with Islamic Jihadists. It argues that these wars forced Chechen women to venture far beyond their traditional roles and advance their human rights but that the current movement championing traditional Islam is taking those rights away. Drawing on personal interviews, insider resources, and other materials, Murphy presents powerful portrayals of women who fight in the Chechen Jihad, including snipers, suicide bombers and the mysterious “Black Widows,” as well as women who collect intelligence, hide arms, and perform other non-combatant roles.” http://www.amazon.com/Allahs-Angels-Chechen-Women-War/dp/1591145422/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1461459442&sr=1-2&keywords=paul+murphy+chechen
Why Russia Is Back in Afghanistan
By David Lewis, The Conversation: “In Afghanistan, the Kremlin is covertly supporting the Taliban and other groups, and hosting regional talks with Pakistan, Iran and China. And whereas Moscow was strongly opposed to the Taliban throughout Afghanistan’s civil war in the 1990s, it seems a U-turn is underway.” Congress abandons constraints on Kurdish aid US lawmakers wary of Iraqi Kurds’ independence push have shelved their concerns amid Baghdad’s Iran-backed push to reassert control. An air raid by the Saudi-led military coalition put Yemeni airport in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa out of service on Tuesday, jeopardizing relief shipments to a country on the brink of famine, the state news agency SABA reported. - Reuters
The Yemen conflict possesses a unique confluence of characteristics that are highly conducive for a Syria-style Russian diplomatic intervention, and provides Vladimir Putin with a low cost opportunity to highlight Moscow’s leverage in the Middle East. - The National Interest Saudi Arabia has embarked on another foreign policy adventure by intervening in Lebanon's delicate sectarian power balance to undermine Iranian-backed Hezbollah. - Bloomberg
Rabin’s forgotten plan for two-state solution
Between 1993 and 1995, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin had developed a vision for a permanent status agreement that is still espoused by many veterans of the Israeli security establishment.
Libya’s ongoing civil war, coupled with weak governance and law enforcement, creates the perfect crucible for ISIS and al Qaeda to extend their operations and continue attacking Europe and the United States. How can these groups in Libya be defeated? In her new report, “A Strategy for Success in Libya,” Critical Threats team senior al Qaeda analyst Emily Estelle lays out a strategy for the US to help end the crisis in Libya that entails resolving the Libyan political crisis, closing governance and security gaps at the substate level, and identifying, training, and advising Libyan partner forces in destroying Salafi-jihadi threats. Access the full report.
For a succinct account of the crisis in Libya, including the diverse set of actors involved and the framework behind Estelle’s strategy to end the civil war in Libya, read the report’s accompanying one-pager here. ICYMI: To coincide with the release of “A Strategy for Success in Libya,” AEI hosted an event that included a panel featuring the report’s author, Emily Estelle; former senior director for the Middle East on the National Security Council, Derek Harvey; and senior resident fellow for North Africa at the Atlantic Council, Karim Mezran. Watch the event here.
A Strategy for Success in Libya: AEI Critical Threats Project Quick Take
A new report from Critical Threats Project senior analyst Emily Estelle provides a way forward. Estelle recommends a strategy to end the Libyan civil war and close the governance gaps that make communities vulnerable to Salafi-jihadi groups like al Qaeda and ISIS. The U.S. should lead a smart intervention now to end the Libya crisis. The alternative is persistent instability in North Africa and another unending counterterrorism campaign. Estelle argues in The Hill that Libya is the right place to begin a strategic reset in American counterterrorism policy. Success in Libya will strike a blow against the global Salafi-jihadi movement and set the U.S. on a path to victory in other theaters.
The Middle East and its watchers worldwide, always prone to wild gossip and conspiracy theories, have been especially inundated with rumors and speculation surrounding former Lebanon Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation and Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s (MBS) purge of family members and elites. In a new AEIdeas blog, Danielle Pletka provides some much-needed analysis on the likely reasons behind MBS’s power play and his increasing desire to push back on Iran. Pletka concludes that the real motive behind MBS’s actions is the coming battle with Iran. “That means anyone who has other ideas about how Saudi Arabia should position itself in the region, anyone who does not want Saudi Arabia to leap into the 21st century, and anyone who believes accommodations should be made with Iran is out the door.” Read more.
Will MBS become king of Saudi Arabia before the end of the year? Will he maintain the approval of the Saudi people? And what steps will he take next in this struggle for control and reform in the House of Saud? Andrew Bowen answers these questions and more in an AEIdeas blog. Find it here.
Iran taking Saudi rhetoric, actions seriously
The Saudi-Iranian clash that has Lebanon swirling in the middle could spiral out of control.
GEOPOLITICAL MONITOR REPORT ON THE SAUDI COUP
Mattis hints at long-term role for US in Syria
US Secretary of Defense James Mattis told reporters on Monday that the US military will keep fighting the Islamic State (IS) in Syria until UN-backed peace talks succeed. “We’re not just going to walk away right now before the Geneva process has traction,” Mattis told reporters at the Pentagon, stressing that the US military’s long-term objective is to prevent IS from returning. “The enemy hasn’t declared that they’re done with the area yet, so we’ll keep fighting as long as they want to fight,” he said. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia announced that it will hold an “expanded” meeting of the Syrian opposition in Riyadh from Nov. 22 to Nov. 24. The meeting aims to get opposition parties on the same page for the Geneva talks. Read More Saudi Arabia vows to reopen Yemen ports Saudi Arabia's ambassador to the United Nations, Abdallah al-Mouallimi, announced Monday that the kingdom will reopen Yemen’s government-controlled ports in Aden, Mokha and Mukalla within 24 hours. The announcement follows international condemnation of the Saudi blockade imposed after a missile launched from Yemen was intercepted near Riyadh’s airport. However, the ambassador said ports controlled by the Houthi rebels, including Hodeidah, will remain closed pending “a more robust verification and inspection mechanism” aimed at "preventing the smuggling of weapons, ammunition, missile parts and cash.” Most Yemeni imports, including humanitarian aid, flow through Hodeidah. Thousands of Yemenis took to the streets of the Houthi-controlled capital, Sanaa, on Monday to denounce the blockade. Read More US House debates Yemen war for first time The US House of Representatives on Monday debated US support for the Saudi-led war against the Houthis in Yemen for the first time since it began in 2015. Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., offered a resolution that passed 366-30. The vote, however, only took place after congressional leaders watered down the initial resolution, replacing its focus on US refueling, intelligence and targeting support with criticism of Iran’s support for the Houthis. Read More Saudi Arabia’s dramatic moves to counter Iran in the region appear to have backfired, significantly ratcheting up regional tensions and setting off a spiral of reactions and anger that seem to have caught the kingdom off guard. - Associated Press
Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani said on Tuesday that Arab states that imposed sanctions on his country in June over allegations of supporting terrorism were not interested in a solution to the crisis. - Reuters A suicide bomber detonated a car packed with explosives outside a camp used by security force in Yemen’s southern city of Aden on Tuesday killing at least four people, witnesses said. - Reuters Forty years after historic visit to Israel by Egypt's Sadat, both countries further apart When visiting Jerusalem 40 years ago, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat had a vision for Israeli-Palestinian peace, but he was led astray. Morocco’s King Mohammed VI travels to Qatar, the second stop on a trip to the Gulf following his visit to the United Arab Emirates this past week.French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire head to Algeria for a bilateral economic forum. Key members of the international coalition against the Islamic State meetin Amman, Jordan.Representatives from Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria meet in Cairo to discuss efforts to promote security and stability in Libya. The US House Foreign Affairs panel takes up sanctions on Hamas and cuts to Palestinian aid. Why Israelis support Netanyahu despite scandals Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still polling well despite the increasing entanglement of himself and his close associates in potentially criminal scandals. Israel unimpressed by US-Russia deal to limit Iran's presence in Syria
Israel on Sunday expressed skepticism over a Syria deal that the United States, Russia and Jordan approved on Saturday. The agreement was made in Vietnam on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit following a meetingbetween Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Under the deal, Russia agreed to keep Iran-backed forces, including Hezbollah and other Shiite militias, a short distance away from the border with Israel. Israel’s minister for regional cooperation, Tzachi Hanegbi, said that the agreement “does not meet Israel’s unequivocal demand that there will not be developments that bring the forces of Hezbollah or Iran to the Israel-Syria border in the north.” Israeli officials have also said that Israel retains its right to strike Syria if necessary. Meanwhile, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot met with US Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, the commander of the US European Command, in Brussels over the weekend to discuss Iran’s presence in Syria. This was their second meeting in two weeks. Read More Congress forced to debate US role in Yemen war The US House of Representatives this week will debate America’s participation in the Saudi-led war against the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen for the first time since it was launched in March 2015. Floor debate begins Monday on a resolution from Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., with a vote possibly as early as that evening. An alliance of liberal Democrats and non-interventionist Republicans are demanding a vote on the issue under the War Powers Act of 1973, which guarantees floor action on their bill. The resolution itself is fairly meek following negotiations with House leadership. Original language calling on the Donald Trump administration to end all US operations in Yemen besides those aimed at al-Qaeda and “associated forces” has been replaced with a call on all parties to “prevent civilian casualties and to increase humanitarian access.” The bill’s real achievement, however, is to force a public debate over US military support for the Saudi coalition, which has been accused of blatant disregard for civilian life. Aid groups accuse Saudi Arabia and its allies of starving Yemen of vital humanitarian assistance, while the UN has warned that the impoverished country could face the world’s largest famine in decades after all but one entry point into Yemen was closed last weekend. While the coming vote is the first to directly address US involvement in Yemen, the Senate has held a couple of votes on US arms sales that amount to proxy votes on the war. In September 2016, senators voted 71-27 to sell the Saudis $1.15 billion worth of tanks; nine months later, a June vote on a $500 million guided-missile sale only yielded a much narrower margin of 53-47. Separately, House lawmakers sought to defund US operations supporting Saudi Arabia in Yemen in this year’s defense authorization bill, but the provision did not survive reconciliation with the Senate. Tillerson voices ‘concerns’ over Saudi Arabia purges US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson told reporters today that he has “concerns” over Saudi Arabia's large-scale purge of elites accused of corruption. "My own view is that ... it raises a few concerns until we see more clearly how these particular individuals are dealt with,” Tillerson said. However, he qualified the statement by noting that the purge is “well intended.” Tillerson noted that he spoke with his Saudi counterpart, Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, two days ago. Read More The Future Has Arrived for Mohammed bin Salman // Kristian Coates Ulrichsen But in the wake of his ruthless purge, can he avoid the pitfalls and excesses of a previous generation of Saudi leaders? Saudi Arabia said Monday that the Saudi-led coalition fighting Shiite rebels in Yemen will begin reopening airports and seaports in the Arab world’s poorest country, days after closing them over a rebel ballistic missile attack on Riyadh. - Associated Press
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Friday that a wave of arrests among the elite in Saudi Arabia raises “a few concerns,” as he is awaiting word on “how these particular individuals are dealt with.” - Wall Street Journal The Saudi-led coalition carried out air strikes on the defence ministry in Yemen's rebel-held capital Sanaa late Friday, witnesses and rebel media said, leaving at least three civilians wounded. -Agence France Presse King Salman isn’t planning to abdicate in favor of his son, a senior Saudi official said, dismissing mounting speculation that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will soon ascend to the throne. -Bloomberg A top UAE official warned a high-powered gathering of U.S. government, military and business leaders on Sunday that Iranian-sponsored terror, while “similar” to al-Qaeda and ISIS, “has greater potential” for impacting negatively on the region and the world. -Defense News Lebanon is ramping up its diplomatic outreach to Saudi Arabia amid growing talk of war between the two countries. The leader of the Maronite Church, Cardinal Bechara al-Rai, is expected to travel to Riyadh on Monday for a historic meeting with King Salman, Lebanon’s Daily Star reports. What had been billed as a momentous occasion to modernize Saudi Arabia’s ultra-conservative society – an unprecedented visit by one of the Middle East’s leading Christian leaders – when it was first announced earlier this month is fast turning into a desperate peace mission. Rai will be carrying a message from Lebanese President Michel Aoun, according to the Daily Star, and is expected to meet with Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who mysteriously resigned from inside Saudi Arabia last weekend and hasn’t returned home since. The visit comes amid rapidly rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran that risk dragging the region into a new conflict. Days after Hariri resigned, citing undue pressure from the Lebanese Shiite party-cum-militia Hezbollah, Saudi Minister for Gulf Affairs Thamer al-Sabhan on Monday said Beirut would “be dealt with as a government declaring war on Saudi Arabia” because of Hezbollah’s “acts of aggression.” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah responded in kind today, accusing Riyadh in a televised address of having “declared war” on Lebanon and describing Hariri's resignation as an “unprecedented Saudi intervention” in Lebanese politics. Rai’s visit comes as other world leaders have rushed to defuse the situation. French President Emmanuel Macron met with King Salman on Thursday and discussed the government crisis in Lebanon. And the US State Department today released a statement from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recognizing Hariri as the prime minister and calling him a “strong partner of the United States.” France says Lebanese prime minister is not under Saudi house arrest France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian met Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Thursday in Saudi Arabia following Hariri’s abrupt resignation from inside the kingdom last weekend. Although Hariri has remained in the country since, Le Drian said he appears to have freedom of movement. Lebanese officials, however, told Reuters on Thursday that Saudi Arabia has Hariri under house arrest and is carefully coordinating his movements after forcing him to resign. Additionally, US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said on Thursday that the US charge d‘affaires in Riyadh met with Hariri but would not disclose where the meeting was held or weigh in on Hariri’s status. French President Emmanuel Macron was also in Saudi Arabia on Thursday for unscheduled talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. It remains unclear if Macron himself had any contact with Hariri while in Riyadh. Walid Jumblatt, a top Lebanese Druze politician, has publicly called on Hariri to return regardless of whether his sojourn in Saudi Arabia is “forced or voluntary.” Read More Lebanon’s prime minister, Saad Hariri, whose mysterious sojourn in Saudi Arabia has shaken the Middle East, said in a television interview on Sunday night that he was able to move freely, that he had left Lebanon in order to protect himself and that he would return home “within days.” - New York Times
Lebanese dollar bonds rebounded on Monday after Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri said he would return to the country soon and could rescind his resignation if Shi‘ite group Hezbollah agreed to stay out of regional conflicts. - Reuters Lebanese President Michel Aoun said Sunday that Saad Hariri, who resigned as prime minister in Saudi Arabia last weekend, has been "restricted" in his movements. - Agence France Presse Baghdad, Kurds duel for Washington’s affections Iraq’s central government and its Kurdish region are sending dueling delegates to Washington next week to persuade Congress and the Donald Trump administration to pick their side in the ongoing territorial dispute. Parliamentary speaker Salim al-Jabouri, a Sunni Arab who has led mediation efforts between Baghdad and Erbil, will be in town Tuesday through Thursday to try to convince skeptical policymakers that last month’s recapture of Kirkuk and other disputed areas was a legitimate exercise of Baghdad’s federal power. Jabouri is scheduled to meet with his counterpart, House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., before addressing the US Institute of Peace on Thursday. Jabouri’s arrival comes on the heels of Vice President Osama al-Nujaifi’s visit this past week. Separately, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) head of foreign affairs Falah Mustafa Bakir will be making the rounds starting Sunday to advance the KRG’s narrative that Baghdad’s response to the Kurds’ September independence vote was little more than an Iranian coup. Bakir is “eager to discuss attacks on the KRG peshmerga forces by the Iraqi military and Iranian-backed militia forces that frequently use US military equipment – even though the Kurds are longtime US allies,” a lobbyist for the KRG wrote in an email inviting reporters to interview Bakir. The accusation resonates with key US lawmakers such as Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain, R-Ariz., who has threatened to withhold arms sales to Baghdad if the fighting between the two US allies continues. The visits come as Baghdad is ramping up economic pressure on the KRG economically. Iraq’s central bank has given private lenders until Tuesday to close their branches in the region, one of the financial restrictions imposed in retaliation for the referendum. Hezbollah leader seeks to defuse tensions with Saudi Arabia Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to deliver a televised speech today addressing last weekend’s resignation of Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri from inside Saudi Arabia. According to Lebanese media outlets, Nasrallah will “stress the need for self-restraint and a solution for the crisis.” The tone mirrors that of Hezbollah patron Iran, which has also called for calm amid bellicose rhetoric from Riyadh following a missile attack by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Nasrallah's speech is also expected to address the possibility of war with Israel, the situation in Syria after the fall of the Islamic State and the crisis in Yemen. Read More The Middle East Is Nearing an Explosion // Robert Malley Fear is the one thing preventing it—but could also precipitate it Turn on a television or scroll social media in Iraq over the last three weeks and by almost any measure, more conflict appears imminent between the federal government in Baghdad and the Kurdish region in the north. - New York Times Since routing the Kurds in October, Iraqi forces have scrubbed out their sun-emblazoned flag and replaced pictures commemorating Kurdish Peshmerga fighters killed in the war against Islamic State with portraits of their own “martyrs.” - Wall Street Journal The United States and Russia issued a presidential joint statement saying there was "no military solution" to the war in Syria after their leaders met briefly on the sidelines of a regional summit in Vietnam. - Agence France Presse The Islamic State group recaptured Albu Kamal in eastern Syria on Saturday after a fierce fightback to save the last urban bastion of its collapsing "caliphate". - Agence France Presse Israel signaled on Sunday that it would keep up military strikes across its frontier with Syria to prevent any encroachment by Iranian-allied forces, even as the United States and Russia try to build up a ceasefire in the area. - Reuters What those fighters [Shiite Afghans] might do when they come home is now very much on the minds of officials who fear that Afghanistan may become the next great sectarian battleground between Iran… and Saudi Arabia. - New York Times
Bin Laden files confirm Michael Flynn’s analysis of Al Qaeda 2016 @michaelledeen. @fdd
https://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/bin-laden-files-reveal-growing-terrorist-threat-u-s/ IRANIAN MISSILE CAP IS A SHAM, LOOKING AT IRANIAN CAPABILITIES & LEBANON, SYRIA FALL TO TEHRAN11/9/2017
Iran's New Missile Cap Offer Is a Total Sham
By Richard Goldberg & Behnam Ben Taleblu, The National Interest: “Last week, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that the country’s Supreme Leader had mandated "cap" on the range of Iran’s surface-to-surface ballistic missile force of 2,000 kilometers. According to U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Dan Coats, the regime can already “strike targets up to 2,000 kilometers from Iran’s borders,” a range sufficient to hit both U.S. military bases in the region as well as the entire state of Israel.”
Saudi Arabia is more aggressively confronting its rival Iran on multiple fronts. It’s a policy that risks sharpening several conflicts in the Middle East, even though so far it has failed to score any successes in stemming Tehran’s influence. - Associated Press Iraq’s highest-ranking Sunni leader said Tuesday the growing influence of Iranian-backed Shiite militias looms as the nation’s most pressing future security threat and called for bolstering U.S. military aid to Sunni forces. - Associated Press Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri left Saudi Arabia for the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, dispelling rumors that he was being held by the kingdom against his will since he resigned abruptly over the weekend. - Wall Street Journal President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has said that Egypt is not considering taking any measures against Hezbollah despite Saudi Arabia's call for sanctions against the Lebanese Shi'ite political and military group. - Reuters The shocking resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister on Saturday during a trip to Saudi Arabia has left defense industry leaders and observers speculating about the impact on a U.S military aid program to the Lebanese Army. - Defense News
The final ground-based interceptor for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system — designed to protect the homeland from intercontinental ballistic missiles threats from North Korea and Iran — is now in place at Fort Greely, Alaska, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency has confirmed. - Defense News |
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